1026 S Huron Rd · Bay City, MI 48631

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 1950 Est $199k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy the perfect blend of cozy cabin charm and everyday functionality in this versatile Kawkawlin Township home! Nestled on a sprawling 0.88-acre lot just minutes from Saginaw Bay, this 3-bedroom home offers a warm, lodge-like atmosphere across 1,397 square feet of comfortable living space. The smart layout features surprisingly spacious rooms and a highly practical laundry area equipped with a bonus utility-style shower and bathroom & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; the ultimate setup for washing up after outdoor projects, gardening, or a successful day out on the water. Outside, the massive, park-like backyard is a dream canvas for families, pet owners, and hobbyists alike, offering

Key facts

• Massive backyard
• Sprawling lot
• Built 1950

Tags

• SPRAWLING LOT
• MASSIVE BACKYARD
• QUICK ACCESS TO MARINAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $124,847 (4.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.87%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,744
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1018 S Huron Rd	0.02mi	3/1.5	1,325 (-2%)	22mo	$189,000	$143	76
1916 E Parish Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	24mo	$151,000	$117	63
2155 Wetters Rd	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,436 (+6%)	9mo	$230,000	$160	58
1825 E North Boutell Rd	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,150 (-15%)	6mo	$169,000	$147	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $82,108
• Equity at exit: $117,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.40×
• Total profit: $232,801
• Equity at exit: $252,561

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48631

• Home prices YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,248 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $868/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,023

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $130,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $130,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $130,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-27
    listed $130,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $868 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,435 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$567/yr (+$47/mo · 65.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$868
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,199
• − Management: −$1,199
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $3
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1
• After-tax cash flow: $2,136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 4,058

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 11% German 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.70%
• Current HPI: 501.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $130,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $868 · -43.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.