649 Union Ave · Providence, RI 02909

$339,900

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1920 6,969 sqft lot Est $418k · 19% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

THREE FAMILY IN THE HEART OF SILVER LAKE. FEATURES: 2 BEDS EACH FLOOR VINYL SIDING MAINTENANCE FREE EXTERIOR, LARGE 2 CAR GARAGE, ADDITIONAL PARKING FOR 8 CARS CALL FOR PRIVATE SHOWING

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($34k/yr) — positive. Per door: $940/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $340k).
• Recommended offer: $335k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 4.2% in Providence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#2 in RI, #794 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F.
• Providence (urban): math 8% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #34 of 39 in RI (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 776 units permitted in Providence County in 2024 (229 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,389/mo this rent would consume 119% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 2000% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Providence County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $95k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $334,801 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.55%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $418,080
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42 Wales St	0.61mi	6/2.0	2,288 (+10%)	14mo	$460,000	$201	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $128,933
• Equity at exit: $50,680

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.80×
• Total profit: $361,921
• Equity at exit: $29,388

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 31 Tenant-Leaning
• State Rhode Island: 31 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; strong tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 02909

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,389 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax from tax record: −$304 /mo · $3,642/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,342
• Net cashflow: $2,820

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,820

Max offer price $339,900

Occupancy floor 51%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1	$6,390
Total (3 units)			$6,389

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Calef St Unit 16 Cranston, RI	5.0	3.0	3000	$3,500	$1.17	17d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2021-03-18
   soldstatus $310,000
2. 2021-02-04
   status Pending
3. 2021-01-20
   listed $339,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast RI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,642 · $304/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,591 · $383/mo
• Expected delta: +$949/yr (+$79/mo · 26.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $76,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$3,642
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,133
• − Management: −$6,133
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable income: $30,132
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,232
• After-tax cash flow: $26,605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Providence
• NCES district ID: 4400900
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,197
• Composite: 10.12/100
• National rank: #9803
• State rank: #34 of 39 in RI

Livability — Providence

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #794

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Providence, RI
• County: Providence County · 548,917 people
• City population: 212,734
• Metro: Providence-Warwick, RI-MA
• Population (ZIP): 46,014
• Household income: $64,649
• Rent vs Own: 60.2% rent · 39.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2000.0

Population outlook (Providence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 653,469 people
• By 2030: 660,819 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 672,747 · +3.0%
• By 2050: 683,741 · +4.6%
• By 2075: 720,435 · +10.2%
• By 2100: 741,582 · +13.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Two or more races 23% White 22% Black 12% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Russian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 43% English-only · Spanish 50% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Providence

• 2024 margin: D (+14.4) · D 56.1% · R 41.7% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 34.4pp · 2024: 14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.4 2020: D+22.9 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+34.9 2008: D+34.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.78%
• Current HPI: 474.9956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.68%
• Metro: Providence-Warwick, RI-MA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.25%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in RI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$373B
▸Food Distribution	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$14B
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$4B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2021-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $310,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-04 Pending — RIS
• 2021-01-20 Listed $339,900 RIS

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,642 · -37.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.