622 Guinevan St · Bayard, NM 88023

$74,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,028 sqft · SingleFamily · 113 Days on market

Built 1960 6,970 sqft lot ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the mining district of Bayard, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home was built in 1960 and has 2058 sq ft of living. 2 car attached carport. Rock wall with chain link fencing. Metal roof. Lot size is . 166.

Key facts

• Rock wall
• Metal roof
• 6,970 sq ft lot

Tags

• ROCK WALL
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#64 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Cobre Consolidated Schools (town): math 13% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #56 of 95 in NM (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 92% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (8.0% local appreciation)).
• Grant County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,159 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.32%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.03×
• Total profit: $63,545
• Equity at exit: $56,959

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.64×
• Total profit: $160,144
• Equity at exit: $113,117

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88023

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,280 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $632

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $555	-5% $534	+0% $512	+5% $491	+10% $470
Rent	-10% $411	-5% $462	+0% $512	+5% $563	+10% $613
Rate	-1.0pp $550	-0.5pp $531	base $512	+0.5pp $493	+1.0pp $473

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $74,900 Pending 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $74,900 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $74,900 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $74,900 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $89,900 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $89,900 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $89,900 Active 103 DOM
10. 2026-04-27
    price $89,900 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Located in the mining district of Bayard, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home was built in 1960 and has 2058 sq ft of living. 2 car attached carport. Rock wall with chain link fencing. Metal roof. Lot size is . 166.

11. 2026-04-27
    price $89,900 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Located in the mining district of Bayard, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home was built in 1960 and has 2058 sq ft of living. 2 car attached carport. Rock wall with chain link fencing. Metal roof. Lot size is . 166.

12. 2026-03-25
    price $104,900 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Located in the mining district of Bayard, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home was built in 1960 and has 2058 sq ft of living. 2 car attached carport. Rock wall with chain link fencing. Metal roof. Lot size is . 166.

13. 2026-03-25
    price $104,900 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Located in the mining district of Bayard, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home was built in 1960 and has 2058 sq ft of living. 2 car attached carport. Rock wall with chain link fencing. Metal roof. Lot size is . 166.

14. 2026-02-17
    listed $119,900 Active 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Located in the mining district of Bayard, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home was built in 1960 and has 2058 sq ft of living. 2 car attached carport. Rock wall with chain link fencing. Metal roof. Lot size is . 166.

15. 2026-02-17
    listed $119,900 Active 207-char remark

    Show marketing remark (207 chars)

    Located in the mining district of Bayard, this 4 bedroom, 2 bath home was built in 1960 and has 2058 sq ft of living. 2 car attached carport. Rock wall with chain link fencing. Metal roof. Lot size is . 166.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $900 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $900 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,229
• − Management: −$1,229
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $5,255
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,261
• After-tax cash flow: $4,887/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cobre Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500600
• Math proficiency: 13% —
• Reading proficiency: 33% —
• Median HH income: $32,044
• Composite: 21.77/100
• National rank: #13581
• State rank: #56 of 95 in NM

Livability — Bayard

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #13728

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayard, NM
• Population (ZIP): 2,370

Population outlook (Grant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,478 people
• By 2030: 25,179 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 22,711 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 20,807 · -21.4%
• By 2075: 16,893 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 13,020 · -50.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 79% Two or more races 37% White 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 69% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 34%

Political lean MEDSL · Grant

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.1) · D 51.3% · R 46.3% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.1 2020: D+7.2 2016: D+7.7 2012: D+13.5 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.01%
• Current HPI: 173.8461
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $89,900 NMMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $89,900 SCRMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $104,900 SCRMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $104,900 NMMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $119,900 NMMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $119,900 SCRMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $900 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.