27 N Duskwood Pl · The Woodlands, TX 77381

$569,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,592 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1991 7,701 sqft lot Est $581k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fall in love with this charming 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home featuring a private study and detached 2-car garage in the heart of The Woodlands in Cochran's Crossing! Ideally located just minutes (walking distance) from Powell Elementary and The Woodlands High School, this warm and inviting home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. The main floor features a spacious kitchen, sunny breakfast area, formal dining room, large laundry room, private study, and half bath. Upstairs, retreat to the generous primary suite with double vanities, soaking tub, separate shower, and walk-in closet, along with three additional bedrooms and a full bath. The extended driveway provides ample parking

Key facts

• Sunny breakfast area
• Formal dining room
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• PRIVATE STUDY
• DETACHED GARAGE
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• SUNNY BREAKFAST AREA
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $569k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-311/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $564k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $475k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $475k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mccullough J H (math 82% / reading 81%, grade A+, #9 of 1,662 statewide, top 1%, 2,178 students, 14% FRL); The Woodlands H S (math 71% / reading 86%, grade A-, #53 of 1,632 statewide, top 3%, 4,361 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools average 13% FRL vs 34% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 57% district-wide (+23 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Conroe ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($144k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $475,360 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.20%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $580,608
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
70 Amberglow Ct	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,607 (+1%)	1mo	$575,000	$221	91
14 S Duskwood Pl	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,666 (+3%)	3mo	$565,000	$212	90
107 N N Sunny Slope Cir	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,646 (+2%)	3mo	$499,000	$189	85
55 Pinepath Pl	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,523 (-3%)	1mo	$565,000	$224	83
82 E Coldbrook Cir	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,611 (+1%)	1mo	$619,900	$237	80
59 E Rumplecreek Pl	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,590 (-0%)	1mo	$615,000	$237	75
23 Sparklewood Pl	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,841 (+10%)	1mo	$649,999	$229	72
52 W Twinberry Pl	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,660 (+3%)	1mo	$550,000	$207	71
46 Indian Summer Pl	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,631 (+2%)	1mo	$617,774	$235	70
23 E Summer Storm Cir	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,520 (-3%)	3mo	$649,000	$258	64
50 E Greywing Cir	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,704 (+4%)	2mo	$495,000	$183	61
151 Bristol Bend Cir	0.45mi	4/3.5	2,923 (+13%)	3mo	$647,000	$221	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-98,189
• Equity at exit: $84,840

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-105,092
• Equity at exit: $49,197

Cash invested: $159,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77381

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,754 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,984
• Tax from tax record: −$560 /mo · $6,724/yr
• Insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$998
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,786

Max offer price $564,419

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $296	-5% $135	+0% $-26	+5% $-187	+10% $-348
Rent	-10% $-401	-5% $-214	+0% $-26	+5% $162	+10% $350
Rate	-1.0pp $261	-0.5pp $119	base $-26	+0.5pp $-173	+1.0pp $-323

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $142,250
• Closing costs: $17,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 S Winterport Cir Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	2386	$2,850	$1.19	44d	1	0.92mi
35 Alden Glen Dr Spring, TX	5.0	3.0	2676	$10,750	$4.02	24d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $569,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $569,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $569,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,724 · $560/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,413 · $868/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,689/yr (+$307/mo · 54.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,873
• − Property taxes: −$6,724
• − Insurance: −$2,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,563
• − Management: −$4,563
• − Depreciation: −$16,553
• Taxable loss: −$10,078
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,419
• After-tax cash flow: $2,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Woodlands, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,139
• Household income: $143,565
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 530.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.06%
• Current HPI: 271.7165
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Coming Soon $569,000 HARMLS
• 2000-12-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,724 · -7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.