7500 Blackhawk Trl · Spring Hill, FL 34606

$195,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1985 7,350 sqft lot Est $199k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming, move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom residence offering 1,040 square feet of comfortable living space. Durable and low-maintenance ceramic tile flooring flows seamlessly throughout the entire home. The bright eat-in kitchen provides a cozy setting for daily meals and gatherings, while the bathroom features a BRAND-NEW vanity and toilet. For added convenience, a dedicated indoor laundry room offers direct access to the side yard. Enjoy ultimate peace of mind with major structural updates already taken care of, including a 2019 roof, 2020 HVAC system, and 2019 hot water heater. Step outside to the FULLY FENCED backyard, an ideal space for pets, play, or outdoor entertaining. Plus, the seller is providing extra value with a BRAND-NEW storage shed to be delivered and installed soon! Conveniently located near local shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, this property perfectly combines comfort, convenience, and value. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Eat-in kitchen
• Indoor laundry room

Tags

• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• MAJOR STRUCTURAL UPDATES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.2 acres (0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Property zoned R1B
• HOA & community: No HOA/association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Directions available (local driving directions)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Paved road access
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One level; Facing north
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built on a slab
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Shed(s); Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Slab foundation
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Thermostat; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Inside utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.4% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Deltona Elementary School (math 45% / reading 50%, grade D, #1,182 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 843 students, 72% FRL); Central High School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 1,426 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $195k implies a 434% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.49%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3492 Sugarfoot Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-3%)	3mo	$250,000	$248	79
4067 Monona Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-3%)	14mo	$264,000	$262	68
3592 Arrowhead Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-3%)	11mo	$259,000	$257	59
3554 Arrowhead Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,008 (-3%)	11mo	$250,000	$248	57
4086 Arrowhead Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	0mo	$220,000	$191	56
4148 Arrowhead Ave	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+2%)	18mo	$150,000	$142	53
7504 Sealawn Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+4%)	14mo	$195,000	$181	52
8190 Sealawn Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,110 (+7%)	1mo	$112,000	$101	51
7102 Centerwood Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,012 (-3%)	8mo	$235,000	$232	51
3393 Fiskway St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+2%)	15mo	$131,500	$125	48
3257 Baldwin St	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+11%)	17mo	$106,000	$92	40
3324 Harrow Rd	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,172 (+13%)	16mo	$215,000	$183	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-18,674
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-14,791
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34606

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 392
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,007 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,239/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,634

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $406	-5% $351	+0% $295	+5% $240	+10% $185
Rent	-10% $137	-5% $216	+0% $295	+5% $375	+10% $454
Rate	-1.0pp $394	-0.5pp $345	base $295	+0.5pp $245	+1.0pp $193

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7410 Cherokee Trl Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,725	$1.44	14d	1	0.14mi
7423 Mohawk Trl Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,795	$1.61	19d	1	0.15mi
7272 Apache Trl Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,650	$1.88	25d	1	0.40mi
3204 Painters St Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	749	$1,300	$1.74	12d	1	0.49mi
7369 Sealawn Dr Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,500	$2.17	5d	1	0.57mi
4300 Bridgewater Club Loop Spring Hill, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1078	$1,484	$1.38	0d	13	0.78mi
3191 Deltona Blvd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,815	$1.33	25d	1	0.79mi
8397 Coral St Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,689	$1.41	4d	1	0.96mi
8513 Beach Rd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,990	$1.44	19d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $195,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,239 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,239 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,089
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,239
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,927
• − Management: −$1,927
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $424
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$102
• After-tax cash flow: $3,443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #15937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Hill, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 83,915
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,668
• Household income: $57,337
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 733.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.11%
• Current HPI: 298.5201
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+492.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-11 Listed $195,000 HCAR
• 1998-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $36,500 Public Records
• 1987-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,239 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.