3709 Pepperwood Dr · Weldon, CA 93240

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1974 7,841 sqft lot $93/sqft · 13% below area Est $143k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come take a look at your next home! This 1344 SF 3 bedroom, 2 bath 1974 mobile home is waiting for you to adopt it. This home is in great condition and sits on an 8700 SF fully fenced lot which backs up to a BLM mountain. There is an approximately 12X20 workshop just in back of the covered deck. On the other side of the home, in back of the covered parking is a shed for your extra stuff. Inside, you will find a nice sized living room with carpet that is in great shape. The kitchen is nice and roomy with a nearly new 5 burner stove and a stainless-steel fridge with Icemaker The laundry area is set up for a washer and comes with an electric dryer. There are three nice sized bedrooms along with 1 3/4 baths. Everything seems to be in great shape so come enjoy your next home or nice weekend retreat. . This home requires some fixing. Being sold AS-IS

Key facts

• 7,841 sq ft lot
• Built 1974
• Listed 67 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $543 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,218 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A-, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• South Fork Union (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,016 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Fork Elementary (344 students, 71% FRL); Kern Valley High (reading 75%, 466 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools at 71% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $89k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,406 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.92%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,021
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -12.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3712 Goat Ranch Rd	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	23mo	$178,500	$133	70
8305 Wildmint Dr	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (+4%)	13mo	$195,000	$139	64
8601 Deerbrush Ave	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	10mo	$125,000	$100	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $67,355
• Equity at exit: $74,994

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $172,022
• Equity at exit: $133,057

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93240

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,748 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $774/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $543

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,061

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $614	-5% $579	+0% $543	+5% $508	+10% $472
Rent	-10% $405	-5% $474	+0% $543	+5% $612	+10% $681
Rate	-1.0pp $606	-0.5pp $575	base $543	+0.5pp $511	+1.0pp $478

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,900 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $124,900 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,900 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,900 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $124,900 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $124,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $124,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $124,900 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $124,900 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 47 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 46 DOM
19. 2026-05-11
    status Active 856-char remark

    Show marketing remark (856 chars)

    Come take a look at your next home! This 1344 SF 3 bedroom, 2 bath 1974 mobile home is waiting for you to adopt it. This home is in great condition and sits on an 8700 SF fully fenced lot which backs up to a BLM mountain. There is an approximately 12X20 workshop just in back of the covered deck. On the other side of the home, in back of the covered parking is a shed for your extra stuff. Inside, you will find a nice sized living room with carpet that is in great shape. The kitchen is nice and roomy with a nearly new 5 burner stove and a stainless-steel fridge with Icemaker The laundry area is set up for a washer and comes with an electric dryer. There are three nice sized bedrooms along with 1 3/4 baths. Everything seems to be in great shape so come enjoy your next home or nice weekend retreat. . This home requires some fixing. Being sold AS-IS

20. 2026-04-29
    status Pending 856-char remark

    Show marketing remark (856 chars)

    Come take a look at your next home! This 1344 SF 3 bedroom, 2 bath 1974 mobile home is waiting for you to adopt it. This home is in great condition and sits on an 8700 SF fully fenced lot which backs up to a BLM mountain. There is an approximately 12X20 workshop just in back of the covered deck. On the other side of the home, in back of the covered parking is a shed for your extra stuff. Inside, you will find a nice sized living room with carpet that is in great shape. The kitchen is nice and roomy with a nearly new 5 burner stove and a stainless-steel fridge with Icemaker The laundry area is set up for a washer and comes with an electric dryer. There are three nice sized bedrooms along with 1 3/4 baths. Everything seems to be in great shape so come enjoy your next home or nice weekend retreat. . This home requires some fixing. Being sold AS-IS

21. 2026-04-03
    listed $124,900 Active 856-char remark

    Show marketing remark (856 chars)

    Come take a look at your next home! This 1344 SF 3 bedroom, 2 bath 1974 mobile home is waiting for you to adopt it. This home is in great condition and sits on an 8700 SF fully fenced lot which backs up to a BLM mountain. There is an approximately 12X20 workshop just in back of the covered deck. On the other side of the home, in back of the covered parking is a shed for your extra stuff. Inside, you will find a nice sized living room with carpet that is in great shape. The kitchen is nice and roomy with a nearly new 5 burner stove and a stainless-steel fridge with Icemaker The laundry area is set up for a washer and comes with an electric dryer. There are three nice sized bedrooms along with 1 3/4 baths. Everything seems to be in great shape so come enjoy your next home or nice weekend retreat. . This home requires some fixing. Being sold AS-IS

22. 2006-07-27
    soldstatus $89,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $774 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $949 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$175/yr (+$15/mo · 22.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$774
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,678
• − Management: −$1,678
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $4,797
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,151
• After-tax cash flow: $5,367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Fork Union
• NCES district ID: 0637470
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,532
• Composite: 29.31/100
• National rank: #11836
• State rank: #1016 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Weldon

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1218
• US rank: #26156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Weldon, CA
• Population (ZIP): 5,622

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.55%
• Current HPI: 341.2481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+40.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — SSMLS
• 2026-04-29 Pending — SSMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $124,900 SSMLS
• 2006-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $774 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.