510 W Decatur Ave · Orange, TX 77630

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,533 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 563 Days on market

Built 1952 9,016 sqft lot $72/sqft · 35% above area Est $81k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Start your journey of homeownership in this adorable 3-bedroom home. Home needs a little TLC. Stop dreaming of owning your own home or another rental property and make an offer today!

Key facts

• 9,016 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1952

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $215 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.9% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#286 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, schools D-.
• West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 563 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 563 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.97%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $81,373
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: 35.18%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2241 Cross Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,571 (+2%)	1mo	$28,999	$18	69
2109 N 3rd St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	10mo	$64,500	$48	58
418 Schley Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-15%)	9mo	$59,000	$45	56
1313 2nd St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-12%)	10mo	$89,900	$66	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $19,943
• Equity at exit: $37,609

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $73,649
• Equity at exit: $50,023

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77630

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,436 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,762/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,164

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1885 E Farragut Ave Orange, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1023	$1,049	$1.02	13d	9	0.35mi
1205 Wrenway Orange, TX	4.0	2.0	1551	$1,775	$1.14	14d	1	0.51mi
1500 Link Ave Orange, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1082	$1,050	$0.97	13d	1	0.68mi
1019 Ruby Ln Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1243	$1,100	$0.88	14d	1	0.68mi
1030 Clairmont Dr Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,850	$1.35	21d	1	0.68mi
3 Pacific Cir Orange, TX	4.0	1.0	1361	$1,500	$1.10	21d	1	0.75mi
9 W Eads Ave Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,400	$1.12	44d	1	0.81mi
1010 N 16th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	1.01mi
1117 18th St Orange, TX	4.0	2.0	1716	$1,500	$0.87	44d	1	1.04mi
2208 Monterrey Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1132	$1,200	$1.06	44d	1	1.20mi
1907 Walnut Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1360	$1,475	$1.08	14d	1	1.45mi
3901 Beverly Ave Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,500	$1.10	14d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 563 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 562 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 561 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 560 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 558 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 557 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 555 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 554 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 553 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 552 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 548 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 547 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 546 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 545 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 544 DOM
16. 2024-12-02
    listed $110,000 Active 184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (184 chars)

    Start your journey of homeownership in this adorable 3-bedroom home. Home needs a little TLC. Stop dreaming of owning your own home or another rental property and make an offer today!

17. 2024-06-26
    price $119,900
18. 2024-02-29
    soldstatus
19. 2024-02-29
    soldstatus
20. 2024-01-08
    price $130,000
21. 2023-07-11
    price $140,000
22. 2023-05-31
    price $145,000
23. 2023-02-27
    status Pending
24. 2023-02-22
    historical
25. 2023-01-27
    listed $165,000 Active
26. 2023-01-20
    soldstatus $589,563
27. 2022-07-25
    soldstatus
28. 2022-07-22
    soldstatus Sold
29. 2022-07-19
    status Pending
30. 2022-07-12
    listed $100,700 Active
31. 2019-12-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,762 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,762 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 84% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$2,762
• − Insurance: −$1,348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,378
• − Management: −$1,378
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $1,002
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$240
• After-tax cash flow: $2,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Orange-Cove CISD
• NCES district ID: 4845090
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,329
• Composite: 15.86/100
• National rank: #9260
• State rank: #784 of 826 in TX

Livability — Orange

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #6456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orange, TX
• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• City population: 22,976
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,983
• Household income: $64,373
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 264.14
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+9.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-02 Listed $110,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-26 Price Changed $119,900 BBOR
• 2024-02-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-02-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-01-08 Price Changed $130,000 BBOR
• 2023-07-11 Price Changed $140,000 BBOR
• 2023-05-31 Price Changed $145,000 BBOR
• 2023-02-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-02-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-01-27 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $589,563 Public Records
• 2022-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-07-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-07-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-12 Listed $100,700 HARMLS
• 2019-12-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,762 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.