10307 Sagerock Dr · Houston, TX 77089

$179,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,961 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1971 10,402 sqft lot Est $282k · 36% under $4/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Diamond in the rough in highly sought after Sagemont neighborhood. Spacious 4-bedroom 2 full bath home with both formals and large family room. Lots of windows throughout the house, covered front porch and utility room inside. Hardwoods, carpet in two rooms and tile in bathrooms. Detached 2 car garage with garage door opener. House has NEVER FLOODED. Conveniently located to shopping, schools and entertainment, easy access to Beltway 8 and I-45. House needs updates, AC, all appliances and slab work (have estimate for slab work). SOLD AS IS, price reflects estimated repairs. Don't miss out on this rare opportunity to make this your home!! REALTORS, SEE REALTOR REMARKS FOR ALL QUESTIONS AND SH

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Tile in bathrooms
• Never flooded

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• UTILITY ROOM INSIDE
• HARDWOODS
• TILE IN BATHROOMS
• DETACHED 2 CAR GARAGE
• NEVER FLOODED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Sagemont association with $50 annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1971; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Three additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: One fireplace; Double vanity; Tub with shower; Walk-in pantry; Nine total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Pasadena ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #612 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Melillo Middle (math 31% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 583 students, 70% FRL); The Summit (High School) (reading 24%, 148 students, 89% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.82%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $282,384
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10307 Sagerock Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,961 (0%)	0mo	$179,999	$92	100
10127 Sageglow Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,140 (+9%)	2mo	$320,000	$150	66
9815 Sagemoss Ln	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,936 (-1%)	3mo	$282,500	$146	66
11635 Sagevale Ln	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,145 (+9%)	0mo	$319,000	$149	65
10130 Sagedale Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,109 (+8%)	2mo	$315,000	$149	65
11010 Sageburrow Dr	0.45mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,054 (+5%)	3mo	$295,000	$144	64
10835 Sageburrow Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,054 (+5%)	3mo	$264,900	$129	62
9818 Sagemoss Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,020 (+3%)	2mo	$285,000	$141	60
11302 Blackhawk Blvd	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,106 (+7%)	1mo	$299,999	$142	57
10826 Sagecanyon Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,801 (-8%)	2mo	$269,000	$149	52
9823 Sageaspen Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,248 (+15%)	1mo	$310,000	$138	42
10914 Sagepark Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,684 (-14%)	3mo	$239,990	$143	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-15,022
• Equity at exit: $26,838

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $8,655
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77089

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,158 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$480 /mo · $5,754/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,902

Max offer price $179,999

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $305	-5% $254	+0% $203	+5% $152	+10% $101
Rent	-10% $32	-5% $117	+0% $203	+5% $288	+10% $373
Rate	-1.0pp $293	-0.5pp $248	base $203	+0.5pp $156	+1.0pp $109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11023 Sagewillow Ln Houston, TX	5.0	2.0	2242	$2,300	$1.03	20d	1	0.51mi
9815 Sagemoss Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1938	$2,400	$1.24	23d	1	0.65mi
11203 Sagehill Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1766	$1,900	$1.08	6d	1	0.69mi
10819 Sagewind Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1514	$1,966	$1.30	6d	1	0.74mi
12018 Country Orchard Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2624	$2,300	$0.88	18d	1	0.86mi
10606 Kirkwren Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1618	$8,750	$5.41	23d	1	0.88mi
10606 Kirkwren Dr Unit 1029082P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1614	$15,665	$9.71	25d	1	0.88mi
12047 Back Bay Ridge Way Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2356	$2,426	$1.03	0d	1	0.93mi
11438 Brook Meadow Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,895	$1.31	23d	1	0.94mi
10418 Sagemeadow Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1429	$1,950	$1.36	45d	1	1.12mi
11419 Sagegrove Ln Unit 1066581P Houston, TX	5.0	2.0	1948	$7,905	$4.06	0d	1	1.17mi
11419 Sagegrove Ln Houston, TX	5.0	2.0	1959	$8,950	$4.57	23d	1	1.17mi
9122 Southbluff Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,000	$1.05	45d	1	1.29mi
11034 Slate River Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1713	$1,900	$1.11	45d	1	1.33mi
10010 Sagecanyon Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$2,000	$1.45	45d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-22
   listed $179,999 Active
2. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,754 · $480/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,754 · $480/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$5,754
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,072
• − Management: −$2,072
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$265
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$64
• After-tax cash flow: $2,495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasadena ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834320
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,163
• Composite: 26.15/100
• National rank: #7275
• State rank: #612 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 57,741
• Household income: $88,140
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1483.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 22% White 19% Asian 17% Black 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 33% Vietnamese 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -156.31%
• Current HPI: 249.5438
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $179,999 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,754 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.