3263 Vineyard Ave #124 #124 · Pleasanton, CA 94566

$389,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,494 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2017 Est $311k · 25% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new manufactured home state of the art design its a must see inside and out. Open floor plan 3 bedrooms 2 baths. A kitchen to die w granite counter tops stainless steel appliances farm sink with built in self clean oven & cook top, 9 ft ceilings w/ a coffer ceiling in kitchen and master bedroom energy efficient home, 2x6 outer wall construction, R 38 insulation R 23 walls R 33 in the floor in the ceiling dual pane windows crown molding 5 1/4" baseboards, country porch, new driveway loaded with extras throughout the home. $65,000 worth of factory upgrades in this gorgeous home. Enjoy world class living in beautiful Vineyard Estates. Your close to some of the best medical facilities in the United States.

Key facts

• Ltv flooring
• Tray ceiling
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• TRAY CEILING
• BAY WINDOW
• LTV FLOORING
• RELAXING FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Vineyard Estates park; Senior community; Clubhouse; Greenbelt; Fitness center; Community pool and heated spa; Laundry facilities; Game room and rec room with fireplace; Guest parking; RV storage; Car wash area; Park interview required; Pet policies: cats and dogs allowed (approval required; number and size limits); Electric and gas metered

Exterior

• Parking: Carport for 2 or more cars
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Gas water heater
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home), double wide; Model: Creekside Mano
• Construction: Cement siding; Crawl space foundation; Built as a manufactured/mobile home
• Exterior features: Front yard; Side yard; Landscaped front; Automatic sprinklers (front); Yard space; Porch with awning(s) and porch steps; Shed(s) for additional storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range / cooktop; Built-in oven; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Ice maker hookup; Kitchen island; Pantry; Stone counters; Updated kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (street level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 total bathrooms; Full baths with shower over tub, solid surface finishes, updated baths, and windows; Primary bath with solid surface, stall shower, walk-in closet(s), and window
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Pantry; Updated kitchen; Dining area; Storage; Sun porch; 9 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; 220-volt outlet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $650 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $373k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $373k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 1.3% in Pleasanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#17 in CA, #655 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Pleasanton Unified (urban): math 75% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #43 of 1,400 in CA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $372,895 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.15%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $310,752
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3231 Vineyard Ave #76	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,431 (-4%)	2mo	$370,000	$259	88
3263 Vineyard Ave #125	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,578 (+6%)	6mo	$310,000	$196	85
3263 Vineyard Ave #189	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+1%)	10mo	$350,000	$231	84
3263 Vineyard Ave #178	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	8mo	$238,000	$165	83
3263 Vineyard Ave #174	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+7%)	4mo	$315,000	$197	82
3231 Vineyard Ave Spc 93	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,413 (-5%)	3mo	$287,000	$203	79
3231 Vineyard Ave., #102 #102	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-4%)	9mo	$205,000	$142	77
3263 Vineyard Ave #42	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+6%)	9mo	$402,000	$253	76
3263 Vineyard #68	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-13%)	2mo	$275,000	$212	74
3231 Vineyard Ave., #94 #94	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,340 (-10%)	0mo	$230,000	$172	73
3263 Vineyard Ave. #35 #35	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-8%)	3mo	$295,000	$216	73
3231 Vineyard #37	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-13%)	10mo	$270,000	$208	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-10,200
• Equity at exit: $58,135

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $95,017
• Equity at exit: $33,711

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94566

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,729 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,062/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$783
• Net cashflow: $650

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,906

Max offer price $389,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
749 Palomino Dr Unit C Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.5	1130	$3,250	$2.88	43d	1	0.50mi
835 Palomino Dr Unit 2 Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.5	1080	$2,850	$2.64	20d	1	0.51mi
3819 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	863	$3,384	$3.92	1d	14	0.62mi
3847 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,700	$3.00	16d	1	0.67mi
242 Birch Creek Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.5	1221	$3,100	$2.54	43d	1	0.68mi
223 Birch Creek Dr Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.5	1848	$4,800	$2.60	3d	1	0.73mi
3955 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	829	$3,436	$4.14	1d	5	0.79mi
368 Trenton Cir Pleasanton, CA	4.0	3.0	1620	$5,000	$3.09	24d	1	0.82mi
4059 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,850	$2.96	24d	1	0.86mi
1539 Trimingham Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1369	$3,600	$2.63	1d	1	1.20mi
4678 Whiting St Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1538	$5,500	$3.58	24d	1	1.31mi
4468 Del Valle Pkwy Unit 1 Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1280	$3,100	$2.42	16d	1	1.47mi
198 Peters Ave Unit C Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	878	$2,950	$3.36	43d	1	1.49mi
4320 Valley Ave Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1073	$3,474	$3.24	3d	2	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 456-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $389,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,062 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,963 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,902/yr (+$158/mo · 179.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,747
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$1,062
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,580
• − Management: −$3,580
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable income: $1,394
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$335
• After-tax cash flow: $7,469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasanton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600020
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $123,770
• Composite: 73.12/100
• National rank: #351
• State rank: #43 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pleasanton

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #655

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pleasanton, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 78,550
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,222
• Household income: $191,155
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 38% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 33% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Chinese 10% Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -841.68%
• Current HPI: 308.8324
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.04%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+310.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $389,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-09-28 Sold (MLS) $340,750 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-08-26 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-08-10 Price Changed $369,750 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-07-24 Listed $389,750 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2014-04-02 Sold (MLS) $71,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2014-03-25 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2014-03-22 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2014-03-21 Listed $71,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2002-06-21 Sold (MLS) $90,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2002-05-10 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2002-03-20 Listed $95,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,062 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.