7 Arbor Club Dr #211 · Palm Valley, FL 32082

$250,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,116 sqft · Condo public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1992 $224/sqft · at area comps Est $245k · at est. $526/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained villa. Light and bright. Back Porch overlooks lagoon and fountain. Master Bath has a walk-in shower. Walk to top notch restaurants, shopping, etc. Beach access for community.

Key facts

• $526 HOA
• Built 1992
• Listed 77 days

Tags

• BACK PORCH OVERLOOKS LAGOON
• BEACH ACCESS FOR COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-242 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (3.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.3% in Palm Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#462 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,195 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.15%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,293
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: 1.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-44,552
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-7,608
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32082

• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 333
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,407 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,428/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$526
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,713

Max offer price $207,195

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Arbor Club Dr #103 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	7d	1	0.03mi
11 Arbor Club Dr #214 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,200	$1.97	23d	1	0.09mi
19 Arbor Club Dr Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1116	$2,095	$1.88	23d	1	0.13mi
908 Shoreline Cir Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$2,100	$2.03	3d	1	0.20mi
100 Fairway Park Blvd Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	14d	3	0.25mi
71 Ponte Vedra Colony Cir Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$3,200	$3.37	23d	1	0.31mi
46 Ponte Vedra Colony Cir Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	21d	1	0.31mi
650 Ponte Vedra Blvd Unit E Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1406	$3,995	$2.84	23d	1	0.60mi
622 Ponte Vedra Blvd Unit D4 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1440	$4,500	$3.12	23d	1	0.61mi
657 Ponte Vedra Blvd Unit 657C Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1226	$6,500	$5.30	23d	1	0.66mi
562 Ponte Vedra Blvd Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	3.0	1.5	1453	$4,500	$3.10	23d	1	0.75mi
230 Colima Ct Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	990	$2,148	$2.17	7d	1	0.94mi
130 Veracruz Dr #722 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	991	$2,000	$2.02	23d	1	0.95mi
160 Veracruz Dr Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1065	$2,188	$2.05	23d	1	1.04mi
43 Tifton Way N Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1415	$3,950	$2.79	23d	1	1.13mi
100 Ironwood Dr #133 Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1117	$2,295	$2.05	23d	1	1.14mi
743 Spinnakers Reach Dr Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$4,500	$6.43	23d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $526 · $6,312/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-04-01
    listed $250,000 Active 200-char remark

    Show marketing remark (200 chars)

    Beautifully maintained villa. Light and bright. Back Porch overlooks lagoon and fountain. Master Bath has a walk-in shower. Walk to top notch restaurants, shopping, etc. Beach access for community.

15. 2022-07-20
    soldstatus $305,000
16. 2022-07-18
    soldstatus $305,000 Sold 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Welcome Home to Ocean Grove!! This second unit condo is ready for you. This unit is just a short bike ride from the private deeded beach access. It has been renovated and renew two months ago!!!

17. 2022-06-22
    status Pending 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Welcome Home to Ocean Grove!! This second unit condo is ready for you. This unit is just a short bike ride from the private deeded beach access. It has been renovated and renew two months ago!!!

18. 2022-06-21
    historical Active - Contingent 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Welcome Home to Ocean Grove!! This second unit condo is ready for you. This unit is just a short bike ride from the private deeded beach access. It has been renovated and renew two months ago!!!

19. 2022-06-09
    status Active 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Welcome Home to Ocean Grove!! This second unit condo is ready for you. This unit is just a short bike ride from the private deeded beach access. It has been renovated and renew two months ago!!!

20. 2022-06-06
    historical Active - Contingent 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Welcome Home to Ocean Grove!! This second unit condo is ready for you. This unit is just a short bike ride from the private deeded beach access. It has been renovated and renew two months ago!!!

21. 2022-05-23
    listed $305,000 Active 194-char remark

    Show marketing remark (194 chars)

    Welcome Home to Ocean Grove!! This second unit condo is ready for you. This unit is just a short bike ride from the private deeded beach access. It has been renovated and renew two months ago!!!

22. 2020-12-02
    soldstatus $134,000
23. 2019-11-20
    soldstatus $159,000
24. 2019-11-15
    soldstatus $159,000 Sold
25. 2019-11-01
    status Pending
26. 2019-10-28
    status Pending
27. 2019-10-15
    historical Active - Contingent
28. 2019-09-19
    status Active
29. 2019-08-30
    status Pending
30. 2019-08-11
    historical Active - Contingent
31. 2019-08-01
    listed $159,000 Active
32. 2008-11-30
    historical
33. 2008-04-30
    listed $189,000
34. 2005-03-23
    soldstatus $179,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,428 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,428 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,879
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,428
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,310
• − Management: −$2,310
• − HOA: −$6,312
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$7,008
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,682
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Valley

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #462
• US rank: #8349

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Valley, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,289
• Household income: $124,558
• Rent vs Own: 16.8% rent · 83.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 672.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -435.26%
• Current HPI: 306.134
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.39%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+39.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $250,000 realMLS
• 2022-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $305,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-18 Sold (MLS) $305,000 realMLS
• 2022-06-22 Pending — realMLS
• 2022-06-21 Contingent — realMLS
• 2022-06-09 Relisted — realMLS
• 2022-06-06 Contingent — realMLS
• 2022-05-23 Listed $305,000 realMLS
• 2020-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $134,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $159,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-15 Sold (MLS) $159,000 realMLS
• 2019-11-01 Pending — realMLS
• 2019-10-28 Pending — realMLS
• 2019-10-15 Contingent — realMLS
• 2019-09-19 Relisted — realMLS
• 2019-08-30 Pending — realMLS
• 2019-08-11 Contingent — realMLS
• 2019-08-01 Listed $159,000 realMLS
• 2008-11-30 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2008-04-30 Listed $189,000 realMLS
• 2005-03-23 Sold (Public Records) $179,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,428 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.