169 Cumberland Trl · Runaway Bay, TX 76426

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured · 163 Days on market

Built 1989 Good condition 0.31 ac lot $112/sqft · 17% below area Est $204k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming single-story home nestled in a quiet Bridgeport neighborhood. Situated on a generously sized lot, this residence offers a functional layout with comfortable living spaces ideal for everyday living or investment potential. The home features an open living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, creating an inviting atmosphere for gathering and entertaining. Well-proportioned bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy the expansive backyard with plenty of room for outdoor activities, gardening, or future enhancements. Conveniently located near local schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways, this property offers small-town living with easy access to nearby amenities in Wise County.

Key facts

• Generously sized lot
• Open living area
• Expansive backyard

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $406 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.8% in Runaway Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#491 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Bridgeport ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #356 of 826 in TX (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bridgeport El (523 students, 70% FRL); Bridgeport Middle (math 49% / reading 42%, grade D+, #470 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 455 students, 58% FRL); Bridgeport H S (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 633 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $169k implies a 866% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.30%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,457
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -17.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
297 Cumberland Trl	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,493 (-1%)	6mo	$210,000	$141	73
240 Overland Trl	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,517 (+0%)	8mo	$197,000	$130	72
313 Overland Trl	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,570 (+4%)	7mo	$208,000	$132	71
170 Ringo Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-0%)	11mo	$214,000	$142	61
134 Buck Ct	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,570 (+4%)	16mo	$215,000	$137	60
212 Overland Trl	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,517 (+0%)	20mo	$205,000	$135	59
219 Overland Trl	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,475 (-2%)	13mo	$205,000	$139	58
203 Overland Trl	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,475 (-2%)	22mo	$199,990	$136	54
170 Blue Ridge Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-12%)	23mo	$164,900	$124	54
157 Blue Ridge Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (+15%)	21mo	$207,000	$119	46
207 Overland Trl	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (+12%)	13mo	$212,000	$125	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $14,440
• Equity at exit: $42,256

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $60,742
• Equity at exit: $45,630

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76426

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,761 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $341/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,247

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $502	-5% $454	+0% $406	+5% $165	+10% $107
Rent	-10% $267	-5% $337	+0% $406	+5% $476	+10% $545
Rate	-1.0pp $491	-0.5pp $449	base $406	+0.5pp $363	+1.0pp $318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1218 Chestnut Ct Runaway Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1207	$1,700	$1.41	4d	1	0.28mi
1218 Chestnut Ct Runaway Bay, TX	2.0	1.5	1207	$1,700	$1.41	7d	1	0.28mi
1210 Chestnut Ct Unit 1 Runaway Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1079	$1,800	$1.67	45d	1	0.29mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,000 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 142 DOM
16. 2026-03-16
    price $169,000 769-char remark

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Welcome to this charming single-story home nestled in a quiet Bridgeport neighborhood. Situated on a generously sized lot, this residence offers a functional layout with comfortable living spaces ideal for everyday living or investment potential. The home features an open living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, creating an inviting atmosphere for gathering and entertaining. Well-proportioned bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy the expansive backyard with plenty of room for outdoor activities, gardening, or future enhancements. Conveniently located near local schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways, this property offers small-town living with easy access to nearby amenities in Wise County.

17. 2026-01-09
    listed $179,000 Active 769-char remark

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Welcome to this charming single-story home nestled in a quiet Bridgeport neighborhood. Situated on a generously sized lot, this residence offers a functional layout with comfortable living spaces ideal for everyday living or investment potential. The home features an open living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, creating an inviting atmosphere for gathering and entertaining. Well-proportioned bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy the expansive backyard with plenty of room for outdoor activities, gardening, or future enhancements. Conveniently located near local schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways, this property offers small-town living with easy access to nearby amenities in Wise County.

18. 2022-06-09
    soldstatus $17,500
19. 2020-11-19
    soldstatus
20. 1998-01-30
    soldstatus
21. 1998-01-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $341 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,093 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,752/yr (+$229/mo · 806.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$341
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,691
• − Management: −$1,691
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $2,184
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$524
• After-tax cash flow: $4,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming single-story home in a quiet neighborhood is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the space and improves aesthetics for both resale and rental.
• Both New countertops in kitchen — Modernizes the kitchen and improves aesthetics for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the space and improves aesthetics for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both New countertops in kitchen — Modernizes the kitchen and improves aesthetics for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bridgeport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811340
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,866
• Composite: 35.51/100
• National rank: #4913
• State rank: #356 of 826 in TX

Livability — Runaway Bay

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #491
• US rank: #9730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,632
• Household income: $92,130
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 74.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.82%
• Current HPI: 417.89
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+865.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $169,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $179,000 NTREIS
• 2022-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records
• 2020-11-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-01-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-01-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $341 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.