731 Michelia St · Magnolia, TX 77354

$305,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,045 sqft · Land · 77 Days on market

Built 2026 7,097 sqft lot $150/sqft · at area comps Est $316k · at est. $48/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

READY NOW! This beautiful home is the Boone plan, with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 2,045 sq ft. It has a stunning open-concept layout, a warm and inviting interior, and a high, sloped ceiling, making it perfect for those who love entertaining. The spacious living areas, including the kitchen, dining, and family room, are great for gatherings of all sizes. The foyer leads to 3 additional bedrooms and bathrooms. The owner's suite features a bay window with ample space and natural lighting. The owner's bathroom is a luxurious space to enjoy and relax. It will have a walk-in shower, soaking tub, double sink, and an enclosed toilet room. The covered patio is perfect for enjoying your private backyard. This is a fantastic opportunity, so contact us today to schedule a viewing!

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Bay window
• High sloped ceiling

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• HIGH SLOPED CEILING
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• BAY WINDOW
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• SOAKING TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $306k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (33.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($288k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $202,755 (33.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.65%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,115
• List price: $305,990
• Delta: -3.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $144,604
• Equity at exit: $275,660

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.01×
• Total profit: $428,975
• Equity at exit: $594,471

Cash invested: $85,677 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,028 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,605
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $986/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$48
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,357

Max offer price $259,957

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-87	-5% $-174	+0% $-261	+5% $-347	+10% $-434
Rent	-10% $-421	-5% $-341	+0% $-261	+5% $-180	+10% $-100
Rate	-1.0pp $-106	-0.5pp $-183	base $-261	+0.5pp $-340	+1.0pp $-421

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,498
• Closing costs: $9,180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	26d	1	0.23mi
764 Autumn Cherry Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2196	$1,665	$0.76	45d	1	0.32mi
202 Alder Laurels Cv Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2229	$2,036	$0.91	24d	1	0.35mi
273 Douglas Hills Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1922	$1,895	$0.99	45d	1	0.58mi
134 Piney Pathway Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	2329	$1,966	$0.84	0d	1	0.74mi
139 Piney Pathway Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	2332	$1,971	$0.85	26d	1	0.77mi
297 Country Crossing Cir Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1806	$1,731	$0.96	0d	1	0.77mi
359 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,725	$1.18	26d	1	0.80mi
408 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	45d	1	0.82mi
30906 Sweetwater Cir Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2154	$1,949	$0.90	24d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $48 · $576/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 778-char remark

   Show marketing remark (778 chars)

   READY NOW! This beautiful home is the Boone plan, with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 2,045 sq ft. It has a stunning open-concept layout, a warm and inviting interior, and a high, sloped ceiling, making it perfect for those who love entertaining. The spacious living areas, including the kitchen, dining, and family room, are great for gatherings of all sizes. The foyer leads to 3 additional bedrooms and bathrooms. The owner's suite features a bay window with ample space and natural lighting. The owner's bathroom is a luxurious space to enjoy and relax. It will have a walk-in shower, soaking tub, double sink, and an enclosed toilet room. The covered patio is perfect for enjoying your private backyard. This is a fantastic opportunity, so contact us today to schedule a viewing!

2. 2026-05-04
   price $305,990 778-char remark

   Show marketing remark (778 chars)

   READY NOW! This beautiful home is the Boone plan, with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 2,045 sq ft. It has a stunning open-concept layout, a warm and inviting interior, and a high, sloped ceiling, making it perfect for those who love entertaining. The spacious living areas, including the kitchen, dining, and family room, are great for gatherings of all sizes. The foyer leads to 3 additional bedrooms and bathrooms. The owner's suite features a bay window with ample space and natural lighting. The owner's bathroom is a luxurious space to enjoy and relax. It will have a walk-in shower, soaking tub, double sink, and an enclosed toilet room. The covered patio is perfect for enjoying your private backyard. This is a fantastic opportunity, so contact us today to schedule a viewing!

3. 2026-04-07
   price $311,990 778-char remark

   Show marketing remark (778 chars)

   READY NOW! This beautiful home is the Boone plan, with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 2,045 sq ft. It has a stunning open-concept layout, a warm and inviting interior, and a high, sloped ceiling, making it perfect for those who love entertaining. The spacious living areas, including the kitchen, dining, and family room, are great for gatherings of all sizes. The foyer leads to 3 additional bedrooms and bathrooms. The owner's suite features a bay window with ample space and natural lighting. The owner's bathroom is a luxurious space to enjoy and relax. It will have a walk-in shower, soaking tub, double sink, and an enclosed toilet room. The covered patio is perfect for enjoying your private backyard. This is a fantastic opportunity, so contact us today to schedule a viewing!

4. 2026-03-02
   listed $316,990 Active 778-char remark

   Show marketing remark (778 chars)

   READY NOW! This beautiful home is the Boone plan, with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 2,045 sq ft. It has a stunning open-concept layout, a warm and inviting interior, and a high, sloped ceiling, making it perfect for those who love entertaining. The spacious living areas, including the kitchen, dining, and family room, are great for gatherings of all sizes. The foyer leads to 3 additional bedrooms and bathrooms. The owner's suite features a bay window with ample space and natural lighting. The owner's bathroom is a luxurious space to enjoy and relax. It will have a walk-in shower, soaking tub, double sink, and an enclosed toilet room. The covered patio is perfect for enjoying your private backyard. This is a fantastic opportunity, so contact us today to schedule a viewing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $986 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,600 · $467/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,613/yr (+$384/mo · 467.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,331
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,140
• − Property taxes: −$986
• − Insurance: −$1,530
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,946
• − Management: −$1,946
• − HOA: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$8,902
• Taxable loss: −$8,696
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,087
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $305,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $311,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $316,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $986 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.