23594 Pine Forest Dr · Houston, TX 77357

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · Manufactured public records · 59 Days on market

Built 2017 0.26 ac lot $139/sqft · 29% above area Est $213k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WOW, talk about country living and now is your chance! Sitting on a spacious and oversized (unrestricted) lot is a large 4 bedroom, 2 barroom home featuring an open and modern floor-plan. Upon entering the home you will notice hard flooring in all main living areas, neutral paint contrasted with wood tones throughout, a large kitchen featuring ample storage and counter space all overlooking the dining room and living room, oversized secondary bedrooms, custom built in's and so much more! The primary bedroom is attached to an ensuite sure to impress with its dual sinks, vanity area, large soaking tub and walk in shower and closet. Be sure to check out the covered patio overlooking the large lawn (completely fenced) and bonus storage shed. This home is just what you have been waiting for so call today for more information. (new hvac 2026)

Key facts

• Large lawn
• Spacious lot
• Hard flooring

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• OPEN FLOOR-PLAN
• HARD FLOORING
• AMPLE STORAGE
• COVERED PATIO
• LARGE LAWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 979 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,603 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.16%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $212,504
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: 29.41%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-38,481
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-43,417
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,486 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,453/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,229

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23542 Laura New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	2024	$2,320	$1.15	43d	1	0.31mi
22744 Keith Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,650	$1.20	43d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $275,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-04-20
    listed $275,000 Active 848-char remark

    Show marketing remark (848 chars)

    WOW, talk about country living and now is your chance! Sitting on a spacious and oversized (unrestricted) lot is a large 4 bedroom, 2 barroom home featuring an open and modern floor-plan. Upon entering the home you will notice hard flooring in all main living areas, neutral paint contrasted with wood tones throughout, a large kitchen featuring ample storage and counter space all overlooking the dining room and living room, oversized secondary bedrooms, custom built in's and so much more! The primary bedroom is attached to an ensuite sure to impress with its dual sinks, vanity area, large soaking tub and walk in shower and closet. Be sure to check out the covered patio overlooking the large lawn (completely fenced) and bonus storage shed. This home is just what you have been waiting for so call today for more information. (new hvac 2026)

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,453 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,580/yr (+$215/mo · 105.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$2,453
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,387
• − Management: −$2,387
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$2,173
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$522
• After-tax cash flow: $2,956/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $275,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,453 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.