623 Lisbon Ave · Buffalo, NY 14215

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,710 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1920 3,150 sqft lot Est $233k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MUST SEE!!! Come see this SPACIOUS, 3 bedroom, 1 bath home on a quiet road in the city of Buffalo, steps from Amherst and near the University at Buffalo. Character & potential abounds in this INVESTOR SPECIAL featuring a generous living room and formal dining room with inlaid hardwood floors and period woodwork & trim, opening to the kitchen with wood cabinetry and abundant counterspace. Full bathroom with tile flooring & shower surround and two generous bedrooms are downstairs with one bedroom up makes for convenience with an additional room leading out to a front balcony, perfect for sipping your morning coffee after TLC. Step out into the private backyard with a one car

Key facts

• 3,150 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $519 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 237 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $130k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $129,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.12%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $232,560
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
547 Highgate Ave	0.15mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,794 (+5%)	5mo	$202,000	$113	75
211 Burke Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,648 (-4%)	3mo	$275,000	$167	70
119 Jasper Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,776 (+4%)	5mo	$250,000	$141	69
581 Eggert Rd	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,876 (+10%)	5mo	$300,000	$160	64
618 Lasalle Ave	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,844 (+8%)	5mo	$155,000	$84	64
54 Coniston Rd	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,730 (+1%)	3mo	$372,900	$216	64
347 Lisbon Ave	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,558 (-9%)	3mo	$180,000	$116	56
307 Berkshire Ave	0.60mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,623 (-5%)	4mo	$182,000	$112	55
71 Meaford Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,601 (-6%)	1mo	$217,360	$136	52
243 Berkshire Ave	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,617 (-5%)	1mo	$220,000	$136	48
253 Winspear Ave	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (-7%)	6mo	$315,100	$199	45
73 Davidson Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,547 (-10%)	5mo	$175,000	$113	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $8,208
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $34,863
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14215

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 237
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,628 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $381/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $519

Break-even live

Break-even rent $971

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $592	-5% $556	+0% $519	+5% $482	+10% $445
Rent	-10% $390	-5% $454	+0% $519	+5% $583	+10% $647
Rate	-1.0pp $584	-0.5pp $552	base $519	+0.5pp $485	+1.0pp $451

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
189 Westminster Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1065	$1,595	$1.50	11d	1	0.34mi
265 Lisbon Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	44d	1	0.70mi
263 Minnesota Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1242	$1,500	$1.21	15d	1	0.75mi
222 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	24d	1	0.79mi
222 Lisbon Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	44d	1	0.79mi
44 Aurora Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1272	$3,300	$2.59	2d	1	0.99mi
25 Parkridge Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1914	$1,350	$0.71	15d	1	1.10mi
40 Lisbon Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1057	$1,500	$1.42	11d	1	1.13mi
89 Lasalle Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1024	$2,291	$2.24	2d	10	1.16mi
91 Springville Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1660	$2,350	$1.42	24d	1	1.18mi
60 Englewood Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	2d	1	1.19mi
189 Hamilton Dr Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1994	$1,600	$0.80	44d	1	1.22mi
69 Berryman Dr Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	2056	$2,950	$1.43	2d	1	1.27mi
153 Springville Ave Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	2216	$1,475	$0.67	44d	1	1.29mi
63 Montrose Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	2240	$2,000	$0.89	2d	1	1.31mi
110 Gerald Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	2098	$1,100	$0.52	24d	1	1.44mi
74 Dorris Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	44d	1	1.45mi
71 Gerald Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1773	$1,100	$0.62	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $129,900 Active
3. 2022-08-25
   soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $381 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,288 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$907/yr (+$76/mo · 238.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,532
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$381
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,563
• − Management: −$1,563
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $4,321
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,037
• After-tax cash flow: $5,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,524
• Household income: $44,955
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2873.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 15% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.29%
• Current HPI: 295.2966
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+85.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $129,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $381 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.