3992 Pioneer Ln · Panama City, FL 32404

$279,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,788 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 2021 7,013 sqft lot Est $359k · 22% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your next home in sunny Panama City! This single-level house features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering plenty of space for everyday living, hobbies, or finding that quiet spot to curl up with a book. The layout keeps things simple and open, with 1,788 square feet to make your own. The kitchen is ready for you, with ample counter space and room for family or friends to hang out while you whip up a meal. The primary bedroom is set apart, giving you a peaceful place to unwind at the end of the day. Three additional bedrooms mean you have options--think guest rooms, an office, or a dedicated playroom. Now, about the neighborhood: Located in Brighton Oaks Subdivision you'll be nea

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• White sand beaches
• Panama city beach

Tags

• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• BRIGHTON OAKS SUBDIVISION
• GULF COAST STATE COLLEGE
• TYNDALL AIR FORCE BASE
• WHITE SAND BEACHES
• PANAMA CITY BEACH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 969 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,114 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.51%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $359,388
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4011 Pioneer Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,788 (0%)	16mo	$290,000	$162	84
4073 Brighton Blvd	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,768 (-1%)	13mo	$315,000	$178	81
4019 Brighton Blvd	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,787 (-0%)	12mo	$305,000	$171	79
4724 Bylsma Cir	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,901 (+6%)	10mo	$415,000	$218	62
3929 Sandpine Way	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,734 (-3%)	10mo	$365,000	$210	54
4020 Riverside Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,666 (-7%)	21mo	$310,000	$186	53
4706 Bylsma Cir	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,528 (-14%)	10mo	$330,000	$216	40
4255 Dairy Farm Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,677 (-6%)	16mo	$310,000	$185	39
4205 Florence Tolsma Way	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,964 (+10%)	24mo	$395,000	$201	35
4331 Garrison Rd	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,016 (+13%)	11mo	$295,000	$146	34
3908 Sandpine Way	0.66mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,044 (+14%)	16mo	$500,000	$245	27
4263 Dairy Farm Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,607 (-10%)	24mo	$335,000	$208	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-55,863
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-73,455
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 969
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,291 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$324 /mo · $3,888/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,416

Max offer price $262,505

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4012 Millicent Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	20d	1	0.05mi
4113 Brighton Blvd Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,300	$1.29	13d	1	0.07mi
4031 Oak Forest Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,100	$1.28	20d	1	0.40mi
4201 County Road 390 Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1275	$1,999	$1.57	20d	7	0.50mi
5057 Windrow Way Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$2,300	$1.28	20d	1	1.06mi
198 MILL BAYOU Blvd Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1275	$2,110	$1.65	20d	3	1.10mi
4512 Carla Ln Unit O Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,395	$1.09	20d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   price $279,900
3. 2026-03-25
   price $289,900
4. 2026-02-24
   listed $299,900 Active
5. 2025-09-29
   historical
6. 2025-09-27
   price $280,000
7. 2025-08-18
   listed $302,049 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,888 · $324/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,888 · $324/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,494
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$3,888
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,199
• − Management: −$2,199
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$6,014
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,443
• After-tax cash flow: $262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $279,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $289,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $299,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2025-09-27 Price Changed $280,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-08-18 Listed $302,049 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+123.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,888 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.