Dillon Plan · Sienna, TX 77459

$347,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,866 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Brand New Plan! The Courtyard Collection | 2 Story | 4 Bedrooms | 2.5 Baths | Game Room | 2- Car Attached Garage

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 34 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $347,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Dillon plan (new construction); Single-family property

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (1,866 total living area)

🏗️ New construction. The $347,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $349,259.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $348k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $960 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $348k).
• Recommended offer: $338k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($338k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $337,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.77%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,259
• List price: $347,990
• Delta: -0.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1334 Shaded Rock Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,910 (+2%)	0mo	$349,990	$183	91
9447 Garden Gate Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,866 (0%)	1mo	$354,990	$190	89
1456 Shaded Rock Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,838 (-2%)	3mo	$330,000	$180	87
9451 Garden Gate Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,901 (+2%)	1mo	$352,990	$186	86
9431 Garden Gate Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,835 (-2%)	1mo	$350,000	$191	85
1310 Shaded Rock Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,838 (-2%)	3mo	$347,740	$189	82
1306 Shaded Rock Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,046 (+10%)	2mo	$365,915	$179	74
9443 Garden Gate Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,710 (-8%)	3mo	$337,990	$198	73
9442 Spring Rain Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,710 (-8%)	3mo	$337,990	$198	73
1212 Shaded Rock Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,977 (+6%)	3mo	$365,115	$185	72
10311 Tranquil Lake Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0	1,973 (+6%)	3mo	$392,844	$199	57
10210 Water Harbor Dr	0.51mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,033 (+9%)	2mo	$344,900	$170	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $11,976
• Equity at exit: $73,250

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $59,086
• Equity at exit: $67,847

Cash invested: $97,793 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,270 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,832
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$437 /mo · $5,239/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$897
• Net cashflow: $960

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,055

Max offer price $349,259

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,315
• Closing costs: $10,478
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	43d	1	0.60mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	22d	1	0.67mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	1d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $347,990 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $347,990 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $347,990 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $347,990 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $347,990 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $347,990 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $347,990 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $347,990 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $347,990 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $347,990 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $347,990 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $347,990 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-05-15
    listed $347,990 Active 112-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,239
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,564
• − Property taxes: −$5,239
• − Insurance: −$1,746
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,099
• − Management: −$4,099
• − Depreciation: −$10,160
• Taxable income: $6,331
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,520
• After-tax cash flow: $9,995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new single-family home in Sienna, TX, is move-in ready with excellent condition and no visible repairs or maintenance needed. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the fresh paint, smart home features, and well-maintained landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Install smart home automation — Improves convenience and energy efficiency
• Both Add smart thermostat — Enhances comfort and energy savings
• Both Install smart security system — Enhances safety and peace of mind

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home automation — Improves convenience and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Enhances comfort and energy savings ↑
• Both Install smart security system — Enhances safety and peace of mind ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B