55 Sugar St #9 · Newtown, CT 06470

$119,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Manufactured public records · 223 Days on market

Built 2025 871 sqft lot $248/sqft · at area comps Est $139k · 14% under $585/mo HOA · 39% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand-new one-bedroom, one-bathroom mobile home in Black Bear Village. This newly built home features an open-concept living area with modern finishes, a bright kitchen with new appliances, and a comfortable bedroom with ample closet space. The full bathroom offers contemporary fixtures, design, and a washer and dryer hookup. Energy-efficient construction, new mechanicals, and convenient single-level living make this home a great option for easy maintenance. Lot rent of $585 includes land rent, common area maintenance, water, sewer, and trash. Move-in ready and close to local shops, restaurants, and major routes. Building Town tax is to be approximately $800.00 per year, please ignore the automated land tax displayed.

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 223 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $98k (17.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 1.9% in Newtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#51 in CT, #3,286 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Newtown School District (suburban): math 59% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #24 of 153 in CT (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $119k implies a 2280% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.

Recommended offer $97,651 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.35%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $139,000
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -14.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-26,668
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-31,866
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06470

• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,485 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $422/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$585
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,638

Max offer price $97,651

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-53	-5% $-87	+0% $-121	+5% $-155	+10% $-188
Rent	-10% $-238	-5% $-180	+0% $-121	+5% $-62	+10% $-4
Rate	-1.0pp $-61	-0.5pp $-91	base $-121	+0.5pp $-152	+1.0pp $-183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $585 · $7,020/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrash

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-10-18
   listed $119,000 Active 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Brand-new one-bedroom, one-bathroom mobile home in Black Bear Village. This newly built home features an open-concept living area with modern finishes, a bright kitchen with new appliances, and a comfortable bedroom with ample closet space. The full bathroom offers contemporary fixtures, design, and a washer and dryer hookup. Energy-efficient construction, new mechanicals, and convenient single-level living make this home a great option for easy maintenance. Lot rent of $585 includes land rent, common area maintenance, water, sewer, and trash. Move-in ready and close to local shops, restaurants, and major routes. Building Town tax is to be approximately $800.00 per year, please ignore the automated land tax displayed.

2. 2025-10-11
   historical $119,000 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Brand-new one-bedroom, one-bathroom mobile home in Black Bear Village. This newly built home features an open-concept living area with modern finishes, a bright kitchen with new appliances, and a comfortable bedroom with ample closet space. The full bathroom offers contemporary fixtures, design, and a washer and dryer hookup. Energy-efficient construction, new mechanicals, and convenient single-level living make this home a great option for easy maintenance. Lot rent of $585 includes land rent, common area maintenance, water, sewer, and trash. Move-in ready and close to local shops, restaurants, and major routes. Building Town tax is to be approximately $800.00 per year, please ignore the automated land tax displayed.

3. 1992-10-22
   soldstatus $5,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $422 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,484 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,062/yr (+$89/mo · 251.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$422
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,425
• − Management: −$1,425
• − HOA: −$7,020
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$3,198
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$768
• After-tax cash flow: $-683/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newtown School District
• NCES district ID: 0902910
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $110,184
• Composite: 60.11/100
• National rank: #870
• State rank: #24 of 153 in CT

Livability — Newtown

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #3286

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,576

Population outlook (Western Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 685,031

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Western Connecticut

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 58.8% · R 39.7% · Other 1.6%
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.23%
• Current HPI: 209.6686
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+2280.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-18 Listed $119,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-10-11 Coming Soon $119,000 Smart MLS
• 1992-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $422 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.