1402 Hickory St · Pymatuning Central, PA 16424

$112,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · SingleFamily · 245 Days on market

Built 1976 Fair condition 0.50 ac lot $187/sqft · 28% above area Est $87k · 28% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cottage can be your vacation getaway or a year-round home. All furnishings included as well as the lawn equipment. Detached garage has access from the roadway left of the house, Cottage is close to Pyma Lake

Key facts

• Access from roadway
• Close to pyma lake
• Year round home

Tags

• YEAR ROUND HOME
• FURNISHINGS INCLUDED
• DETACHED GARAGE
• ACCESS FROM ROADWAY
• CLOSE TO PYMA LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $112k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $112k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#1,181 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Conneaut SD (rural): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #241 of 539 in PA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($774 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $98,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.02%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,187
• List price: $112,000
• Delta: 28.46%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1268 Bass Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	660 (+10%)	11mo	$148,000	$224	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $61,329
• Equity at exit: $88,808

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.41×
• Total profit: $169,546
• Equity at exit: $179,954

Cash invested: $31,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16424

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,212 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$587
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$140 /mo · $1,680/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $980

Max offer price $112,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,000
• Closing costs: $3,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $112,000 Active 245 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $112,000 Active 244 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $112,000 Active 243 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $112,000 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $112,000 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $112,000 Active 239 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $112,000 Active 238 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $112,000 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $112,000 Active 234 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $112,000 Active 233 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $112,000 Active 232 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $112,000 Active 229 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $112,000 Active 228 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $112,000 Active 227 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $112,000 Active 226 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $112,000 Active 225 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    price $112,000 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    This cottage can be your vacation getaway or a year-round home. All furnishings included as well as the lawn equipment. Detached garage has access from the roadway left of the house, Cottage is close to Pyma Lake

18. 2026-02-23
    status Active 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    This cottage can be your vacation getaway or a year-round home. All furnishings included as well as the lawn equipment. Detached garage has access from the roadway left of the house, Cottage is close to Pyma Lake

19. 2026-01-30
    status Pending 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    This cottage can be your vacation getaway or a year-round home. All furnishings included as well as the lawn equipment. Detached garage has access from the roadway left of the house, Cottage is close to Pyma Lake

20. 2025-09-23
    listed $114,900 Active 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    This cottage can be your vacation getaway or a year-round home. All furnishings included as well as the lawn equipment. Detached garage has access from the roadway left of the house, Cottage is close to Pyma Lake

21. 2025-08-29
    status Active
22. 2025-07-24
    price $112,900
23. 2025-06-12
    status Active
24. 2025-06-02
    status Pending
25. 2025-05-28
    historical Active Under Contract
26. 2025-04-21
    listed $114,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,542
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,274
• − Property taxes: −$1,680
• − Insurance: −$560
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,163
• − Management: −$1,163
• − Depreciation: −$3,258
• Taxable income: $443
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$106
• After-tax cash flow: $2,094/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Moderate rehab

This single-family home requires significant repairs and updates to its exterior, interior, and systems, but presents a good opportunity for renovation with high ROI.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — Weathered condition
• Major flooring — Worn carpet
• Major interior walls — Painted walls with potential peeling

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace carpet — New carpet improves comfort and reduces maintenance
• Both repair and replace siding — New siding improves curb appeal and reduces maintenance
• Both repair and replace roof — New roof ensures long-term durability and reduces maintenance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Weathered condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn carpet	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Painted walls with potential peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace carpet — New carpet improves comfort and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both repair and replace siding — New siding improves curb appeal and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both repair and replace roof — New roof ensures long-term durability and reduces maintenance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conneaut SD
• NCES district ID: 4206590
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,946
• Composite: 40.06/100
• National rank: #3813
• State rank: #241 of 539 in PA

Livability — Pymatuning Central

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #1181
• US rank: #13811

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pymatuning Central, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,328

Population outlook (Crawford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,399 people
• By 2030: 77,977 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 70,659 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 63,841 · -21.6%
• By 2075: 50,198 · -38.3%
• By 2100: 37,898 · -53.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crawford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.2) · D 30.0% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -39.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.2 2020: R+37.2 2016: R+38.5 2012: R+19.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.48%
• Current HPI: 276.8388
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $112,000 GEBOR
• 2026-02-23 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2026-01-30 Pending — GEBOR
• 2025-09-23 Listed $114,900 GEBOR
• 2025-08-29 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $112,900 GEBOR
• 2025-06-12 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2025-06-02 Pending — GEBOR
• 2025-05-28 Contingent — GEBOR
• 2025-04-21 Listed $114,900 GEBOR