11299 Porter Ave · Lilley, MI 49309

$50,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 1978 0.54 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

There is no 'for sale' sign on the property. For sale only - Not for rent. This 1978 mobile home located on a quiet, dead end street, on 1/2 acre of your own land, not in a mobile home park, can be your year-round residence or a get-a-way for weekends to ''escape'' from ''city life'' to be refreshed with nature! Located in the heart of Newaygo County, it is close to all things nature with opportunities close by for fishing, hunting, trail riding or other outdoor opportunities. This can very quickly become a comfortable place. It has two bedrooms and two full bathrooms, a large kitchen/dining/living area and a back enclosed entry room. Also is a detached shed with the well and storage options. Electricity is on! Refrigerator, freezer, stove and washer and dryer included. Home is being sold ''as is. ' The accuracy of all information, regardless of source, is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be verified by buyer and buyer's agent.

Key facts

• Close to nature
• Your own land
• Detached shed

Tags

• QUIET DEAD END STREET
• YOUR OWN LAND
• CLOSE TO NATURE
• FISHING HUNTING TRAIL RIDING
• DETACHED SHED
• BACK ENCLOSED ENTRY ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water
• Home design: Ranch-style home; Single-story
• Construction: Built in 1978; Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Well water; Lot is approximately 0.54 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating
• Interior features: Accessible entrance; Total of 4 rooms

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $50,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$212,660) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($879 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baldwin Community Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #618 of 760 in MI (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 155 units permitted in Newaygo County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Newaygo County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $48,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.53%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,660
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10838 N Wilvan Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,038 (+6%)	0mo	$225,000	$217	62
10861 Prospect Ave	0.58mi	2/1.0	900 (-8%)	1mo	$153,000	$170	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.62×
• Total profit: $50,664
• Equity at exit: $45,044

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.34×
• Total profit: $130,774
• Equity at exit: $97,139

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49309

• Home prices YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $879 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $524/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $414

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $50,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $50,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $50,000 Active 990-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    There is no 'for sale' sign on the property. For sale only - Not for rent. This 1978 mobile home located on a quiet, dead end street, on 1/2 acre of your own land, not in a mobile home park, can be your year-round residence or a get-a-way for weekends to ''escape'' from ''city life'' to be refreshed with nature! Located in the heart of Newaygo County, it is close to all things nature with opportunities close by for fishing, hunting, trail riding or other outdoor opportunities. This can very quickly become a comfortable place. It has two bedrooms and two full bathrooms, a large kitchen/dining/living area and a back enclosed entry room. Also is a detached shed with the well and storage options. Electricity is on! Refrigerator, freezer, stove and washer and dryer included. Home is being sold ''as is. ' The accuracy of all information, regardless of source, is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be verified by buyer and buyer's agent.

17. 2026-05-15
    listed $50,000 Active 995-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    There is no 'for sale' sign on the property. For sale only - Not for rent. This 1978 mobile home located on a quiet, dead end street, on 1/2 acre of your own land, not in a mobile home park, can be your year-round residence or a get-a-way for weekends to ''escape'' from ''city life'' to be refreshed with nature! Located in the heart of Newaygo County, it is close to all things nature with opportunities close by for fishing, hunting, trail riding or other outdoor opportunities. This can very quickly become a comfortable place. It has two bedrooms and two full bathrooms, a large kitchen/dining/living area and a back enclosed entry room. Also is a detached shed with the well and storage options. Electricity is on! Refrigerator, freezer, stove and washer and dryer included. Home is being sold ''as is. ' The accuracy of all information, regardless of source, is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be verified by buyer and buyer's agent.

18. 2026-05-15
    listed $50,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    There is no 'for sale' sign on the property. For sale only - Not for rent. This 1978 mobile home located on a quiet, dead end street, on 1/2 acre of your own land, not in a mobile home park, can be your year-round residence or a get-a-way for weekends to ''escape'' from ''city life'' to be refreshed with nature! Located in the heart of Newaygo County, it is close to all things nature with opportunities close by for fishing, hunting, trail riding or other outdoor opportunities. This can very quickly become a comfortable place. It has two bedrooms and two full bathrooms, a large kitchen/dining/living area and a back enclosed entry room. Also is a detached shed with the well and storage options. Electricity is on! Refrigerator, freezer, stove and washer and dryer included. Home is being sold ''as is. ' The accuracy of all information, regardless of source, is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and should be verified by buyer and buyer's agent.

19. 2025-12-01
    status Pending
20. 2025-12-01
    status Pending
21. 2025-12-01
    historical
22. 2025-10-28
    listed $39,900 Active
23. 2025-10-28
    listed $39,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $524 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $647 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: +$123/yr (+$10/mo · 23.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,550
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$524
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$844
• − Management: −$844
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $3,833
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$920
• After-tax cash flow: $3,495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603810
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,638
• Composite: 22.56/100
• National rank: #13447
• State rank: #618 of 760 in MI

Livability — Lilley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,608

Population outlook (Newaygo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,371 people
• By 2030: 44,879 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 41,107 · -11.4%
• By 2050: 36,800 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 27,507 · -40.7%
• By 2100: 18,600 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 6% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newaygo

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 27.9% · R 70.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+39.6 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.70%
• Current HPI: 273.0801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+25.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $50,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $50,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-15 Listed $50,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-01 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-12-01 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $39,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-28 Listed $39,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $524 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.