8536 Kern Cyn #255 · East Niles, CA 93306

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1983 $96/sqft · 22% above area Est $99k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully upgraded and well-maintained manufactured home located in a peaceful cul-de-sac. Featuring fresh interior paint and updated flooring, this spacious home reflects true pride of ownership throughout. Ideal for first-time buyers, downsizers or investors seeking comfort, style, and value. Community amenities include a pool, basketball court, pickleball court, and clubhouse for residents to enjoy. The monthly space fee provides added convenience by covering utilities such as electricity, gas, and water, offering a predictable and manageable cost.

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Peaceful cul-de-sac
• Basketball court

Tags

• UPGRADED MANUFACTURED HOME
• PEACEFUL CUL-DE-SAC
• UPDATED FLOORING
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL
• BASKETBALL COURT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Sewer service
• Home design: Manufactured home zoning (MH); Leased space
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof; Exterior finished with other material (see remarks)
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Community pool; Cul-de-sac location

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/Oven; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Formal living room; Great room; Range/Oven; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $584 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 4.4% in East Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $120k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.85%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $98,521
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: 21.80%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #146	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	8mo	$85,000	$68	94
8300 Kern Canyon Rd #93	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	2mo	$68,000	$54	90
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #44	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	6mo	$63,000	$47	82
8904 Eastwind Cir	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	6mo	$285,000	$228	82
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #100	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	8mo	$105,000	$78	80
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #236	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	9mo	$58,000	$43	79
8500 Kern Canyon Rd #139	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	3mo	$74,000	$55	76
9220 Eastwind Cir	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,196 (-4%)	9mo	$110,000	$92	75
8300 Kern Canyon Rd #150	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	1mo	$93,000	$69	72
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #136	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,430 (+15%)	8mo	$125,000	$87	69
9305 Eastwind Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	6mo	$250,000	$186	65
9108 Eastwind Cir	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,404 (+12%)	7mo	$245,000	$175	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $16,440
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $56,966
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93306

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,637 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $361/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $584

Break-even live

Break-even rent $898

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3217 Fortier St Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,650	$1.54	2d	1	0.39mi
600 Morning Dr Unit 661-363-6434 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	884	$1,005	$1.14	2d	1	0.98mi
600 Morning Dr Unit 661-363-6434 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1054	$1,067	$1.01	43d	1	0.98mi
7000 College Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	849	$1,480	$1.74	19d	1	0.99mi
7000 College Ave Unit 035 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	849	$1,525	$1.80	14d	1	1.00mi
7000 College Ave Apt 168 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	957	$1,655	$1.73	19d	1	1.00mi
8817 Butternut Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,200	$1.59	2d	1	1.16mi
9802 Krista Vineyard Way Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,195	$1.69	2d	1	1.17mi
6900 Valleyview Dr Unit 152 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,610	$1.55	2d	1	1.40mi
6900 Valleyview Dr Apt 127 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	975	$1,535	$1.57	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $120,000 Active 559-char remark
16. 2025-12-03
    listed $120,000 Active
17. 2025-07-11
    price $120,000
18. 2025-04-30
    listed $125,000 Active
19. 2018-03-14
    price $47,900
20. 2007-12-05
    soldstatus $44,500
21. 2007-10-23
    historical
22. 2007-10-23
    price $49,900
23. 2007-04-03
    listed $44,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $361 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $912 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$551/yr (+$46/mo · 152.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$361
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,571
• − Management: −$1,571
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $5,325
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,278
• After-tax cash flow: $5,726/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — East Niles

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Niles, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 74,116
• Household income: $69,805
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2871.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 23% Two or more races 20% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 46% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.02%
• Current HPI: 358.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.24%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+169.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $120,000 GEMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $120,000 GEMLS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $120,000 GEMLS
• 2025-04-30 Listed $125,000 GEMLS
• 2018-03-14 Price Changed $47,900 GEMLS
• 2007-12-05 Sold (MLS) $44,500 GEMLS
• 2007-10-23 Price Changed $49,900 GEMLS
• 2007-10-23 Delisted — GEMLS
• 2007-04-03 Listed $44,500 GEMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $361 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.