210 Carrie Mabrie St · Trenton, TX 75490

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 282 Days on market

Built 1960 0.28 ac lot $120/sqft · 50% below area Est $188k · 50% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor Special located on an expansive lot just a stone's throw from the heart of downtown Trenton. This 2 BED, 1 BA, metal roof home sits on a spacious 0.27 Acre lot less than a block from downtown. Ready for your vision, the home has been gutted in preparation for renovation, windows replaced within the last 5 years. Whether you're looking for a fix-and-flip project or a long term rental property to add to your portfolio, this property provides opportunity. There is limited rental availability in Trenton, most properties rent quickly, suggesting there is a consistent need. The oversized lot features a natural tree line, the storage building will remain. Take advantage of this prime location near local amenities and put your vision to work. Sitting in the golden triangle between SH 121, Hwy 69 and Saunders, location provides quick access to all major thoroughfares enroute to McKinney, Anna, Melissa, Bonham, Sherman or Greenville.

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• Natural tree line
• Windows replaced

Tags

• EXPANSIVE LOT
• WINDOWS REPLACED
• OVERSIZED LOT
• NATURAL TREE LINE
• STORAGE BUILDING WILL REMAIN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $592 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 2.7% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,108 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Trenton ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #483 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Fannin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fannin County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 282 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 282 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.69%
• DSCR: 2.19
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,200
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -49.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 Butler St	0.22mi	2/1.0	788 (-0%)	21mo	$175,500	$223	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.36×
• Total profit: $89,477
• Equity at exit: $85,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.80×
• Total profit: $233,969
• Equity at exit: $184,564

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75490

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,641 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $1,999/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $592

Break-even live

Break-even rent $892

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 282 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 281 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 280 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 279 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 277 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 273 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 272 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 271 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $95,000 Active 268 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 267 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 266 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 265 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 264 DOM
14. 2026-02-17
    price $95,000 946-char remark

    Show marketing remark (946 chars)

    Investor Special located on an expansive lot just a stone's throw from the heart of downtown Trenton. This 2 BED, 1 BA, metal roof home sits on a spacious 0.27 Acre lot less than a block from downtown. Ready for your vision, the home has been gutted in preparation for renovation, windows replaced within the last 5 years. Whether you're looking for a fix-and-flip project or a long term rental property to add to your portfolio, this property provides opportunity. There is limited rental availability in Trenton, most properties rent quickly, suggesting there is a consistent need. The oversized lot features a natural tree line, the storage building will remain. Take advantage of this prime location near local amenities and put your vision to work. Sitting in the golden triangle between SH 121, Hwy 69 and Saunders, location provides quick access to all major thoroughfares enroute to McKinney, Anna, Melissa, Bonham, Sherman or Greenville.

15. 2025-09-09
    listed $105,000 Active 946-char remark

    Show marketing remark (946 chars)

    Investor Special located on an expansive lot just a stone's throw from the heart of downtown Trenton. This 2 BED, 1 BA, metal roof home sits on a spacious 0.27 Acre lot less than a block from downtown. Ready for your vision, the home has been gutted in preparation for renovation, windows replaced within the last 5 years. Whether you're looking for a fix-and-flip project or a long term rental property to add to your portfolio, this property provides opportunity. There is limited rental availability in Trenton, most properties rent quickly, suggesting there is a consistent need. The oversized lot features a natural tree line, the storage building will remain. Take advantage of this prime location near local amenities and put your vision to work. Sitting in the golden triangle between SH 121, Hwy 69 and Saunders, location provides quick access to all major thoroughfares enroute to McKinney, Anna, Melissa, Bonham, Sherman or Greenville.

16. 2025-03-31
    soldstatus
17. 1992-05-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,999 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,999 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,999
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,575
• − Management: −$1,575
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $5,977
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,435
• After-tax cash flow: $5,665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trenton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843140
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $61,383
• Composite: 31.38/100
• National rank: #5993
• State rank: #483 of 826 in TX

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1108
• US rank: #19614

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trenton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,024

Population outlook (Fannin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,423 people
• By 2030: 33,035 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 32,250 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 31,462 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 29,447 · -11.9%
• By 2100: 25,459 · -23.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fannin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.4) · D 15.9% · R 83.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.8pp toward R · 2008: -39.6pp · 2024: -67.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.4 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+52.5 2008: R+39.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.09%
• Current HPI: 301.2127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $95,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-09 Listed $105,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-05-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,999 · -7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.