13139 Hicks Rd · Hudson, FL 34669

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1974 0.40 ac lot Est $143k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice location. .4 acre lot. This is an X flood zone so flood insurance is not required.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Private entrance
• Attached bonus room

Tags

• ATTACHED BONUS ROOM
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• FULL BATHROOM
• FULLY FENCED LOT
• CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY
• OWNED SOLAR PANEL SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is homesteaded; No lease restrictions indicated; Partially furnished
• Financial info: Tax year 2025 (tax amount listed separately)
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Circular driveway with additional driveway parking; Off-street open parking; Oversized parking; RV access/parking; 1-car carport
• Security: Security gate; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Solar energy generation
• Home design: Single family residence (double wide); One story; Stilt/on piling foundation; Facing west
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Completed condition
• Exterior features: Covered front porch and patio; Porch; Awnings; Fire pit; Exterior lighting; Storage shed(s); Mature landscaping with trees; Wooded areas; Level, paved lot within city limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Water purifier
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/family room combo; Formal dining; Living/dining room combo; Solid wood cabinets; Split bedroom floorplan; Thermostat; Window treatments (blinds, drapes, rods)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry in a laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $777 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 3.4% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in FL, #4,856 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hudson Primary Academy (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 647 students, 90% FRL); Fivay High School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,610 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $130k implies a 420% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.62%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $143,040
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9519 Clyde St	0.48mi	3/2.0	960 (0%)	3mo	$101,000	$105	75
12520 Hicks Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	904 (-6%)	13mo	$135,000	$149	50
13602 Litewood Dr	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-12%)	1mo	$59,000	$70	49
10005 Frierson Lake Dr	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,032 (+8%)	14mo	$290,000	$281	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $28,381
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $88,234
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34669

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,949 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $324/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $777

Break-even live

Break-even rent $966

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $851	-5% $814	+0% $777	+5% $740	+10% $704
Rent	-10% $623	-5% $700	+0% $777	+5% $854	+10% $931
Rate	-1.0pp $843	-0.5pp $810	base $777	+0.5pp $744	+1.0pp $709

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12909 Litewood Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,645	$1.65	25d	1	0.33mi
12909 Litewood Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	984	$1,645	$1.67	19d	1	0.33mi
11105 Pinto Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,350	$2.01	13d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $130,000 Active
3. 2014-06-14
   status Pending 87-char remark

   Show marketing remark (87 chars)

   Nice location. .4 acre lot. This is an X flood zone so flood insurance is not required.

4. 2014-06-10
   historical 87-char remark

   Show marketing remark (87 chars)

   Nice location. .4 acre lot. This is an X flood zone so flood insurance is not required.

5. 2013-12-12
   soldstatus $25,000 Sold 87-char remark

   Show marketing remark (87 chars)

   Nice location. .4 acre lot. This is an X flood zone so flood insurance is not required.

6. 2012-07-02
   listed $29,800 87-char remark

   Show marketing remark (87 chars)

   Nice location. .4 acre lot. This is an X flood zone so flood insurance is not required.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $324 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,079 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$755/yr (+$63/mo · 233.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,394
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$324
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,871
• − Management: −$1,871
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $7,613
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,827
• After-tax cash flow: $7,499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hudson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #4856

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 45,307
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,618
• Household income: $58,638
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 176.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.24%
• Current HPI: 321.5862
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+336.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-12 Sold (MLS) $25,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-02 Listed $29,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $324 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.