5402 52nd Ln SE · Lacey, WA 98503

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2003 $72/sqft · at area comps Est $123k · at est. ↓ 3% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Dialed in and consistently cared for, this home offers easy living in a convenient Lacey location. Enjoy a private backyard with a covered patio and welcoming covered front porch - perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Inside, you'll find fresh interior paint, new windows throughout with transferrable warranty, heat pump for year round comfort, and a comfortable layout with a split bedroom design for added privacy. The kitchen features an eat-in dining space, and all appliances are included for a seamless move-in experience. Additional highlights include a spacious 2 car garage, large private driveway and ample off street parking. Enjoy low maintenance landscaping with clean, manicured curb

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Heat pump
• Private backyard

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW WINDOWS
• HEAT PUMP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Calculated building area: 1,782 (source: Realist); Foundation details: See remarks
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional; Land lease amount applicable
• HOA & community: Located in Mountain Greens park; Land lease applicable

Exterior

• Parking: Individual garage (has garage)
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Public water; City sewer; Power provided by PSE; Xfinity cable and internet
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; Single-level (one story)
• Construction: Cement plank construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Cement planked exterior; Awnings; Patio/porch/deck; Landscaped; Clubhouse (park amenity)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Vinyl plank; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 bathtubs; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: Water heater; Skylights; Vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fan(s); Double pane windows; Patio/porch/deck; Landscaped; Bath off primary
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room with electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,065 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.23%
• DSCR: 2.75
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,400
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: 4.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5402 52nd Ln SE	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,782 (0%)	1mo	$125,000	$70	99
5410 Chelan Ln SE	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+1%)	8mo	$109,900	$61	87
5250 College St SE #18	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-6%)	6mo	$140,000	$83	72
5250 College St SE #29	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,722 (-3%)	6mo	$75,000	$44	71
5516 Chelan Ln SE	0.19mi	3/2.0	2,016 (+13%)	1mo	$184,500	$92	68
5506 Yakima Ln SE	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-12%)	23mo	$135,000	$86	54
4500 Ruddell Rd SE #23	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-9%)	19mo	$120,000	$74	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $55,909
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.21×
• Total profit: $152,192
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98503

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,701 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,672/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $1,181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,206

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,254	-5% $1,217	+0% $1,181	+5% $1,144	+10% $1,108
Rent	-10% $967	-5% $1,074	+0% $1,181	+5% $1,287	+10% $1,394
Rate	-1.0pp $1,246	-0.5pp $1,214	base $1,181	+0.5pp $1,147	+1.0pp $1,113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5241 52nd Way SE Lacey, WA	4.0	2.5	2204	$3,100	$1.41	22d	1	0.17mi
5301 Ivy Hill Ln SE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	1361	$2,495	$1.83	44d	1	0.34mi
5216 Ivy Hill Ln SE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	1361	$2,595	$1.91	14d	1	0.36mi
4625 45th Ave SE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	975	$2,485	$2.55	14d	21	0.52mi
5208 43rd Ct SE Lacey, WA	4.0	2.5	2036	$2,700	$1.33	44d	1	0.57mi
6029 54th Ct SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.0	1558	$2,395	$1.54	14d	1	0.58mi
6031 Thornbury Pl SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1720	$2,749	$1.60	14d	1	0.68mi
4820 41st Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1716	$2,395	$1.40	14d	1	0.71mi
4533 Stonegate St SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1868	$2,695	$1.44	44d	1	0.72mi
4566 Beckonridge Loop SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1648	$2,595	$1.57	44d	1	0.77mi
5207 65th Ave SE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1546	$2,695	$1.74	14d	1	0.79mi
5407 Komachin Loop SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,500	$1.57	22d	1	0.79mi
5916 Illinois Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0	3.0	1580	$2,600	$1.65	44d	1	0.80mi
6736 Bailey St SE Lacey, WA	4.0	2.5	2148	$3,050	$1.42	22d	1	0.93mi
6642 Compass St SE Lacey, WA	4.0	2.5	2365	$2,995	$1.27	44d	1	0.93mi
6720 Alder Glen Dr SE Olympia, WA	4.0	2.0	1548	$3,600	$2.33	44d	1	1.02mi
5905 Cherokee Loop SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1570	$2,500	$1.59	44d	1	1.04mi
6949 Stone St SE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1712	$2,795	$1.63	22d	1	1.06mi
7053 Radius Loop SE Lacey, WA	4.0	2.5	2194	$2,995	$1.37	22d	1	1.18mi
3725 Wildspitz Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0–4.0	3.0	1774	$2,695	$1.52	44d	4	1.19mi
6849 41st Ave SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	2252	$3,000	$1.33	44d	1	1.25mi
7181 Radius Loop SE Lacey, WA	4.0	2.5	2130	$2,900	$1.36	14d	1	1.30mi
7317 Fair Oaks Rd SE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,400	$1.92	44d	1	1.41mi
3539 Landview Dr SE Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1314	$2,895	$2.20	14d	19	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $129,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,672 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,672 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$2,672
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,593
• − Management: −$2,593
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $12,929
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,103
• After-tax cash flow: $11,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lacey, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 41,656
• Household income: $89,002
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2195.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 7% Black 5% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -385.93%
• Current HPI: 361.0974
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) $125,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-16 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $129,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,672 · +1697.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.