3118 Bear Springs Dr · San Antonio, TX
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 110°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 22 days/yr
Wind risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 74.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +18.2/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +6.3/10.0
- DSCR +5.7/10.0
- Appreciation +5.0/10.0
- Livability +4.0/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +2.2/10.0
$139,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
This three-bedroom, two-bath home is conveniently located in a growing area at 1604 and Marbach Road. Easy access to the freeway, with dining and shopping nearby, this home offers both location and opportunity. The kitchen has double ovens, a dishwasher, a garbage disposal, and an upgraded microwave, making it easier to move forward with other home improvements. Additionally, the home has a converted garage that offers flexible space, but could be restored to its original form, depending on how the new owner envisions using the property. While the home needs TLC, it presents good potential for the right buyer with vision to customize it to their personal needs. With the right renovations, t
Key facts
- 6,534 sq ft lot
- Garage
- Community pool
Property features AI
Finance
- Financial info: Down payment resource not applicable
- HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Community amenities: pool, clubhouse, park/playground, basketball court; HOA fee $250 annually; Association transfer fee $325
Exterior
- Parking: Converted garage
- Utilities: Sewer system; Gas water heater
- Home design: West-facing; Pre-owned
- Construction: Cement fiber exterior; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Approximately 37 years old
- Exterior features: Deck / balcony; Storage building / shed; Mature trees; Street is paved
Interior
- Kitchen: Cooktop; Built-in oven; Double ovens; Microwave; Dishwasher; Kitchen approx. 11 x 9
- Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on lower level (11 x 12); Bedroom 2 (11 x 9); Bedroom 3 (10 x 9)
- Flooring: Carpeting
- Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bath with tub/shower combination, single vanity, whirlpool/garden tub (11 x 7)
- Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
- Interior features: Open floor plan; Living/dining room combination; Breakfast bar; Ground level / no steps; Converted garage used as living space; Utility room inside; Laundry in closet; All window coverings remain; Living area with fireplace
- Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Laundry on main level / laundry in closet
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
- Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
- Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Zoned schools: Big Country El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 617 students, 73% FRL); Francis R Scobee Middle (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,200 of 1,662 statewide, top 73%, 856 students, 73% FRL); Southwest H S (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,152 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools at 73% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $5k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
- Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
- By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.13% ✓
- Cap rate
- 7.37%
- Cash-on-cash
- 3.85%
- DSCR
- 1.17
- GRM
- 7.4
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $194,828
- List price
- $139,900
- Delta
- -28.19%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3118 Bear Springs Dr | 0.00mi | 3/2.0 | 1,172 (0%) | 1mo | $139,900 | $119 | 99 |
| 11419 Blue Mesa | 0.20mi | 3/1.5 | 1,161 (-1%) | 3mo | $195,000 | $168 | 85 |
| 10222 Canton Fld | 0.09mi | 3/2.5 | 1,243 (+6%) | 4mo | $183,000 | $147 | 80 |
| 2963 Ash Fld | 0.29mi | 3/2.5 | 1,177 (+0%) | 4mo | $185,000 | $157 | 80 |
| 11406 Clints Wl | 0.43mi | 3/2.0 | 1,248 (+6%) | 1mo | $135,000 | $108 | 68 |
| 11339 Yuba Trl | 0.36mi | 3/2.0 | 1,271 (+8%) | 2mo | $219,000 | $172 | 68 |
| 11426 Black Fox Dr | 0.67mi | 3/2.0 | 1,182 (+1%) | 2mo | $194,900 | $165 | 65 |
| 11424 Pine Mesa | 0.34mi | 3/2.0 | 1,056 (-10%) | 5mo | $215,000 | $204 | 64 |
| 10207 Athens Fld | 0.38mi | 3/2.0 | 1,044 (-11%) | 1mo | $189,900 | $182 | 63 |
| 10914 Soogan Trl | 0.72mi | 3/2.0 | 1,200 (+2%) | 1mo | $215,000 | $179 | 62 |
| 11434 Blue Mesa Dr | 0.19mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 996 (-15%) | 1mo | $137,750 | $138 | 60 |
| 11343 Two Wls | 0.48mi | 3/2.0 | 1,283 (+10%) | 4mo | $219,900 | $171 | 58 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 11.1%
- Equity multiple
- 1.64×
- Total profit
- $24,976
- Equity at exit
- $62,905
- IRR
- 13.4%
- Equity multiple
- 2.99×
- Total profit
- $77,890
- Equity at exit
- $96,944
Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 78245-2505
- Active inventory
- 1
- Price-to-rent
- 7.4×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,586 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$734
- Tax from tax record
- −$314 /mo · $3,770/yr
- Insurance
- −$58
- HOA
- −$21
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$333
- Net cashflow
- $126
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $205 | -5% $165 | +0% $126 | +5% $86 | +10% $46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $0 | -5% $63 | +0% $126 | +5% $188 | +10% $251 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $196 | -0.5pp $161 | base $126 | +0.5pp $89 | +1.0pp $52 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $34,975
- Closing costs
- $4,197
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 38 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10227 Brad Fld San Antonio, TX | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1443 | $1,680 | $1.16 | 45d | 1 | 0.16mi |
| 2923 Black River Ln San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1251 | $1,520 | $1.22 | 45d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 10247 Sunrise Fld San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1177 | $1,530 | $1.30 | 45d | 1 | 0.24mi |
| 11510 Hatchet Pass Dr San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1385 | $2,000 | $1.44 | 26d | 1 | 0.30mi |
| 10203 Sunset Fld San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1270 | $1,550 | $1.22 | 14d | 1 | 0.32mi |
| 11427 Long Trl San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1444 | $2,400 | $1.66 | 0d | 1 | 0.36mi |
| 10215 Athens Fld San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1160 | $1,450 | $1.25 | 0d | 1 | 0.41mi |
| 2730 Mud Lake Dr San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1287 | $1,550 | $1.20 | 26d | 1 | 0.45mi |
| 2730 Mud Lake Dr San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1287 | $1,550 | $1.20 | 6d | 1 | 0.45mi |
| 2891 Cherry Field Dr San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1136 | $1,300 | $1.14 | 26d | 1 | 0.50mi |
| 11331 Two Wells Dr San Antonio, TX | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1103 | $1,350 | $1.22 | 26d | 1 | 0.51mi |
| 11371 Fish Spgs San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1312 | $1,475 | $1.12 | 6d | 1 | 0.56mi |
| 11366 Olney Spgs San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1436 | $1,395 | $0.97 | 26d | 1 | 0.58mi |
| 11442 Potter Vly San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1356 | $1,500 | $1.11 | 6d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 2422 Buffalo Pass Dr San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1500 | $1,500 | $1.00 | 45d | 1 | 0.69mi |
| 10243 Raven Field Dr San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1023 | $1,700 | $1.66 | 45d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 10239 Raven Field Dr San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1252 | $1,620 | $1.29 | 0d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 10203 Raven Field Dr San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1235 | $1,700 | $1.38 | 26d | 1 | 0.72mi |
| 4445 Barberry Crk San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1400 | $1,650 | $1.18 | 6d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 11326 Widefield Ln San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1328 | $1,425 | $1.07 | 45d | 1 | 0.87mi |
| 9911 Boxer Crk San Antonio, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1357 | $1,500 | $1.11 | 45d | 1 | 0.87mi |
| 10314 Lynwood Vlg Unit 102 San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1356 | $1,550 | $1.14 | 19d | 1 | 0.89mi |
| 2515 Lynwood Bnd San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1357 | $1,495 | $1.10 | 6d | 1 | 0.92mi |
| 2318 Tulipwood Cv Unit 101 San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1357 | $1,625 | $1.20 | 26d | 1 | 0.92mi |
| 10311 Candlewood Way #101 San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1357 | $1,575 | $1.16 | 26d | 1 | 0.97mi |
| 10303 Candlewood Way #101 San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1357 | $1,499 | $1.10 | 26d | 1 | 0.97mi |
| 10338 Lynwood Br Unit 101 San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1380 | $1,500 | $1.09 | 45d | 1 | 0.98mi |
| 10338 Lynwood Br Unit 101 San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1380 | $1,500 | $1.09 | 24d | 1 | 0.98mi |
| 2307 Lynwood Bnd Unit 1 San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1357 | $1,550 | $1.14 | 45d | 1 | 0.99mi |
| 2307 Lynwood Bnd Unit 1 San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1357 | $1,550 | $1.14 | 19d | 1 | 0.99mi |
| 10351 Lynwood Br #102 San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1357 | $1,600 | $1.18 | 45d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 10347 Lynwood Br Unit 102 San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1357 | $1,525 | $1.12 | 45d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 2206 Sandlewood Cv Unit 102 San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1357 | $1,475 | $1.09 | 19d | 1 | 1.05mi |
| 10335 Lynwood Crk Unit 102 San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1356 | $1,550 | $1.14 | 45d | 1 | 1.06mi |
| 10335 Lynwood Crk Unit 102 San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1356 | $1,595 | $1.18 | 13d | 1 | 1.06mi |
| 10335 Lynwood Crk San Antonio, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1356 | $1,595 | $1.18 | 26d | 1 | 1.06mi |
| 9605 U.S. 90 San Antonio, TX | 2.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1024 | $1,299 | $1.27 | 0d | 1 | 1.19mi |
| 5706 Red Cyn San Antonio, TX | 2.0 | 1.0 | 968 | $1,295 | $1.34 | 45d | 1 | 1.40mi |
HOA detail
- Monthly dues
- $21 · $252/yr
- Likely covers
- trash
Listing history 3 events
-
2026-05-12historical Active Option 790-char remark
-
2026-05-05$139,900 New 790-char remark
-
1989-11-01soldstatus
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $3,770 · $314/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $3,770 · $314/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $19,029
- − Mortgage interest
- −$7,837
- − Property taxes
- −$3,770
- − Insurance
- −$700
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,522
- − Management
- −$1,522
- − HOA
- −$252
- − Depreciation
- −$4,070
- Taxable loss
- −$644
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$154
- After-tax cash flow
- $1,662/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Southwest ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4840950
- Math proficiency
- 21% ▼ -21.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 31% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $43,362
- Composite
- 22.22/100
- National rank
- #8153
- State rank
- #701 of 826 in TX
Livability — San Antonio
- Score
- 80/100
- State rank
- #31
- US rank
- #1616
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
No demographic data for this ZIP.
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- —
- Current HPI
- —
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
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| Technology | 5 | $198B |
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| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
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| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
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| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
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| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
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Price history
5 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-28 Sold (MLS) — LERA
- 2026-05-25 Pending — LERA
- 2026-05-12 Contingent — LERA
- 2026-05-05 Listed $139,900 LERA
- 1989-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
Property tax history
+6.7%/yrLatest (2025): $3,770 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…