5002 Natchez Trce · Arcola, TX 77545

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,659 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 7,148 sqft lot Est $287k · 29% under $60/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 5002 Natchez Trace — a home nestled in the established community of Fresno. This spacious property offers a functional floor plan with generous living areas, abundant natural light, and comfortable spaces for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen provides ample cabinetry and workspace. Enjoy a large backyard with room for outdoor gatherings, pets, or future customization. Conveniently located with easy access to major highways, shopping, dining, schools, and nearby employment centers, this home combines suburban comfort with everyday convenience. A fantastic opportunity to own a home in a growing area of Fort Bend County.

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Large backyard
• 7,148 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS
• ESTABLISHED COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool; Post Oak Property Management oversees the association; Annual association fee of $715

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2022; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick, stone, and wood siding exterior
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Private yard; Fenced backyard; Corner lot; Side yard; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (possible)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite counters; Kitchen island; Pantry; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $463 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 5.0% in Arcola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,425 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 35% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.68%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,007
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5010 Pine Haven Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,732 (+4%)	6mo	$299,900	$173	80
4927 Oakwood Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,595 (-4%)	8mo	$324,990	$204	80
4922 Oakwood Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+1%)	7mo	$329,990	$196	79
4946 Pine Haven Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,847 (+11%)	0mo	$319,000	$173	72
4918 Natchez Trce	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-13%)	4mo	$245,000	$170	69
5014 Balcolm Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (+7%)	9mo	$332,990	$187	68
4919 Oakwood Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,831 (+10%)	8mo	$339,990	$186	61
4426 Eaglewood Trail Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,696 (+2%)	6mo	$240,000	$142	60
4527 Green Fawn Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-7%)	3mo	$225,000	$146	60
4615 Pleasant Trl	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,540 (-7%)	9mo	$234,760	$152	56
4730 Hardwood Glen Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,867 (+12%)	2mo	$260,000	$139	49
1603 Bonnie Lea Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,878 (+13%)	2mo	$225,000	$120	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,993
• Equity at exit: $39,997

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $16,636
• Equity at exit: $34,355

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77545

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,455 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $463

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,869

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $605	-5% $534	+0% $463	+5% $392	+10% $321
Rent	-10% $269	-5% $366	+0% $463	+5% $560	+10% $657
Rate	-1.0pp $566	-0.5pp $515	base $463	+0.5pp $410	+1.0pp $356

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4931 Natchez Trce Fresno, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,350	$1.28	44d	1	0.10mi
1402 Windom Court Way Fresno, TX	4.0	2.5	1831	$2,300	$1.26	44d	1	0.21mi
11727 Highway 6 Fresno, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$2,929	$3.04	5d	15	0.81mi
919 Yorkshire Holw Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,100	$1.39	44d	1	0.96mi
4619 Monarch Blue Ln Fresno, TX	3.0	2.5	1933	$1,846	$0.95	44d	1	1.05mi
3932 Teal Run Place Ct Fresno, TX	4.0	2.0	1914	$2,150	$1.12	44d	1	1.15mi
2703 Facet Creek Dr Fresno, TX	4.0	2.0	2099	$2,306	$1.10	5d	1	1.24mi
2403 Orchard Run Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$2,800	$1.92	4d	1	1.48mi
3623 Elmwood Dale Dr Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,765	$1.14	44d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $205,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $205,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $205,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   remarks 653-char remark
6. 2026-06-02
   listed $205,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,463
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,357
• − Management: −$2,357
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $2,482
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$596
• After-tax cash flow: $4,959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Arcola, TX, is in good condition with minor repairs needed in the kitchen and bathrooms. It offers a good investment opportunity with updates that can significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Signs of wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace worn kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and appearance
• Resale Upgrade bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance the home's appeal and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Signs of wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace worn kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and appearance ↑
• Resale Upgrade bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance the home's appeal and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Arcola

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1425
• US rank: #24358

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arcola, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,236
• Household income: $94,474
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 360.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.98%
• Current HPI: 231.3921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $205,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+31.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,907 · +16.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.