404 N 12th St · Herrin, IL 62948

$29,900

2 bd · None ba · 1,072 sqft · SingleFamily · 103 Days on market

Built 1920 6,969 sqft lot ↓ 8% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment property or a starter home... Hardwood floors, Lots of storage areas, Someone could make Man Cave or Craft Area or Work Shop With bonus rooms on back of House. Paved parking in back and a shed....COME CHECK IT OUT...BEING SOLD AS-IS

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 103 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Homeowner tax exemption
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story design; Fee simple ownership; Property more than 100 years old; Entry level and primary living spaces on the main floor
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Built before 1978
• Exterior features: Level lot; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 140

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level — approximately 17 x 16, linoleum flooring
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (including master) — all on the main level; Bedroom dimensions: 16 x 13 (master), 16 x 10 (one bedroom), additional bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring in living room, master bedroom and one bedroom; Linoleum flooring in kitchen
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating
• Interior features: 4 total rooms; Unfinished full basement
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $580 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $27k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.6% vs local median 8.5% in Herrin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#667 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Herrin CUSD 4 (suburban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #364 of 620 in IL (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Herrin Middle School (math 24% / reading 28%, grade F, #318 of 665 statewide, top 48%, 507 students, 0% FRL); Herrin High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #218 of 693 statewide, top 35%, 686 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 56% district-wide (56 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 130 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.3% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $27,209 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.11%
• DSCR: 4.70
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $88,976
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 N 12th St	0.00mi	2/—	1,072 (0%)	0mo	$25,000	$23	100
413 N 8th St	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+1%)	5mo	$70,000	$65	80
320 N 9th St	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,162 (+8%)	1mo	$159,700	$137	72
208 S 10th St St	0.36mi	2/1.0	1,140 (+6%)	5mo	$115,000	$101	68
708 N 20th St	0.57mi	2/1.0	1,044 (-3%)	5mo	$86,000	$82	65
716 N 13th St	0.24mi	2/1.0	1,232 (+15%)	0mo	$119,000	$97	64
520 S 6th St	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,060 (-1%)	2mo	$115,000	$108	59
211 W Bryan St	0.59mi	2/1.0	984 (-8%)	1mo	$55,000	$56	58
1316 N Park Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0	990 (-8%)	1mo	$82,300	$83	56
501 S 7th St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,148 (+7%)	0mo	$118,000	$103	55
1500 N 13th St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	988 (-8%)	4mo	$54,000	$55	46
804 W Harrison St	0.75mi	2/1.0	940 (-12%)	2mo	$71,000	$76	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 83.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.84×
• Total profit: $32,143
• Equity at exit: $4,458

10-year hold

• IRR: 86.8%
• Equity multiple: 10.05×
• Total profit: $75,783
• Equity at exit: $2,585

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62948

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,084 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,290/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $580

Break-even live

Break-even rent $350

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Court C Herrin, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	43d	1	0.94mi
3 Ct D Herrin, IL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	43d	1	0.98mi
715 N 35th St Unit D Herrin, IL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,200	$1.41	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   price $29,900
3. 2026-03-12
   price $34,900
4. 2026-01-16
   listed $39,900 Active
5. 2021-11-09
   soldstatus $30,000
6. 2021-11-08
   soldstatus $30,000 250-char remark

   Show marketing remark (250 chars)

   Great investment property or a starter home... Hardwood floors, Lots of storage areas, Someone could make Man Cave or Craft Area or Work Shop With bonus rooms on back of House. Paved parking in back and a shed....COME CHECK IT OUT...BEING SOLD AS-IS

7. 2021-11-08
   soldstatus $30,000 250-char remark

   Show marketing remark (250 chars)

   Great investment property or a starter home... Hardwood floors, Lots of storage areas, Someone could make Man Cave or Craft Area or Work Shop With bonus rooms on back of House. Paved parking in back and a shed....COME CHECK IT OUT...BEING SOLD AS-IS

8. 2021-07-06
   listed $32,500 250-char remark

   Show marketing remark (250 chars)

   Great investment property or a starter home... Hardwood floors, Lots of storage areas, Someone could make Man Cave or Craft Area or Work Shop With bonus rooms on back of House. Paved parking in back and a shed....COME CHECK IT OUT...BEING SOLD AS-IS

9. 2021-07-06
   listed $32,500 250-char remark

   Show marketing remark (250 chars)

   Great investment property or a starter home... Hardwood floors, Lots of storage areas, Someone could make Man Cave or Craft Area or Work Shop With bonus rooms on back of House. Paved parking in back and a shed....COME CHECK IT OUT...BEING SOLD AS-IS

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,290 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,290 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,011
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$1,290
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,041
• − Management: −$1,041
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $6,945
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,667
• After-tax cash flow: $5,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herrin CUSD 4
• NCES district ID: 1718810
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $38,824
• Composite: 20.56/100
• National rank: #8558
• State rank: #364 of 620 in IL

Livability — Herrin

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #667
• US rank: #13670

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Herrin, IL
• City population: 12,728
• Population (ZIP): 12,728

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,553 people
• By 2030: 70,090 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 70,345 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 69,394 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 63,590 · -8.6%
• By 2100: 51,154 · -26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+25.0 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.82%
• Current HPI: 131.1617
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $29,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $34,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listed $39,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-08 Sold (MLS) $30,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-08 Sold (MLS) $30,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-06 Listed $32,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-06 Listed $32,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+23.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,290 · +20.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.