104 Aerie Way · East Quogue, NY 11942

$529,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,341 sqft · Townhouse public records · 183 Days on market

Built 2014 1,320 sqft lot $394/sqft · 11% below area Est $592k · 11% under $547/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Upper Unit Condo located in the Gated Park-Like Setting of Eagles Walk Community is for 55 and Older. The location is perfectly situated close to the Club House and the Heated Salt Water Pool! The interior features high ceilings and an open floor plan for the living room/dining room and kitchen! Your laundry room is conveniently right off the kitchen. As you travel down the hallway you will find a generously sized hall closet, your private temperature control, and your Guest Bedroom / Office featuring a private balcony. The Primary Bedroom boasts high ceilings, plenty of windows, and two large closets– one of which is a walk- in. You will also find the en-suite full bath. Your garage features an attic for additional storage. This condo is perfect to enjoy all year round! From the picturesque changing of the leaves in the Fall, to relaxing by the community's heated salt water pool, to watching the East End transform into a Winter Wonderland, there's something for everyone! Southampton's premier beaches are just a short drive from your new home. Come experience the lifestyle that you have earned and deserve!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Two large closets
• Private balcony

Tags

• GATED PARK-LIKE SETTING
• HEATED SALT WATER POOL
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE TEMPERATURE CONTROL
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• TWO LARGE CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $529k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($105k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $529k).
• Recommended offer: $466k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.1% vs local median 10.6% in East Quogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $148k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($466k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $270k; list at $529k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $465,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.62%
• DSCR: 4.14
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $591,821
• List price: $529,000
• Delta: -10.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1601 Aerie Way	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,275 (-5%)	8mo	$490,000	$384	83
1503 Aerie Way #1503	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,300 (-3%)	12mo	$545,000	$419	82
1404 Aerie Way #1404	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,250 (-7%)	12mo	$510,000	$408	78
401 Aerie Way #401	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,250 (-7%)	13mo	$565,000	$452	76
701 Aerie Way #701	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,247 (-7%)	18mo	$560,000	$449	70
202 Aerie Way #202	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,163 (-13%)	18mo	$343,900	$296	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.17×
• Total profit: $469,760
• Equity at exit: $78,876

10-year hold

• IRR: 74.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.60×
• Total profit: $1,125,191
• Equity at exit: $45,738

Cash invested: $148,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,811 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,774
• Tax from tax record: −$232 /mo · $2,788/yr
• Insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$547
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,320
• Net cashflow: $8,717

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,777

Max offer price $529,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $9,016	-5% $8,866	+0% $8,717	+5% $8,567	+10% $8,417
Rent	-10% $7,468	-5% $8,092	+0% $8,717	+5% $9,341	+10% $9,966
Rate	-1.0pp $8,983	-0.5pp $8,851	base $8,717	+0.5pp $8,580	+1.0pp $8,440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,250
• Closing costs: $15,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Birchwood Ln East Quogue, NY	3.0	3.0	1635	$5,000	$3.06	44d	1	0.36mi
4 E End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	1.0	976	$4,500	$4.61	44d	1	0.50mi
138 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1040	$16,000	$15.38	12d	1	0.80mi
168 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1004	$4,000	$3.98	44d	1	0.84mi
2 Fairview Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1440	$17,500	$12.15	18d	1	0.96mi
30 Vail Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1260	$38,500	$30.56	25d	1	1.05mi
104 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	900	$15,000	$16.67	44d	1	1.13mi
6 Rolling Hill Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1697	$18,000	$10.61	0d	1	1.25mi
73 W Tiana Rd Unit 11 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$11,000	$11.00	44d	1	1.32mi
85 Lewis Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1593	$4,450	$2.79	44d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $547 · $6,564/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolsecurity

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $529,000 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $529,000 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $529,000 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $529,000 Active 178 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $529,000 Active 177 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $529,000 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $529,000 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $529,000 Active 171 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $529,000 Active 170 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $529,000 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $529,000 Active 166 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $529,000 Active 165 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $529,000 Active 164 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $529,000 Active 163 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $529,000 Active 162 DOM
16. 2026-03-27
    price $529,000 1134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1134 chars)

    This Upper Unit Condo located in the Gated Park-Like Setting of Eagles Walk Community is for 55 and Older. The location is perfectly situated close to the Club House and the Heated Salt Water Pool! The interior features high ceilings and an open floor plan for the living room/dining room and kitchen! Your laundry room is conveniently right off the kitchen. As you travel down the hallway you will find a generously sized hall closet, your private temperature control, and your Guest Bedroom / Office featuring a private balcony. The Primary Bedroom boasts high ceilings, plenty of windows, and two large closets– one of which is a walk- in. You will also find the en-suite full bath. Your garage features an attic for additional storage. This condo is perfect to enjoy all year round! From the picturesque changing of the leaves in the Fall, to relaxing by the community's heated salt water pool, to watching the East End transform into a Winter Wonderland, there's something for everyone! Southampton's premier beaches are just a short drive from your new home. Come experience the lifestyle that you have earned and deserve!

17. 2025-12-17
    listed $549,900 Active 1134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1134 chars)

    This Upper Unit Condo located in the Gated Park-Like Setting of Eagles Walk Community is for 55 and Older. The location is perfectly situated close to the Club House and the Heated Salt Water Pool! The interior features high ceilings and an open floor plan for the living room/dining room and kitchen! Your laundry room is conveniently right off the kitchen. As you travel down the hallway you will find a generously sized hall closet, your private temperature control, and your Guest Bedroom / Office featuring a private balcony. The Primary Bedroom boasts high ceilings, plenty of windows, and two large closets– one of which is a walk- in. You will also find the en-suite full bath. Your garage features an attic for additional storage. This condo is perfect to enjoy all year round! From the picturesque changing of the leaves in the Fall, to relaxing by the community's heated salt water pool, to watching the East End transform into a Winter Wonderland, there's something for everyone! Southampton's premier beaches are just a short drive from your new home. Come experience the lifestyle that you have earned and deserve!

18. 2005-02-03
    soldstatus $270,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,788 · $232/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,864 · $489/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,076/yr (+$256/mo · 110.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $189,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,632
• − Property taxes: −$2,788
• − Insurance: −$2,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,178
• − Management: −$15,178
• − HOA: −$6,564
• − Depreciation: −$15,389
• Taxable income: $102,355
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$24,565
• After-tax cash flow: $80,035/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• City population: 5,871
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+95.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $529,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Listed $549,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,788 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.