4913 Stump Rd · Greenback, TN 37803

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1985 4.94 ac lot Est $281k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PICTURE PERFECT MTN CABIN W/MASTER BDRM ON MAIN, LG LIVING W/CATH. CEILING. 24X60 BARN W/REC RM, FULL BA and KIT. LG EXPANSION FENCING and CROSS FENCE. VERY SECLUDED and PRIVATE 5 MIN TO CHILHOWEE LAKE

Key facts

• 4.94 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 1.8% in Greenback — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#192 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Blount County (rural): math 29% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #52 of 139 in TN (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lanier Elementary (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #546 of 952 statewide, top 61%, 337 students, 0% FRL); William Blount High School (math 18% / reading 46%, grade F, #56 of 332 statewide, top 20%, 1,545 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 44% district-wide (44 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 210 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 937 units permitted in Blount County in 2024 (57 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Blount County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $85k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $156k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.53%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $281,424
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6917 Four Mile Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+14%)	12mo	$320,000	$246	36
6611 Four Mile Rd. Rd	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (+10%)	24mo	$245,000	$194	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,118
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $26,124
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37803

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,024 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $836/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,521

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $511	-5% $455	+0% $398	+5% $342	+10% $285
Rent	-10% $238	-5% $318	+0% $398	+5% $478	+10% $558
Rate	-1.0pp $499	-0.5pp $449	base $398	+0.5pp $346	+1.0pp $294

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2024-02-16
   status Pending
2. 2022-12-30
   status Pending
3. 2022-11-26
   price $199,900
4. 2022-10-24
   price $225,000
5. 2022-09-21
   price $249,900
6. 2022-08-06
   listed $285,000 Active
7. 2002-05-13
   soldstatus $155,900
8. 2002-05-08
   soldstatus $155,900 201-char remark

   Show marketing remark (201 chars)

   PICTURE PERFECT MTN CABIN W/MASTER BDRM ON MAIN, LG LIVING W/CATH. CEILING. 24X60 BARN W/REC RM, FULL BA and KIT. LG EXPANSION FENCING and CROSS FENCE. VERY SECLUDED and PRIVATE 5 MIN TO CHILHOWEE LAKE

9. 2002-02-20
   listed $159,900 201-char remark

   Show marketing remark (201 chars)

   PICTURE PERFECT MTN CABIN W/MASTER BDRM ON MAIN, LG LIVING W/CATH. CEILING. 24X60 BARN W/REC RM, FULL BA and KIT. LG EXPANSION FENCING and CROSS FENCE. VERY SECLUDED and PRIVATE 5 MIN TO CHILHOWEE LAKE

10. 1999-11-19
    soldstatus $117,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $836 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$583/yr (+$49/mo · 69.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$836
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,944
• − Management: −$1,944
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $1,559
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$374
• After-tax cash flow: $4,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blount County
• NCES district ID: 4700300
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,764
• Composite: 25.99/100
• National rank: #7322
• State rank: #52 of 139 in TN

Livability — Greenback

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #15261

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Blount County · 112,418 people
• Metro: Knoxville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 33,822
• Household income: $83,446
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 453.0

Population outlook (Blount County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,873 people
• By 2030: 139,460 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 144,767 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 147,393 · +8.5%
• By 2075: 151,597 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 147,393 · +8.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Blount

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.7) · D 25.5% · R 73.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -39.4pp · 2024: -47.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.7 2020: R+44.2 2016: R+48.8 2012: R+45.7 2008: R+39.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.87%
• Current HPI: 317.1439
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Knoxville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+69.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2024-02-16 Pending — Knoxville MLS
• 2022-12-30 Pending — Knoxville MLS
• 2022-11-26 Price Changed $199,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2022-10-24 Price Changed $225,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2022-09-21 Price Changed $249,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2022-08-06 Listed $285,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2002-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $155,900 Public Records
• 2002-05-08 Sold (MLS) $155,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2002-02-20 Listed $159,900 Knoxville MLS
• 1999-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $117,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $836 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.