16032 Tree Line Dr · Hudson, FL 34667

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1978 8,800 sqft lot Est $210k · at est. $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2/2/1 mint condition home, located in Viva Villas subdivision. (no flood ins. needed)This turn key home has 1260 sqft of living area, has plenty of curb appeal, updated kitchen, tile and wall to wall throughout, all neutral interior colors, newer A/C and roof. Also comes with a huge fenced in backyard. Mrs. Clean lives here. Motivated sellers!

Key facts

• Fully furnished
• 8,800 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN PENINSULA
• OVERSIZED FLORIDA SUNROOM
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• FULLY FURNISHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply; Total annual fees listed as $240 (approx. $20/month)
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly approx. $10 / $120 annually); Association names: Juanita Lofton; Viva Villa Civic Association; Association approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; West-facing
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built on approximately 0.2-acre lot
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed, and screened patio/porch; Patio; Porch; Sliding doors; Vinyl fencing; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Window treatments; Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $424 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.4% in Hudson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in FL, #4,856 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hudson Primary Academy (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 647 students, 90% FRL); Hudson High School (math 45% / reading 40%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,387 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 48% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 790 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,105/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 946% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $205k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.87%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,420
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8524 Winter Haven Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,278 (+1%)	9mo	$214,000	$167	84
16107 Sea Pines Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+1%)	10mo	$100,000	$78	78
8611 Jolly Roger Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,222 (-3%)	6mo	$250,000	$205	73
8640 Horizon Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+2%)	9mo	$230,000	$179	69
8637 Summer Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+13%)	5mo	$236,000	$165	66
8317 Needles Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+8%)	10mo	$250,000	$183	61
8523 Lafitte Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+14%)	5mo	$131,000	$91	61
15836 Lyle Cir	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+11%)	7mo	$313,000	$223	60
8329 Gulf Way	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,116 (-11%)	3mo	$225,000	$202	59
8316 Needles Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,407 (+12%)	9mo	$135,000	$96	51
8517 Horizon Ln	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (-14%)	2mo	$160,000	$147	49
8024 Gulf Way	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,417 (+12%)	8mo	$215,000	$152	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-12,455
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-223
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 790
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,105 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $704/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $424

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,569

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8516 Inwood Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,900	$1.70	5d	1	0.26mi
8512 Longboat Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,095	$1.40	17d	1	0.31mi
8316 Needles Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1407	$1,900	$1.35	13d	1	0.36mi
15902 Spyglass Ter Hudson, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1300	$1,910	$1.47	3d	20	0.50mi
7538 Mako Dr Hudson, FL	4.0	2.0	1686	$1,895	$1.12	24d	1	1.20mi
7527 Hatteras Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1524	$2,495	$1.64	24d	1	1.20mi
7841 Akron Ave Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,655	$1.34	4d	1	1.31mi
14709 Shadowwood Blvd Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1568	$1,699	$1.08	5d	1	1.35mi
14611 Ivy Chase Ln Hudson, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$1,450	$1.42	24d	4	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-21
   listed $205,000 Active
2. 2011-03-24
   soldstatus $80,000
3. 2010-03-04
   soldstatus $75,000
4. 2010-02-24
   soldstatus $75,000 355-char remark

   Show marketing remark (355 chars)

   Beautiful 2/2/1 mint condition home, located in Viva Villas subdivision. (no flood ins. needed)This turn key home has 1260 sqft of living area, has plenty of curb appeal, updated kitchen, tile and wall to wall throughout, all neutral interior colors, newer A/C and roof. Also comes with a huge fenced in backyard. Mrs. Clean lives here. Motivated sellers!

5. 2010-01-21
   listed $77,000 355-char remark

   Show marketing remark (355 chars)

   Beautiful 2/2/1 mint condition home, located in Viva Villas subdivision. (no flood ins. needed)This turn key home has 1260 sqft of living area, has plenty of curb appeal, updated kitchen, tile and wall to wall throughout, all neutral interior colors, newer A/C and roof. Also comes with a huge fenced in backyard. Mrs. Clean lives here. Motivated sellers!

6. 2008-10-13
   listed $109,900
7. 2007-12-15
   listed $110,000
8. 2007-12-10
   historical
9. 2007-09-28
   listed $149,000
10. 2007-03-23
    listed $149,000
11. 1984-05-01
    soldstatus $47,000
12. 1978-08-01
    soldstatus $36,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $704 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,702 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$997/yr (+$83/mo · 141.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 26% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,265
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$704
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,021
• − Management: −$2,021
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $1,806
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$433
• After-tax cash flow: $4,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hudson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #4856

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 45,307
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+455.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $205,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2010-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2010-02-24 Sold (MLS) $75,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-21 Listed $77,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-13 Listed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-15 Listed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-28 Listed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-23 Listed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1984-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records
• 1978-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $36,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $704 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.