5130 Chet Dr · Elfers, FL 34652

$140,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1968 5,950 sqft lot Est $235k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cash or Hard Money only. Probate listing.

Key facts

• 5,950 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1968

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $244 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.6% in Elfers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#167 in FL, #2,486 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anclote Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 420 students, 81% FRL); Gulf Middle School (math 34% / reading 33%, grade F, #428 of 571 statewide, top 76%, 901 students, 83% FRL); Anclote High School (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,205 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 48% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 644 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.46%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,624
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3645 Colonial Hills Dr	0.22mi	2/1.5	1,128 (0%)	1mo	$211,000	$187	87
5027 Manor Dr	0.22mi	2/1.5	1,134 (+0%)	0mo	$229,000	$202	87
5300 Falcon Dr	0.28mi	2/1.5	1,128 (0%)	1mo	$202,000	$179	84
5200 Dove Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,063 (-6%)	1mo	$267,000	$251	80
5203 Overton Dr	0.40mi	2/1.5	1,128 (0%)	1mo	$235,000	$208	79
3547 Woodcock Dr	0.40mi	2/1.5	1,128 (0%)	2mo	$180,000	$160	78
3542 Bedford St	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-6%)	2mo	$155,000	$147	70
5712 Otis Dr	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,128 (0%)	1mo	$244,000	$216	68
3643 Bedford St	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,024 (-9%)	1mo	$245,000	$239	59
3613 Bedford St	0.41mi	2/1.0	984 (-13%)	0mo	$242,000	$246	55
4711 Beacon Hill Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,224 (+8%)	1mo	$270,000	$221	54
5700 Perkin Dr	0.55mi	2/1.5	1,272 (+13%)	1mo	$232,000	$182	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-10,772
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,515
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34652

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 644
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,641 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,125/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,333

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $323	-5% $283	+0% $244	+5% $204	+10% $164
Rent	-10% $114	-5% $179	+0% $244	+5% $308	+10% $373
Rate	-1.0pp $314	-0.5pp $279	base $244	+0.5pp $207	+1.0pp $170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3252 Peterborough St Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,631	$1.26	6d	1	0.22mi
3511 Cambridge St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	936	$2,100	$2.24	6d	1	0.25mi
5232 Sparrow Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,975	$2.02	25d	1	0.27mi
3433 Monticello St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.5	960	$1,650	$1.72	25d	1	0.38mi
4834 Salem Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,400	$1.62	0d	1	0.40mi
3029 Corona Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	894	$1,950	$2.18	6d	1	0.60mi
5606 Mirada Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,550	$1.79	16d	1	0.65mi
4117 Highland Loop New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,599	$1.16	14d	1	0.66mi
5020 Vickers Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	863	$1,495	$1.73	0d	1	0.67mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	5d	1	0.70mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	16d	1	0.70mi
5319 Drift Tide Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	1142	$1,500	$1.31	11d	1	0.75mi
3421 Tricon Ln #12 Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,095	$1.26	0d	1	0.75mi
5906 Elkhorn Blvd Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,395	$1.24	16d	1	0.76mi
3639 Madison St New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,700	$1.30	25d	1	0.83mi
3847 Lighthouse Way New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,595	$1.39	23d	1	0.86mi
4022 Davit Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	19d	1	0.87mi
4031 Davit Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,600	$1.40	19d	1	0.90mi
4723 Aegean Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,636	$1.64	6d	1	0.94mi
2552 Chancery Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,595	$1.95	25d	1	0.95mi
4301 Straits Ln New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.5	1284	$1,790	$1.39	25d	1	0.97mi
2610 Templewood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	6d	1	0.97mi
3301 Rosefield Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1340	$2,100	$1.57	19d	1	0.98mi
4518 Audrey Ln Unit 4551 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	23d	1	1.02mi
3439 Clydesdale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	968	$1,395	$1.44	6d	1	1.04mi
4540 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	25d	1	1.04mi
4551 Audrey Ln NEW PRT RCHY, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	23d	1	1.04mi
4620 Tropical Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	3d	1	1.05mi
2509 Sweetwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	988	$1,650	$1.67	19d	1	1.05mi
4529 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	23d	1	1.06mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	0d	7	1.07mi
4548 Belfast Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,575	$1.47	19d	1	1.08mi
4645 Irene Loop New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,700	$1.47	0d	1	1.09mi
4835 Blossom Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1174	$1,700	$1.45	25d	1	1.09mi
4554 Nimmer Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1180	$1,600	$1.36	16d	1	1.09mi
4133 Grayton Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	1068	$1,727	$1.62	6d	1	1.09mi
6036 Chesham Dr #5 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	825	$1,275	$1.55	6d	1	1.10mi
4221 Touchton Pl New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	888	$1,300	$1.46	25d	1	1.10mi
2412 Arcadia Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1360	$1,603	$1.18	25d	1	1.10mi
4540 Irene Loop New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,550	$2.02	25d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   status Active
3. 2026-03-19
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-13
   listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,125 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,125 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,695
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$3,125
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,576
• − Management: −$1,576
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $804
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$193
• After-tax cash flow: $2,731/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Elfers

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #2486

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elfers, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,444
• Household income: $56,931
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 310.8347
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.72%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+15.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,125 · +363.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.