87927 Alder Loop · Windemere, MN 55783

$34,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 205 Days on market

Built 1976 0.52 ac lot $38/sqft · 82% below area ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice buildable wooded lot offering privacy and natural surroundings. Property includes an existing well and septic system. The current septic has an older drain field and will most likely require a mound system. A great opportunity to build your future home or cabin in a peaceful setting. Sturgeon Lake and Rush Lake deeded access to private, shared swimming beach and boat launch ... $35 per year association fee.

Key facts

• Existing well
• Peaceful setting
• Buildable wooded lot

Tags

• BUILDABLE WOODED LOT
• EXISTING WELL
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• PEACEFUL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $552 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($978 rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Willow River Public School District (rural): math 24% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #261 of 301 in MN (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 116 units permitted in Pine County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $591 of equity ($241 loan paydown + $350 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Pine County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $29k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.73%
• DSCR: 4.01
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,341
• List price: $34,900
• Delta: -83.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 70.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.66×
• Total profit: $35,786
• Equity at exit: $11,918

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.49×
• Total profit: $82,962
• Equity at exit: $15,840

Cash invested: $9,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55783

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $978 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $280/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $552

Break-even live

Break-even rent $280

Max offer price $34,900

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,725
• Closing costs: $1,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $34,900 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $34,900 Active 204 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $34,900 Active 203 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $34,900 Active 202 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $34,900 Active 200 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $34,900 Active 199 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $34,900 Active 196 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $34,900 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $34,900 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $34,900 Active 192 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $34,900 Active 190 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $34,900 Active 189 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $34,900 Active 188 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $34,900 Active 187 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $34,900 Active 186 DOM
16. 2026-01-27
    soldstatus $29,000 Sold 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    Nice buildable wooded lot offering privacy and natural surroundings. Property includes an existing well and septic system. The current septic has an older drain field and will most likely require a mound system. A great opportunity to build your future home or cabin in a peaceful setting. Sturgeon Lake and Rush Lake deeded access to private, shared swimming beach and boat launch ... $35 per year association fee.

17. 2026-01-11
    status Pending 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    Nice buildable wooded lot offering privacy and natural surroundings. Property includes an existing well and septic system. The current septic has an older drain field and will most likely require a mound system. A great opportunity to build your future home or cabin in a peaceful setting. Sturgeon Lake and Rush Lake deeded access to private, shared swimming beach and boat launch ... $35 per year association fee.

18. 2025-11-25
    listed $34,900 Active 289-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    Nice buildable wooded lot offering privacy and natural surroundings. Property includes an existing well and septic system. The current septic has an older drain field and will most likely require a mound system. A great opportunity to build your future home or cabin in a peaceful setting. Sturgeon Lake and Rush Lake deeded access to private, shared swimming beach and boat launch ... $35 per year association fee.

19. 2025-11-25
    listed $34,900 Active 416-char remark

    Show marketing remark (416 chars)

    Nice buildable wooded lot offering privacy and natural surroundings. Property includes an existing well and septic system. The current septic has an older drain field and will most likely require a mound system. A great opportunity to build your future home or cabin in a peaceful setting. Sturgeon Lake and Rush Lake deeded access to private, shared swimming beach and boat launch ... $35 per year association fee.

20. 2004-06-25
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $280 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $335 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: +$55/yr (+$5/mo · 19.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,955
• − Property taxes: −$280
• − Insurance: −$174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$939
• − Management: −$939
• − Depreciation: −$1,015
• Taxable income: $6,431
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,543
• After-tax cash flow: $5,075/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willow River Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2742750
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $42,510
• Composite: 29.14/100
• National rank: #6584
• State rank: #261 of 301 in MN

Livability — Windemere

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,487

Population outlook (Pine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,565 people
• By 2030: 26,567 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 23,878 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 20,931 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 15,372 · -44.2%
• By 2100: 11,032 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Romanian 10% Scottish 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pine

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.2) · D 31.6% · R 66.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -35.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.2 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+26.3 2012: R+0.7 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.00%
• Current HPI: 240.7334
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-27 Sold (MLS) $29,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-11 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-25 Listed $34,900 LSAR
• 2025-11-25 Listed $34,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $280 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.