39 Bellini Rd · DeFuniak Springs, FL 32433

$225,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · Manufactured · 119 Days on market

Built 2025 0.35 ac lot Est $263k · 14% under ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Move-in ready and available for immediate purchase, this beautifully completed Aspire model offers a modern open-concept layout designed for comfortable everyday living. This home features 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, including a private primary suite located separately from the additional bedrooms for added privacy. The primary bedroom offers generous space, natural light, and an en-suite bathroom. The heart of the home includes: • Open living room (approx. 17' x 12'5'') • Spacious dining area • Functional kitchen layout with island seating and clear sightlines into the main living space Three additional bedrooms are thoughtfully positioned on the opposite side of

Key facts

• En-suite bathroom
• Fresh sod
• Gravel driveway

Tags

• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN LAYOUT
• GRAVEL DRIVEWAY
• FRESH SOD
• DEDICATED UTILITY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: Subdivision: OAKWOOD LAKES ESTATES

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Electric service; Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Mobile home style; Single-story; New construction (built 2025)
• Construction: Shingle roof; Siding: brick and vinyl with vinyl trim; Foundation off grade
• Exterior features: Front porch; Lot is cleared and level; County road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range hood; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the first floor); Master bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 total bathrooms (2 full)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Recessed lighting; Built-in shelving; Washer/dryer hookup; Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-39/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.8% in DeFuniak Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#694 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Defuniak Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 669 students, 69% FRL); Walton High School (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #154 of 667 statewide, top 24%, 856 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 48% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,964/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 356% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,411 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $262,550
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
348 Dr Roberts Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,512 (+2%)	17mo	$150,000	$99	76
52 E Michaelangelo Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-8%)	13mo	$240,000	$178	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $122,362
• Equity at exit: $202,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.72×
• Total profit: $360,559
• Equity at exit: $437,126

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32433

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,964 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,968

Max offer price $224,526

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-04-06
    price $225,000
18. 2026-02-19
    listed $235,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,886
• − Management: −$1,886
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,851
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$924
• After-tax cash flow: $885/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — DeFuniak Springs

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #694
• US rank: #14475

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walton County · 70,839 people
• City population: 19,746
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,746
• Household income: $52,199
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 356.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.77%
• Current HPI: 367.046
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $225,000 ECAR
• 2026-02-19 Listed $235,000 ECAR