419 Rocky Brook Rd · Shelby, NC 28150

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1984 9,539 sqft lot Est $73k · 36% over ↓ 43% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity for investors! This property has been a rental for years, could use some TLC. Two bedrooms & 1 full bathroom upstairs. Basement has full bathroom, bedroom, laundry area & additional room for storage. All utilities are with City of Shelby. Bring all offers!

Key facts

• 9,539 sq ft lot
• Built 1984
• Listed 125 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence, site-built; One story; Zoning: R6
• Construction: Hardboard siding; Basement foundation; Built on site
• Exterior features: Concrete and paved public road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms; One basement bedroom
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on main level, one in basement)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Cooling: Other (see remarks)
• Interior features: One-level layout; Daylight, full basement with exterior entry, interior entry, walk-out and walk-up access
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 2.9% in Shelby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#52 in NC, #4,349 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Cleveland County Schools (rural): math 47% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #76 of 178 in NC (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elizabeth Elementary (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #959 of 1,410 statewide, top 68%, 569 students, 100% FRL); Shelby High (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #427 of 535 statewide, top 81%, 825 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 59% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cleveland County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 241 active listings in the ZIP; 461 units permitted in Cleveland County in 2024 (38 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cleveland County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.7% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 18% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.32%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $73,440
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
348 Grice St	0.16mi	2/1.5 (-1)	784 (-4%)	10mo	$56,000	$71	71
345 Grice St	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	857 (+5%)	12mo	$167,500	$195	66
349 Grice St	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	884 (+8%)	24mo	$165,000	$187	52
211 Maple St	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	847 (+4%)	24mo	$76,576	$90	47
421 Carolina Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	914 (+12%)	7mo	$47,000	$51	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $12,856
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $63,688
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28150

• Home prices YoY: -2.0%
• Rents YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 241
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,264 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $624/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $782

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $100,000 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 107 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 106 DOM
18. 2026-04-16
    status Active
19. 2026-03-16
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2026-02-21
    price $100,000
21. 2026-02-13
    listed $85,000 Active
22. 2023-09-25
    status Active
23. 2023-09-20
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2023-06-20
    price $150,000
25. 2023-06-05
    listed $160,000 Active
26. 2022-07-26
    status Active
27. 2022-07-18
    listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $624 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $820 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$196/yr (+$16/mo · 31.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$624
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,214
• − Management: −$1,214
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $3,112
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$747
• After-tax cash flow: $3,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700900
• Math proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,501
• Composite: 40.03/100
• National rank: #3823
• State rank: #76 of 178 in NC

Livability — Shelby

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #4349

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelby, NC
• County: Cleveland County · 83,736 people
• City population: 26,134
• Metro: Shelby, NC
• Population (ZIP): 28,142
• Household income: $55,832
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 790.0

Population outlook (Cleveland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 93,671 people
• By 2030: 91,157 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 85,519 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 79,708 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 68,317 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 57,145 · -39.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 27% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cleveland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.0) · D 32.2% · R 67.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -19.9pp · 2024: -35.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+30.6 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.92%
• Current HPI: 447.16
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.66%
• Metro: Shelby, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-42.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Relisted — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Contingent — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $100,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Listed $85,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-25 Relisted — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-20 Contingent — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-20 Price Changed $150,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-05 Listed $160,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-26 Relisted — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-18 Listed $175,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $624 · +103.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.