261 5th Ave · Callaghan, VA 24986

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 2003

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on a fenced lot of nearly one acre, this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers 1,512 square feet of comfortable living space. The property includes an additional single-wide used for storage along with two outbuildings, providing ample space for equipment, hobbies, or extra storage. Enjoy peaceful surroundings from the covered front porch or relax on the screened-in back porch overlooking the yard. Conveniently located near Sherwood Lake and Blue Bend Recreation Area, with nearby trout fishing, camping, hiking trails, and abundant outdoor recreation. A great opportunity for those seeking country living with easy access to nature and adventure.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Country living
• Two outbuildings

Tags

• FENCED LOT
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SCREENED IN BACK PORCH
• TWO OUTBUILDINGS
• ABUNDANT OUTDOOR RECREATION
• COUNTRY LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-927/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#212 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Greenbrier County Schools (town): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #31 of 55 in WV (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: White Sulphur Elementary (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #148 of 377 statewide, top 49%, 337 students, 0% FRL); Eastern Greenbrier Middle School (math 14% / reading 36%, grade F, #81 of 109 statewide, top 76%, 732 students, 0% FRL); Greenbrier East High School (math 21% / reading 51%, grade F, #39 of 110 statewide, top 36%, 1,014 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 49% district-wide (49 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 74 units permitted in Greenbrier County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Greenbrier County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $169k implies a 463% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $114,943 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.96%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $33,722
• Equity at exit: $95,539

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $106,149
• Equity at exit: $164,697

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24986

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,149 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $343/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $-77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,247

Max offer price $155,359

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $18	-5% $-29	+0% $-77	+5% $-318	+10% $-377
Rent	-10% $-168	-5% $-123	+0% $-77	+5% $-32	+10% $14
Rate	-1.0pp $8	-0.5pp $-34	base $-77	+0.5pp $-121	+1.0pp $-166

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   status Active
3. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-06
   listed $169,000 Active
5. 2001-09-24
   soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $343 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,386 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,043/yr (+$87/mo · 303.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$343
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,103
• − Management: −$1,103
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$3,985
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$956
• After-tax cash flow: $30/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenbrier County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5400390
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $37,088
• Composite: 25.34/100
• National rank: #7477
• State rank: #31 of 55 in WV

Livability — Callaghan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #6887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,082

Population outlook (Greenbrier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,394 people
• By 2030: 35,182 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 34,241 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 32,882 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 29,435 · -16.8%
• By 2100: 24,473 · -30.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 5% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greenbrier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.1) · D 28.0% · R 70.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.9pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -42.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.1 2020: R+39.6 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+24.8 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.98%
• Current HPI: 165.3067
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+463.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — GVBOR
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — GVBOR
• 2026-03-23 Pending — GVBOR
• 2026-03-06 Listed $169,000 GVBOR
• 2001-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $343 · -4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.