274 3rd St · Elizabethtown, KY 42701

$218,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily · 147 Days on market

Built 1999 2.20 ac lot Est $264k · 17% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2.2 acres with endless potential! This property features a 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offering comfortable living space surrounded by mature scenery. A major highlight is the 2,400 sq. ft. garage/workshop, complete with electric, concrete flooring, and heat provided by a wood-burning stove ideal for projects, storage, or hobby use year-round. With space to spread out and a highly functional setup, this property is perfect for those seeking privacy, room to work, or a versatile homestead. Discover the perfect blend of space, privacy, and functionality on this beautiful 2.2-acre property. Conveniently located on Dixie Hwy (31W), this property provides a quick commute to Fort Knox or Jo

Key facts

• Privacy
• Mobile home
• 2 acres

Tags

• 2 ACRES
• MOBILE HOME
• GARAGE WORKSHOP
• CONCRETE FLOORING
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $218k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-55/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Elizabethtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#131 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin County (suburban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #47 of 165 in KY (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Highland Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 501 students, 62% FRL); Bluegrass Middle School (math 22% / reading 40%, grade F, #138 of 217 statewide, top 65%, 578 students, 52% FRL); John Hardin High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #76 of 254 statewide, top 34%, 790 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 548 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 946 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hardin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $162,331 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,500
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
801 Pine Valley Ct	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,774 (+4%)	1mo	$274,190	$155	53
2533 Kensington Way	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,716 (+1%)	23mo	$310,000	$181	52
115 Hickory Hl	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,620 (-5%)	12mo	$240,000	$148	49
429 Meadowview Dr	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,627 (-4%)	24mo	$222,000	$136	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-35,201
• Equity at exit: $32,505

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-29,309
• Equity at exit: $18,849

Cash invested: $61,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42701

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 548
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,623 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $635/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,629

Max offer price $217,197

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $119	-5% $57	+0% $-5	+5% $-66	+10% $-128
Rent	-10% $-133	-5% $-69	+0% $-5	+5% $60	+10% $124
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $51	base $-5	+0.5pp $-61	+1.0pp $-119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,500
• Closing costs: $6,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
845 Pine Valley Dr Elizabethtown, KY	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1412	$1,350	$0.96	23d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   price $218,000
3. 2025-11-24
   listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $635 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,875 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,240/yr (+$103/mo · 195.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,211
• − Property taxes: −$635
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,558
• − Management: −$1,558
• − Depreciation: −$6,342
• Taxable loss: −$3,915
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$940
• After-tax cash flow: $885/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin County
• NCES district ID: 2102490
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,728
• Composite: 31.61/100
• National rank: #5945
• State rank: #47 of 165 in KY

Livability — Elizabethtown

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #6198

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hardin County · 77,611 people
• City population: 53,987
• Metro: Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY
• Population (ZIP): 53,987
• Household income: $69,619
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1663.0

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,573 people
• By 2030: 103,563 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 97,077 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 88,367 · -16.3%
• By 2075: 65,405 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 42,245 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.3) · D 34.5% · R 63.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: -20.6pp · 2024: -29.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+30.2 2012: R+20.8 2008: R+20.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.94%
• Current HPI: 228.7091
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.32%
• Metro: Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — HKARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $218,000 HKARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Listed $225,000 HKARMLS

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $635 · +24.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.