11212 Harston Wood Dr · Fort Worth, TX 76040

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,173 sqft · SingleFamily · 362 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition $141/sqft · 34% below area Est $251k · 34% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Desirable Harston Woods neighborhood with exemplary schools. Very tranquil neighborhood with lots of amenities. This home features a fireplace, built-ins and amazing kitchen which is the heart of the home. Home also has a pampered bath. Welcome home!

Key facts

• Exemplary schools
• Amazing kitchen
• Fireplace

Tags

• HARSTON WOODS NEIGHBORHOOD
• EXEMPLARY SCHOOLS
• TRANQUIL NEIGHBORHOOD
• FIREPLACE
• BUILT-INS
• AMAZING KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #193 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 85 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 362 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 362 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.34%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,794
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -34.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3515 Garrett Rd	0.56mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,144 (-2%)	14mo	$242,500	$212	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-23,102
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-21,137
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76040

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,558 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $204	-5% $147	+0% $90	+5% $33	+10% $-24
Rent	-10% $-33	-5% $29	+0% $90	+5% $152	+10% $213
Rate	-1.0pp $173	-0.5pp $132	base $90	+0.5pp $47	+1.0pp $4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11450 Trinity Blvd Euless, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1032	$2,480	$2.40	2d	98	0.59mi
3475 Valley Vista Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,095	$1.40	44d	1	0.91mi
3475 Valley Vista Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,995	$1.33	25d	1	0.91mi
3601 Valley Vista Dr Unit 3625-601 Hurst, TX	2.0	2.5	1350	$1,650	$1.22	25d	1	1.02mi
3625 Valley Vista Dr Unit 601 Hurst, TX	2.0	2.5	1350	$1,650	$1.22	25d	1	1.02mi
1601 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1061	$1,717	$1.62	2d	227	1.03mi
1304 Raider Dr Euless, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,382	$1.65	2d	16	1.10mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1321	$2,229	$1.69	8d	1	1.14mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,580	$1.46	5d	1	1.14mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,339	$1.24	25d	1	1.14mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	1.0	1.0	997	$1,415	$1.42	22d	1	1.14mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	1.0	2.0	1008	$1,267	$1.26	3d	1	1.14mi
1736 Sotogrande Blvd Unit 3121 Hurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,657	$1.29	3d	1	1.21mi
1736 Sotogrande Blvd Unit 1757 Hurst, TX	1.0	1.0	888	$785	$0.88	3d	1	1.21mi
1736 Sotogrande Blvd Unit 1769 Hurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,718	$1.38	44d	1	1.21mi
1736 Sotogrande Blvd Unit 511 Hurst, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,075	$1.02	44d	1	1.21mi
1736 Sotogrande Blvd Unit 1787 Hurst, TX	1.0	1.0	751	$900	$1.20	44d	1	1.21mi
1736 Sotogrande Blvd Unit 2121 Hurst, TX	2.0	2.0	934	$1,016	$1.09	17d	1	1.21mi
1736 Sotogrande Blvd Unit 1793 Hurst, TX	2.0	2.0	810	$1,073	$1.32	3d	1	1.21mi
1736 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	1.0	1.0	888	$777	$0.88	13d	1	1.21mi
1401 Sotogrande Blvd Euless, TX	3.0	2.0	1286	$2,089	$1.62	4d	1	1.29mi
1401 Sotogrande Blvd Euless, TX	2.0	2.0	1180	$1,711	$1.45	44d	1	1.29mi
1401 Sotogrande Blvd Euless, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,246	$1.80	25d	1	1.29mi
1401 Sotogrande Blvd Euless, TX	1.0	1.0	913	$1,397	$1.53	21d	1	1.29mi
805 Central Dr Bedford, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	795	$1,420	$1.79	44d	6	1.37mi
10150 E Hurst Blvd Hurst, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$1,849	$2.02	44d	9	1.46mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active 362 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active 361 DOM
3. 2025-10-02
   price $165,000 250-char remark

   Show marketing remark (250 chars)

   Desirable Harston Woods neighborhood with exemplary schools. Very tranquil neighborhood with lots of amenities. This home features a fireplace, built-ins and amazing kitchen which is the heart of the home. Home also has a pampered bath. Welcome home!

4. 2025-06-04
   listed $175,000 Active 250-char remark

   Show marketing remark (250 chars)

   Desirable Harston Woods neighborhood with exemplary schools. Very tranquil neighborhood with lots of amenities. This home features a fireplace, built-ins and amazing kitchen which is the heart of the home. Home also has a pampered bath. Welcome home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,495
• − Management: −$1,495
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,642
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$394
• After-tax cash flow: $1,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a desirable location. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding a small outdoor seating area — This can increase the home's appeal for both buyers and renters, especially in a desirable neighborhood like Harston Woods.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a small outdoor seating area — This can increase the home's appeal for both buyers and renters, especially in a desirable neighborhood like Harston Woods. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824060
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $56,086
• Composite: 42.12/100
• National rank: #3316
• State rank: #193 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,677
• Household income: $72,661
• Rent vs Own: 56.3% rent · 43.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1361.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: White 31% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 16% Asian 14% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.82%
• Current HPI: 271.7474
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $165,000 Zillow
• 2025-06-04 Listed $175,000 Zillow