11200 Asbury Rd · McKenney, VA 23872

$314,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,437 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2009 4.75 ac lot Est $345k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Construction 3 bedroom 2 bath on a 4.7 acre lot in the country. Eat in kitchen with plenty of cabinets an pantry. Large Master with WIC an private bath. Large 12x12 rear deck. Seller to pay $4000.00 in closing cost

Key facts

• 4.75 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 2009

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; No garage; Shared driveway
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Shingle roof; Vinyl siding; Drywall and frame construction; Facing/entry level: First level
• Construction: Built (actual year reported); Frame construction with vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Stoop; Deck; Shed(s); Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooking; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Linoleum; Partially carpeted
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub & shower in at least one bathroom (first level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating available; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Thermal windows; Storm door(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-644/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#441 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dinwiddie County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #81 of 131 in VA (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Dinwiddie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dinwiddie County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $88k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 80% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $169k; list at $315k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,653 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.17%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $344,880
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10895 Asbury Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	9mo	$300,000	$240	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $168,042
• Equity at exit: $283,732

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.64×
• Total profit: $497,405
• Equity at exit: $611,879

Cash invested: $88,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23872

• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,467 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,835/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,534

Max offer price $305,469

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,738
• Closing costs: $9,448
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $314,950 Coming Soon 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $314,950 Coming Soon 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $314,950 Coming Soon 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $314,950 Coming Soon 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $314,950 Coming Soon 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $314,950 Coming Soon 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $314,950 Coming Soon 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $314,950 Coming Soon 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $314,950 Coming Soon 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $314,950 Coming Soon 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $314,950 Coming Soon 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 693-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $314,950 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,835 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,583 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: +$748/yr (+$62/mo · 40.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,642
• − Property taxes: −$1,835
• − Insurance: −$2,372
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,368
• − Management: −$2,368
• − Depreciation: −$9,162
• Taxable loss: −$6,149
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,476
• After-tax cash flow: $832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dinwiddie County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101170
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $51,857
• Composite: 46.62/100
• National rank: #2413
• State rank: #81 of 131 in VA

Livability — McKenney

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #441
• US rank: #18946

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,511
• Population (ZIP): 2,511

Population outlook (Dinwiddie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,876 people
• By 2030: 27,480 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 26,285 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 24,617 · -11.7%
• By 2075: 21,647 · -22.3%
• By 2100: 18,485 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 35% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Scandinavian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Korean 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Dinwiddie

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.1% · R 61.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+12.4 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 80.66%
• Current HPI: 295.8892
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+319.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Coming Soon $314,950 CVRMLS
• 2009-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $169,000 Public Records
• 2009-08-14 Sold (MLS) $169,000 CVRMLS
• 2009-08-14 Sold (MLS) $169,000 CVRMLS
• 2009-02-25 Listed $174,500 CVRMLS
• 2009-02-25 Listed $174,500 CVRMLS
• 2008-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $169,000 Public Records
• 2008-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,835 · +25.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.