4010 16th St NE · Holt, AL 35404

$284,900

6 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,590 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1963 0.63 ac lot $110/sqft · 47% below area Est $535k · 47% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent opportunity featuring two duplex units plus a main home. Duplex #1 offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bath (~550 sqft) with a full kitchen and double-pane windows, it was renting for $1,000/month. Duplex #2 includes 1 bedroom, 1 bath (~350–400 sqft) with a kitchen setup, rented at $600/month. The main house features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, a sunroom, solid pine cabinets, pantry, ample storage, and a large laundry room. Recent updates include new plumbing in the crawlspace and updated double-pane windows. Property also includes two outbuildings (12x20 and 10x20), providing additional storage or flexible use. This is a great opportunity to own a versatile property with multiple living spaces, existing rental income, recent updates, and room for added functionality or future use.

Key facts

• Two duplex units
• Full kitchen
• Solid oak cabinets

Tags

• TWO DUPLEX UNITS
• FULL KITCHEN
• DOUBLE-PANE WINDOWS
• SUNROOM
• SOLID OAK CABINETS
• AMPLE STORAGE

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $284,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$534,936) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (32.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (32.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#317 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,915/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 1531% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,516 (32.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $534,936
• List price: $284,900
• Delta: -46.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-49,147
• Equity at exit: $42,480

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-23,033
• Equity at exit: $24,633

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35404

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,915 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $772/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,123

Max offer price $255,906

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3	-5% $-83	+0% $-164	+5% $-245	+10% $-325
Rent	-10% $-315	-5% $-240	+0% $-164	+5% $-88	+10% $-13
Rate	-1.0pp $-21	-0.5pp $-92	base $-164	+0.5pp $-238	+1.0pp $-313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $284,900 Pending 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $284,900 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $284,900 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $284,900 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $284,900 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $284,900 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-05-04
   price $284,900 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Excellent opportunity featuring two duplex units plus a main home. Duplex #1 offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bath (~550 sqft) with a full kitchen and double-pane windows, it was renting for $1,000/month. Duplex #2 includes 1 bedroom, 1 bath (~350–400 sqft) with a kitchen setup, rented at $600/month. The main house features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, a sunroom, solid pine cabinets, pantry, ample storage, and a large laundry room. Recent updates include new plumbing in the crawlspace and updated double-pane windows. Property also includes two outbuildings (12x20 and 10x20), providing additional storage or flexible use. This is a great opportunity to own a versatile property with multiple living spaces, existing rental income, recent updates, and room for added functionality or future use.

8. 2026-04-17
   listed $299,900 Active 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Excellent opportunity featuring two duplex units plus a main home. Duplex #1 offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bath (~550 sqft) with a full kitchen and double-pane windows, it was renting for $1,000/month. Duplex #2 includes 1 bedroom, 1 bath (~350–400 sqft) with a kitchen setup, rented at $600/month. The main house features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, a sunroom, solid pine cabinets, pantry, ample storage, and a large laundry room. Recent updates include new plumbing in the crawlspace and updated double-pane windows. Property also includes two outbuildings (12x20 and 10x20), providing additional storage or flexible use. This is a great opportunity to own a versatile property with multiple living spaces, existing rental income, recent updates, and room for added functionality or future use.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $772 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,168 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$396/yr (+$33/mo · 51.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$772
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,839
• − Management: −$1,839
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable loss: −$7,139
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,713
• After-tax cash flow: $-256/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Holt

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #19673

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holt, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 23,553
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 22,445
• Household income: $48,932
• Rent vs Own: 56.5% rent · 43.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1531.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 46% White 44% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.00%
• Current HPI: 170.026
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.81%
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $284,900 WAMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $299,900 WAMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $772 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.