21915 Messina Springs Dr · Houston, TX 77447

$322,990

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,943 sqft · SingleFamily · 131 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $166/sqft · at area comps Est $336k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Bailey floor plan offers 1,882 square feet of well-designed living space with 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This spacious single-story layout is ideal for growing families, combining open-concept living with thoughtful functionality throughout. The heart of the home features a modern kitchen that flows seamlessly into the dining and family room, creating an inviting atmosphere for daily living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a generous island, ample counter space, and abundant cabinetry, making it as practical as it is stylish. The private owner's suite is located at the back of the home, offering a relaxing retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and ensuite bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower. Four additional bedrooms are positioned toward the front, providing flexibility for family, guests, or a home office setup. A dedicated laundry room and plentiful storage spaces add everyday convenience, while the open flow of the living areas enhances comfort and connection. Designed with modern families in mind, the Bailey floor plan delivers a perfect blend of spaciousness, efficiency, and style- offering everything you need to feel right at home in a smart, functional layout.

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Generous island
• Abundant cabinetry

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• GENEROUS ISLAND
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $323k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-436/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1791 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($284k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,943 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,667
• List price: $322,990
• Delta: -3.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21907 Vernazza Bend Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,750 (-10%)	3mo	$310,740	$178	73
22002 Corsica View Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,081 (+7%)	1mo	$289,900	$139	71
21707 Piazza Maggiore Ln	0.37mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,042 (+5%)	1mo	$300,000	$147	67
22034 Vernazza Bend Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,173 (+12%)	3mo	$367,740	$169	62
21727 Piazza Maggiore Ln	0.35mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,182 (+12%)	2mo	$315,740	$145	54
19059 Cetara Villa Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,128 (+10%)	2mo	$314,990	$148	54
21927 Vernazza Bend Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,796 (-8%)	4mo	$319,990	$178	52
22203 Scarlino Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,020 (+4%)	4mo	$297,400	$147	52
21931 Valentine Vines Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,042 (+5%)	4mo	$292,000	$143	48
21610 Nicosia Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,168 (+12%)	3mo	$329,990	$152	40
21614 Nicosia Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,211 (+14%)	4mo	$359,990	$163	36
19934 Sienna Green Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,200 (+13%)	4mo	$307,900	$140	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-62,758
• Equity at exit: $48,159

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-88,939
• Equity at exit: $27,926

Cash invested: $90,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1791
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,779 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,694
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$404 /mo · $4,845/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$584
• Net cashflow: $-36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,825

Max offer price $317,728

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $75	+0% $-36	+5% $-148	+10% $-260
Rent	-10% $-256	-5% $-146	+0% $-36	+5% $73	+10% $183
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $46	base $-36	+0.5pp $-120	+1.0pp $-205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,748
• Closing costs: $9,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22222 Opa Glen Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	3.0	2609	$2,850	$1.09	45d	1	0.55mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$3,070	$1.50	0d	1	1.34mi
22023 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$1,901	$1.19	0d	1	1.39mi
20718 Round Key Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2133	$1,806	$0.85	0d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $322,990 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $322,990 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $322,990 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $322,990 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $322,990 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $322,990 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $322,990 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $322,990 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $322,990 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $322,990 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $322,990 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $322,990 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $322,990 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $322,990 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-02-25
    price $322,990 1226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1226 chars)

    The Bailey floor plan offers 1,882 square feet of well-designed living space with 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This spacious single-story layout is ideal for growing families, combining open-concept living with thoughtful functionality throughout. The heart of the home features a modern kitchen that flows seamlessly into the dining and family room, creating an inviting atmosphere for daily living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a generous island, ample counter space, and abundant cabinetry, making it as practical as it is stylish. The private owner's suite is located at the back of the home, offering a relaxing retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and ensuite bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower. Four additional bedrooms are positioned toward the front, providing flexibility for family, guests, or a home office setup. A dedicated laundry room and plentiful storage spaces add everyday convenience, while the open flow of the living areas enhances comfort and connection. Designed with modern families in mind, the Bailey floor plan delivers a perfect blend of spaciousness, efficiency, and style- offering everything you need to feel right at home in a smart, functional layout.

16. 2026-02-10
    listed $323,990 Active 1226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1226 chars)

    The Bailey floor plan offers 1,882 square feet of well-designed living space with 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. This spacious single-story layout is ideal for growing families, combining open-concept living with thoughtful functionality throughout. The heart of the home features a modern kitchen that flows seamlessly into the dining and family room, creating an inviting atmosphere for daily living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a generous island, ample counter space, and abundant cabinetry, making it as practical as it is stylish. The private owner's suite is located at the back of the home, offering a relaxing retreat complete with a large walk-in closet and ensuite bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower. Four additional bedrooms are positioned toward the front, providing flexibility for family, guests, or a home office setup. A dedicated laundry room and plentiful storage spaces add everyday convenience, while the open flow of the living areas enhances comfort and connection. Designed with modern families in mind, the Bailey floor plan delivers a perfect blend of spaciousness, efficiency, and style- offering everything you need to feel right at home in a smart, functional layout.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,092
• − Property taxes: −$4,845
• − Insurance: −$1,615
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,668
• − Management: −$2,668
• − Depreciation: −$9,396
• Taxable loss: −$5,932
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,424
• After-tax cash flow: $987/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern floor plan and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of functionality and style, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls and updating the kitchen backsplash — Enhances the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Improves the overall look and feel of the home, making it more appealing to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls and updating the kitchen backsplash — Enhances the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Improves the overall look and feel of the home, making it more appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $322,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-10 Listed $323,990 Zillow