15936 Blass Valley Dr · Grangerland, TX 77302

$286,410

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,642 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,700 sqft lot $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ready for move-in! Welcome to Mavera, thoughtfully designed Pierce for a plan by Centex Homes. This two-story home offers an open and functional layout with a kitchen that flows seamlessly into the great room and dining area. A first-floor powder bath adds convenience for guests. Upstairs, you’ll find four bedrooms, including a private owner's suite for comfort and relaxation. Bathrooms are as scented with chrome fixtures and engineered marble vanities. Complete with a two-car garage attached to the home, this home combines modern luxury with timeless style.

Key facts

• 5,700 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Inframark; Annual association fee; Community pool; Curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2026); Brick and wood siding exterior; Faces east; Slab foundation; Has a view
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio and deck; Fence (back yard); Sprinkler/irrigation; Waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Oven
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanities; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: HVAC energy-efficient system

🏗️ New construction. The $286,410 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $283,360.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $286k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-114 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 547 students, 81% FRL); Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 34% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $243,550 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.73%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,360
• List price: $286,410
• Delta: 1.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16153 Sepia Manor St	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,642 (0%)	3mo	$264,810	$161	94
15980 Blass Valley Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,777 (+8%)	2mo	$274,790	$155	79
14985 Rustic Moon Rd	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,689 (+3%)	1mo	$264,050	$156	76
15965 Blass Valley Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-8%)	2mo	$273,480	$181	72
15018 English Rose Rd	0.16mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+13%)	2mo	$276,730	$150	70
15985 Blass Valley Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+13%)	1mo	$287,320	$155	70
16280 Sun View Ln	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,550 (-6%)	2mo	$200,000	$129	64
15039 Rustic Moon Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,496 (-9%)	1mo	$259,790	$174	64
15023 Rustic Moon Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,496 (-9%)	0mo	$287,340	$192	64
16702 Sterling Cliff St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,571 (-4%)	3mo	$281,690	$179	63
14989 Rustic Moon Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,506 (-8%)	2mo	$259,710	$172	62
16686 Sterling Cliff St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (-14%)	2mo	$242,090	$172	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-52,366
• Equity at exit: $42,250

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-51,571
• Equity at exit: $24,500

Cash invested: $79,341 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,436 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,486
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$354 /mo · $4,250/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,580

Max offer price $266,836

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,840
• Closing costs: $8,501
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	43d	1	0.65mi
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	24d	1	0.67mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 570-char remark
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $286,410 Active 570-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,226
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,873
• − Property taxes: −$4,250
• − Insurance: −$1,417
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,338
• − Management: −$2,338
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$8,243
• Taxable loss: −$6,193
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,486
• After-tax cash flow: $116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with a modern and functional layout. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates and improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Replacing dated flooring with something more modern can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen with new appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Integrating smart home technology can increase the home's appeal and marketability.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Replacing dated flooring with something more modern can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen with new appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Integrating smart home technology can increase the home's appeal and marketability. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $286,410 HARMLS