10258 W Zimmerman St · Marana, AZ 85653

$319,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,562 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 2023 4,661 sqft lot $205/sqft · 15% below area Est $377k · 15% under $83/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Major Price Reduction !! Move-in ready. Energy Star certified 2023 Festival plan with 4 bedroom & 2 full baths. The kitchen is spacious and bright with white 36'' cabinets, kitchen island, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances and light grey ceramic tile floors. The kitchen opens to an adjacent dining area and spacious living room. The 4 bedrooms have ceiling fans and are carpeted. Separate laundry closet with matching washer and electric dryer (w/existing gas connection) included. The convenient split floor plan 3/1 encourages privacy and adds comfort. The interior has been freshly painted in neutral colors. The primary bedroom & bath are very spacious. There is a dual sink vanity and a large walk-in closet too.

Key facts

• 4,661 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2023

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-341 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.3% in Marana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#67 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marjorie W Estes Elementary School (math 20% / reading 26%, grade F, #673 of 1,109 statewide, top 61%, 570 students, 49% FRL); Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,684 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.56%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $376,667
• List price: $319,900
• Delta: -15.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10448 W Thetford Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-2%)	1mo	$357,000	$232	69
12717 N Fire Brand St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,562 (0%)	0mo	$372,830	$239	64
12693 N Fire Brand St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,562 (0%)	1mo	$368,000	$236	63
10342 W Granderson St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,327 (-15%)	0mo	$347,000	$261	60
10271 W Harper St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,425 (-9%)	1mo	$346,940	$243	60
10246 W Sumullen St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,425 (-9%)	1mo	$339,940	$239	59
10238 W Sumullen St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,425 (-9%)	1mo	$340,940	$239	59
12540 N Krista Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,383 (-12%)	2mo	$345,000	$249	56
10647 W Goulding Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,465 (-6%)	1mo	$310,000	$212	54
12711 N Fire Brand St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,480 (-5%)	1mo	$362,440	$245	54
10436 W Thetford Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,330 (-15%)	2mo	$344,900	$259	47
10412 W Guildford Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,330 (-15%)	1mo	$343,900	$259	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-72,476
• Equity at exit: $47,698

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-86,681
• Equity at exit: $27,659

Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85653

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,357 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$309 /mo · $3,703/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,788

Max offer price $259,732

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-160	-5% $-250	+0% $-341	+5% $-431	+10% $-522
Rent	-10% $-527	-5% $-434	+0% $-341	+5% $-248	+10% $-154
Rate	-1.0pp $-179	-0.5pp $-259	base $-341	+0.5pp $-423	+1.0pp $-508

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,975
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10315 W Robertson St Marana, AZ	4.0	3.0	2027	$2,145	$1.06	45d	1	0.10mi
12486 N Reeves Pl Marana, AZ	4.0	3.0	2027	$2,400	$1.18	18d	1	0.22mi
10518 W Harrigan Dr Marana, AZ	3.0	2.0	1262	$2,000	$1.58	16d	1	0.34mi
10294 W Sumullen St Marana, AZ	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,675	$1.29	45d	1	0.36mi
10253 W Sumullen St Marana, AZ	5.0	2.5	2114	$2,295	$1.09	5d	1	0.39mi
10300 W Tangerine Rd Marana, AZ	3.0	2.0	1678	$2,299	$1.37	25d	1	0.48mi
10679 W Golson Dr Marana, AZ	4.0	3.0	2220	$2,350	$1.06	16d	1	0.60mi
12742 N Gibbs Ave Marana, AZ	4.0	3.0	2027	$2,075	$1.02	45d	1	0.64mi
10677 W Dickerson Dr Marana, AZ	3.0	2.0	1327	$1,920	$1.45	5d	1	0.64mi
10667 W Filbert St Marana, AZ	4.0	3.0	2027	$2,057	$1.01	45d	1	0.65mi
10703 W Embrey Dr Marana, AZ	4.0	3.0	2027	$2,300	$1.13	45d	1	0.67mi
10713 W Dickerson Dr Marana, AZ	3.0	2.0	1327	$1,940	$1.46	25d	1	0.68mi
12474 N Appling Ave Marana, AZ	3.0	2.0	2183	$2,500	$1.15	5d	1	0.72mi
10800 W Embrey Dr Marana, AZ	4.0	3.0	2027	$2,300	$1.13	25d	1	0.78mi
12115 N Candywine Dr Marana, AZ	3.0	2.0	1879	$2,250	$1.20	17d	1	0.97mi
12115 N Candywine Dr Marana, AZ	3.0	2.0	1897	$2,250	$1.19	5d	1	0.97mi
12232 N Sora Pl Marana, AZ	3.0	2.0	1601	$1,750	$1.09	46d	1	1.05mi
11071 W Willow Field Dr Marana, AZ	4.0	2.0	1789	$1,796	$1.00	13d	1	1.05mi
12500 N Cottonseed Ln Marana, AZ	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,750	$1.10	45d	1	1.33mi
11320 W Cotton Bale Ln Marana, AZ	4.0	2.0	1727	$2,480	$1.44	3d	1	1.34mi
11379 W Burning Sage St Marana, AZ	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,795	$1.42	25d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr
• Likely covers: gaselectric

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,900 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,900 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,900 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,900 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,900 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,900 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,900 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $319,900 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,900 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $319,900 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $319,900 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $319,900 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,900 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,900 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,900 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,900 Active 130 DOM
17. 2026-04-19
    price $329,900 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Major Price Reduction !! Move-in ready. Energy Star certified 2023 Festival plan with 4 bedroom & 2 full baths. The kitchen is spacious and bright with white 36'' cabinets, kitchen island, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances and light grey ceramic tile floors. The kitchen opens to an adjacent dining area and spacious living room. The 4 bedrooms have ceiling fans and are carpeted. Separate laundry closet with matching washer and electric dryer (w/existing gas connection) included. The convenient split floor plan 3/1 encourages privacy and adds comfort. The interior has been freshly painted in neutral colors. The primary bedroom & bath are very spacious. There is a dual sink vanity and a large walk-in closet too.

18. 2026-01-21
    listed $359,000 Active 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Major Price Reduction !! Move-in ready. Energy Star certified 2023 Festival plan with 4 bedroom & 2 full baths. The kitchen is spacious and bright with white 36'' cabinets, kitchen island, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances and light grey ceramic tile floors. The kitchen opens to an adjacent dining area and spacious living room. The 4 bedrooms have ceiling fans and are carpeted. Separate laundry closet with matching washer and electric dryer (w/existing gas connection) included. The convenient split floor plan 3/1 encourages privacy and adds comfort. The interior has been freshly painted in neutral colors. The primary bedroom & bath are very spacious. There is a dual sink vanity and a large walk-in closet too.

19. 2025-12-27
    historical
20. 2025-11-24
    price $359,000
21. 2025-10-16
    price $345,000
22. 2025-09-17
    price $367,500
23. 2025-08-24
    listed $369,900 Active
24. 2024-06-27
    historical $1,950
25. 2024-05-30
    listed $1,950
26. 2023-08-11
    soldstatus $349,110 Closed
27. 2023-06-15
    status Pending
28. 2023-05-23
    price $349,110
29. 2023-04-21
    price $353,610
30. 2023-01-25
    listed $366,110 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,703 · $309/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,703 · $309/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$3,703
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,263
• − Management: −$2,263
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable loss: −$9,768
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,344
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Marana

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #11113

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marana, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 39,625
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,574
• Household income: $86,154
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.29%
• Current HPI: 249.3403
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-9.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $329,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-21 Listed $359,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-27 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $359,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $345,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $367,500 MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-24 Listed $369,900 MLSSAZ
• 2024-06-27 Rental Removed $1,950 TARMLS
• 2024-05-30 Listed for Rent $1,950 TARMLS
• 2023-08-11 Sold (MLS) $349,110 MLSSAZ
• 2023-06-15 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2023-05-23 Price Changed $349,110 MLSSAZ
• 2023-04-21 Price Changed $353,610 MLSSAZ
• 2023-01-25 Listed $366,110 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+14.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,703 · +14.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.