1826 Sandy Trail Ln · Rosenberg, TX 77469

$324,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,358 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 7,801 sqft lot $138/sqft · 7% below area Est $349k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 7,801 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (10.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $313k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cora Thomas El (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 601 students, 58% FRL); Reading J H (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B+, #134 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 1,588 students, 28% FRL); George Ranch H S (math 52% / reading 76%, grade B-, #224 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 2,511 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1345 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 13447% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.48%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,464
• List price: $324,999
• Delta: -7.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6806 Ashland Terrace Ln	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,410 (+2%)	5mo	$324,000	$134	72
6738 Haven Forest Ln	0.32mi	4/2.5	2,278 (-3%)	6mo	$288,000	$126	72
1618 Goose Island Ln	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,285 (-3%)	2mo	$319,000	$140	68
1719 Barrows Ln	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,547 (+8%)	5mo	$349,990	$137	68
7319 Creekside Terrace Ln	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,393 (+2%)	2mo	$359,900	$150	67
2039 Plum Rose Ln	0.36mi	4/2.0	2,124 (-10%)	4mo	$309,900	$146	64
1830 Turtle Bluff Ln	0.31mi	4/2.0	2,067 (-12%)	10mo	$295,000	$143	56
6811 Ashland Terrace Ln	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,051 (-13%)	1mo	$295,000	$144	54
1802 Golden Ale Ct	0.36mi	4/2.0	2,061 (-13%)	11mo	$319,900	$155	53
1803 Welsh Canyon Ct	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,147 (-9%)	7mo	$370,000	$172	49
6727 Trinity Trail Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,032 (-14%)	3mo	$299,900	$148	46
1727 Brownwood Ridge Ct	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,152 (-9%)	4mo	$315,000	$146	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-73,512
• Equity at exit: $48,458

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-113,688
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77469

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1345
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,135 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$825 /mo · $9,895/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$658
• Net cashflow: $-188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,373

Max offer price $291,809

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4	-5% $-96	+0% $-188	+5% $-280	+10% $-372
Rent	-10% $-436	-5% $-312	+0% $-188	+5% $-64	+10% $60
Rate	-1.0pp $-24	-0.5pp $-105	base $-188	+0.5pp $-272	+1.0pp $-358

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2302 Grande Laurel Ct Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	2832	$2,975	$1.05	20d	1	0.92mi
2302 Grande Laurel Ct Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	2832	$2,975	$1.05	0d	1	0.92mi
615 Arbor Green Ln Rosenberg, TX	4.0	3.0	2564	$3,800	$1.48	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $324,999 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $324,999 Active 150 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $324,999 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $324,999 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $324,999 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $324,999 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $324,999 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-05-16
   price $2,349
9. 2026-05-08
   listed $2,399
10. 2026-05-01
    historical $2,399
11. 2026-04-30
    listed $2,399
12. 2026-02-12
    price $324,999
13. 2026-01-28
    price $330,999
14. 2026-01-20
    price $342,999
15. 2026-01-08
    listed $349,999 Active
16. 2025-12-24
    historical $2,295
17. 2025-12-24
    historical
18. 2025-09-26
    listed $2,295
19. 2025-09-23
    listed $379,990 Active
20. 2022-03-22
    soldstatus Sold
21. 2022-02-14
    status Pending
22. 2022-01-26
    price $344,990
23. 2022-01-25
    listed $341,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,895 · $825/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,895 · $825/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,617
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$9,895
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,009
• − Management: −$3,009
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$7,581
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,820
• After-tax cash flow: $-435/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a fresh paint job and modern appliances. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Replace flooring in bedrooms — Hardwood floors in living areas contrast with carpeted bedrooms, consider updating for a more uniform look

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Replace flooring in bedrooms — Hardwood floors in living areas contrast with carpeted bedrooms, consider updating for a more uniform look ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,826
• Household income: $102,125
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1292.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 29% White 27% Black 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.66%
• Current HPI: 234.9892
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $2,349 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed for Rent $2,399 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Rental Removed $2,399 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed for Rent $2,399 HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $324,999 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $330,999 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $342,999 HARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $349,999 HARMLS
• 2025-12-24 Rental Removed $2,295 HARMLS
• 2025-12-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed for Rent $2,295 HARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Listed $379,990 HARMLS
• 2022-03-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-02-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-01-26 Price Changed $344,990 HARMLS
• 2022-01-25 Listed $341,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+81.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,895 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.