40 Pine Rd · Sanbornville, NH 03830

$154,900

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 735 sqft · Condo · 29 Days on market

Built 2008 Good condition $79/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Lake Forest Resort, one of Wakefield’s best kept secrets, nestled along the stunning shoreline of Great East Lake. LFR is a seasonal, mixed use condominium campground designed for residents age 50+, golf lovers, and outdoor enthusiasts. Spanning 100 wooded acres, the community offers spacious, private sites along with a full calendar of recreational and social activities for adults. 40 Pine Road features a beautifully maintained park model home with an inviting interior that includes vaulted ceilings, abundant natural light, eat in kitchen, office area, two bathrooms, a bedroom, loft, central A/C, and a versatile multipurpose room that adds three additional rooms of flexibl

Key facts

• 100 wooded acres
• Eat in kitchen
• Park model home

Tags

• 100 WOODED ACRES
• PRIVATE SITES
• PARK MODEL HOME
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• EAT IN KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seasonal property; Sale includes furnishings; Located in Lake Forest RV Resort, Inc. development; Roads: association/private gravel road, privately maintained, seasonal
• HOA & community: Condo fees apply (annual fee of 950); Fee includes plowing, sewer, trash, water, condo association services; Association amenities: clubhouse, master insurance, boat launch, day dock, common acreage, golf/golf course access, snow removal, trash removal, coin laundry

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; Gravel driveway
• Utilities: Community and private water available; Community and private sewer; Electric service (other); Cable internet available
• Home design: Manufactured / mobile home; tiny home style; Existing construction; Verde exterior color; Shingle roof; Surveyed; Year built 2008
• Construction: Wood frame construction
• Exterior features: Condo development with deed restrictions; Lake access (cross a street to access; indirect, not adjoining; seasonal; shared-private); Near golf course; Level lot; Recreational setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Gas range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One 3/4 bathroom on main level; One half bathroom on main level
• Heating & cooling: Propane forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Crawl space basement; Loft (on 2nd level); Family room; Dining room; Eat-in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $155k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.3% in Sanbornville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#52 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Wakefield School District (rural): math 22% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #94 of 98 in NH (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 357 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carroll County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $152,576 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.29%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-5,935
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $19,721
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03830

• Home prices YoY: -5.9%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,834 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,324/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$79
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,455

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $407	-5% $353	+0% $300	+5% $246	+10% $193
Rent	-10% $155	-5% $227	+0% $300	+5% $372	+10% $445
Rate	-1.0pp $378	-0.5pp $339	base $300	+0.5pp $260	+1.0pp $219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $79 · $948/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $154,900 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $154,900 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $154,900 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $154,900 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $154,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,900 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    listed $154,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$2,324
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,761
• − Management: −$1,761
• − HOA: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable income: $1,262
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$303
• After-tax cash flow: $3,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This park model home at Lake Forest Resort is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to modernize the kitchen and bathroom. The property's location and amenities make it a great investment opportunity.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate kitchen countertops — dated and in need of updating

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would increase both resale and rental value
• Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in need of updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen countertops · dated and in need of updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$9,000–45,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wakefield School District
• NCES district ID: 3306780
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $49,547
• Composite: 20.76/100
• National rank: #8516
• State rank: #94 of 98 in NH

Livability — Sanbornville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #9100

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,733

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,072 people
• By 2030: 43,158 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 38,044 · -15.6%
• By 2050: 33,087 · -26.6%
• By 2075: 25,661 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 18,684 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 8% Slovak 6% Lithuanian 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.8% · R 50.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -1.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.7 2020: D+1.5 2016: R+5.7 2012: R+0.8 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.17%
• Current HPI: 402.1599
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $154,900 PrimeMLS