4444 E Avenue R Spc 35 Unit . · Palmdale, CA 93552

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · Manufactured · 69 Days on market

Built 2001 Est $110k · 41% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BACK TO THE MARKET!!! Don't miss this opportunity! One of the most desirable manufactured homes in Palmdale, offering an excellent value in the sought-after Grecian Isle Mobile Home Park. Built in 2001, this home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a dedicated laundry room. Recently painted inside and out, it offers central A/C and heating, laminate flooring throughout, and a spacious front porch. The extended driveway awning accommodates up to three vehicles. Enjoy a large, low-maintenance yard finished with golden gravel--ideal for water conservation. Conveniently located within walking distance to grocery stores, hardware stores, schools, pharmacy, Hispanic market, restaurants, coffee

Key facts

• Low-maintenance yard
• Laminate flooring
• Spacious front porch

Tags

• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• CENTRAL A/C AND HEATING
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• SPACIOUS FRONT PORCH
• EXTENDED DRIVEWAY AWNING
• LOW-MAINTENANCE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 4.5% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Palmdale Elementary (suburban): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #1,147 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 1→2/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.87%
• DSCR: 2.68
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,200
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4444 E Avenue R #84	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-1%)	18mo	$109,500	$95	77
4444 E Ave R #71	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,059 (-9%)	24mo	$185,000	$175	64
37311 47th #208	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+3%)	8mo	$80,000	$67	55
37311 E 47th St Spc 17	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,160 (0%)	19mo	$90,000	$78	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $62,152
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.84×
• Total profit: $166,622
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93552

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,089 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$649
• Net cashflow: $1,369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4206 East Avenue Q-14 Unit Q14 Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1150	$2,850	$2.48	1d	1	0.31mi
37526 Rose St Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1361	$3,150	$2.31	1d	1	0.55mi
37734 Tackstem St Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.0	1488	$2,950	$1.98	1d	1	1.03mi
3559 E Avenue R14 Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.5	1483	$2,895	$1.95	1d	1	1.10mi
37347 Waterman Ave Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1383	$3,350	$2.42	1d	1	1.12mi
38532 33rd St E Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.0	1157	$2,646	$2.29	1d	1	1.32mi
38300 30th St E Palmdale, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	796	$2,100	$2.64	1d	7	1.32mi
37707 57th St E Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.5	1454	$2,700	$1.86	1d	1	1.33mi
37210 Sabal Ave Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1198	$2,395	$2.00	1d	1	1.33mi
38527 Pond Ave Palmdale, CA	4.0	2.0	1300	$3,200	$2.46	1d	1	1.39mi
37835 58th St E Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,800	$2.27	1d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-03-31
   historical
2. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-11
   status Active
4. 2026-03-11
   status Active
5. 2026-03-08
   status Pending Sale
6. 2026-02-09
   status Pending
7. 2026-01-19
   price $155,000
8. 2026-01-19
   price $155,000
9. 2025-12-22
   listed $165,000 Active
10. 2025-12-22
    listed $165,000 Active
11. 2020-09-01
    status Pending Sale
12. 2020-08-12
    price $115,000
13. 2020-08-04
    historical
14. 2020-01-16
    status Active
15. 2020-01-13
    status Active
16. 2019-12-13
    status Pending
17. 2019-12-13
    status Pending Sale
18. 2019-10-21
    listed $89,900 Active
19. 2019-10-20
    listed $89,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 1 d/yr ≥100°F today · 2 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 29 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,966
• − Management: −$2,966
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $14,850
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,564
• After-tax cash flow: $12,870/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palmdale Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0629580
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,652
• Composite: 25.34/100
• National rank: #12888
• State rank: #1147 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Palmdale

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #861
• US rank: #23501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmdale, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 177,644
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,639
• Household income: $85,954
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 747.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 21% Black 13% White 11% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 55% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.00%
• Current HPI: 394.1607
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+72.4% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-03-30 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-03-11 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-03-11 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2026-03-08 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-02-09 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $155,000 AVMLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $155,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $165,000 AVMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $165,000 CRMLS
• 2020-09-01 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-08-12 Price Changed $115,000 CRMLS
• 2020-08-04 Listing Removed — AVMLS
• 2020-01-16 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2020-01-13 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2019-12-13 Pending — AVMLS
• 2019-12-13 Pending — CRMLS
• 2019-10-21 Listed $89,900 AVMLS
• 2019-10-20 Listed $89,900 CRMLS