3909 81st Ave N · Brooklyn Park, MN
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $888 – $1,650
Heat risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 100°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 14 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +12.3/15.0
- Cash flow +4.3/30.0
- Schools +4.2/10.0
- Rent growth +4.1/5.0
- Livability +4.0/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- 1% rule +0.0/10.0
- DSCR +0.0/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$325,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Delightful single-owner split entry home has 3 large bedrooms with hardwood floors on upper level! This smoke-free & pet-free home has a large family room with wood burning fireplace & new carpet in lower level. Rough-in for additional bath & 4th bedroom down. Kitchen features new dishwasher, hood & gas range. Central foyer leads to beautiful LR with south facing sliding doors that open to a large deck with steps to fenced back yard. Low maintenance exterior & large 2-car attached garage.
Key facts
- 0.25 acre lot
- 2 garage spots
- Built 1971
Property features AI
Exterior
- Parking: Attached 2-car garage
- Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
- Home design: Residential split-entry (bi-level) home; Main entry level plus lower level
- Construction: Block construction; Block foundation
- Exterior features: Stone and vinyl exterior; Chain link fencing; Lot approximately 0.25 acre (80 x 135)
Interior
- Kitchen: Kitchen with center island and window; Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal
- Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (three on main level; one on lower level)
- Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (one on upper level/main, one in full basement)
- Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
- Interior features: Finished full basement with egress windows; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
- Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (hookup present); Water softener (owned)
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-865 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (47.0% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (50.7% below list).
- Recommended offer: $160k (50.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 81/100 on livability (#50 in MN, #1,308 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D, amenities F.
- Osseo Public School District (suburban): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #129 of 301 in MN (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $192k; list at $325k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.49% ✗
- Cap rate
- 3.10%
- Cash-on-cash
- -11.41%
- DSCR
- 0.49
- GRM
- 16.9
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $364,001
- List price
- $325,000
- Delta
- -10.71%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 5 within 1.0 mi
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 6.26% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -34.0%
- Equity multiple
- -0.13×
- Total profit
- $-102,403
- Equity at exit
- $48,459
- IRR
- -29.1%
- Equity multiple
- -0.50×
- Total profit
- $-136,537
- Equity at exit
- $28,100
Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 46 Balanced
- State Minnesota
- 46 Balanced · D+2
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 55443
- Rents YoY
- 6.3%
- Active inventory
- 169
- Price-to-rent
- 16.9×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,601 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,704
- Tax from tax record
- −$290 /mo · $3,483/yr
- Insurance
- −$135
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$336
- Net cashflow
- $-865
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-681 | -5% $-773 | +0% $-865 | +5% $-957 | +10% $-1,049 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-992 | -5% $-929 | +0% $-865 | +5% $-802 | +10% $-739 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-702 | -0.5pp $-783 | base $-865 | +0.5pp $-950 | +1.0pp $-1,035 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $81,250
- Closing costs
- $9,750
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 14 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8447 Regent Ave N Minneapolis, MN | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1000 | $1,555 | $1.55 | 2d | 5 | 0.88mi |
| 5528 Brookdale Dr N Minneapolis, MN | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1400 | $2,195 | $1.57 | 44d | 1 | 1.09mi |
| 5521 Brookdale Dr N Brooklyn Park, MN | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0 | 855 | $1,525 | $1.78 | 2d | 10 | 1.13mi |
| 7449 Imperial Dr N Minneapolis, MN | 3.0 | 1.0 | 775 | $1,579 | $2.04 | 44d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 8304 Zane Ave N Unit North-312 Minneapolis, MN | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1000 | $1,195 | $1.20 | 5d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 8104 Zane Ave N Minneapolis, MN | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,395 | $1.55 | 18d | 3 | 1.15mi |
| 8308 Zane Ave N Unit North-106 Brooklyn Park, MN | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1000 | $1,195 | $1.20 | 5d | 1 | 1.16mi |
| 8300 Zane Ave N Minneapolis, MN | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–1.5 | 868 | $1,195 | $1.38 | 5d | 5 | 1.19mi |
| 7870 Zane Ave N Minneapolis, MN | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0 | 760 | $1,375 | $1.81 | 2d | 12 | 1.19mi |
| 8316 Zane Ave N Unit NORTH-207 Brooklyn Park, MN | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1370 | $1,695 | $1.24 | 44d | 1 | 1.20mi |
| 8217 Zane Ct N Unit 8221 Minneapolis, MN | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $1,575 | $1.57 | 3d | 1 | 1.23mi |
| 7021 Brooklyn Blvd Unit 7021-216 Brooklyn Center, MN | 2.0 | 1.0 | 825 | $1,399 | $1.70 | 44d | 1 | 1.39mi |
| 8425 Brunswick Ave N Minneapolis, MN | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1032 | $1,850 | $1.79 | 44d | 1 | 1.49mi |
| 5840 73rd Ave N Minneapolis, MN | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0 | 1031 | $1,650 | $1.60 | 15d | 1 | 1.50mi |
Listing history 14 events
-
2026-06-08status $325,000 Pending 12 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $325,000 Contingent - Inspection 12 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $325,000 Contingent - Inspection 9 DOM
-
2026-06-03statusdays on market $325,000 Contingent - Inspection 8 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $325,000 Active 7 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $325,000 Active 6 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $325,000 Active 5 DOM
-
2026-05-15$325,000 Active
-
2026-05-13historical
-
2017-04-18soldstatus $192,000 Sold 513-char remark
Show marketing remark (513 chars)
Delightful single-owner split entry home has 3 large bedrooms with hardwood floors on upper level! This smoke-free & pet-free home has a large family room with wood burning fireplace & new carpet in lower level. Rough-in for additional bath & 4th bedroom down. Kitchen features new dishwasher, hood & gas range. Central foyer leads to beautiful LR with south facing sliding doors that open to a large deck with steps to fenced back yard. Low maintenance exterior & large 2-car attached garage.
-
2017-04-10status Pending 513-char remark
Show marketing remark (513 chars)
Delightful single-owner split entry home has 3 large bedrooms with hardwood floors on upper level! This smoke-free & pet-free home has a large family room with wood burning fireplace & new carpet in lower level. Rough-in for additional bath & 4th bedroom down. Kitchen features new dishwasher, hood & gas range. Central foyer leads to beautiful LR with south facing sliding doors that open to a large deck with steps to fenced back yard. Low maintenance exterior & large 2-car attached garage.
-
2017-02-20historical Contingent - Inspection 513-char remark
Show marketing remark (513 chars)
Delightful single-owner split entry home has 3 large bedrooms with hardwood floors on upper level! This smoke-free & pet-free home has a large family room with wood burning fireplace & new carpet in lower level. Rough-in for additional bath & 4th bedroom down. Kitchen features new dishwasher, hood & gas range. Central foyer leads to beautiful LR with south facing sliding doors that open to a large deck with steps to fenced back yard. Low maintenance exterior & large 2-car attached garage.
-
2017-02-17$179,500 Active 513-char remark
Show marketing remark (513 chars)
Delightful single-owner split entry home has 3 large bedrooms with hardwood floors on upper level! This smoke-free & pet-free home has a large family room with wood burning fireplace & new carpet in lower level. Rough-in for additional bath & 4th bedroom down. Kitchen features new dishwasher, hood & gas range. Central foyer leads to beautiful LR with south facing sliding doors that open to a large deck with steps to fenced back yard. Low maintenance exterior & large 2-car attached garage.
-
1971-04-01soldstatus $31,250
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $3,483 · $290/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $3,561 · $297/mo
- Expected delta
- +$79/yr (+$7/mo · 2.3%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $19,210
- − Mortgage interest
- −$18,205
- − Property taxes
- −$3,483
- − Insurance
- −$1,625
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,537
- − Management
- −$1,537
- − Depreciation
- −$9,455
- Taxable loss
- −$16,631
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$3,991
- After-tax cash flow
- $-6,393/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Osseo Public School District
- NCES district ID
- 2725200
- Math proficiency
- 42% ▼ -7.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 51% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $76,168
- Composite
- 42.35/100
- National rank
- #3250
- State rank
- #129 of 301 in MN
Livability — Brooklyn Park
- Score
- 81/100
- State rank
- #50
- US rank
- #1308
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Brooklyn Park, MN
- County
- Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
- City population
- 33,660
- Metro
- Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
- Population (ZIP)
- 33,660
- Household income
- $95,082
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 968.0
Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,405,227 people
- By 2030
- 1,492,650 · +6.2%
- By 2040
- 1,660,157 · +18.1%
- By 2050
- 1,823,498 · +29.8%
- By 2075
- 2,221,283 · +58.1%
- By 2100
- 2,509,976 · +78.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 40% Black 30% Asian 19% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
- Common ancestry
- Portuguese 7% Swiss 4% Romanian 3%
- Foreign-born
- 25% · Vietnam, Canada, South Korea
- Languages at home
- 71% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 10% Vietnamese 4% Spanish 2%
Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin
- 2024 margin
- Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -199.26%
- Current HPI
- 206.3855
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 6.26%
- Metro
- Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.41%
- F500 in state
- 34
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 2 | $407B |
|
||
| Retail | 2 | $150B |
|
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| Consumer Goods | 2 | $32B |
|
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| Industrial Machinery | 2 | $6B |
|
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| Agriculture | 1 | $40B |
|
||
| Healthcare / Medical Devices | 1 | $32B |
|
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Price history
+940.0% since first listed10 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-08 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-06-02 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-05-29 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-05-15 Listed $325,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-05-13 Coming Soon $325,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2017-04-18 Sold (MLS) $192,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2017-04-10 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2017-02-20 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2017-02-17 Listed $179,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 1971-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $31,250 Public Records
Property tax history
+3.5%/yrLatest (2025): $3,483 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…