1410 Splashing Wave Dr · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$281,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,412 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $200/sqft · 9% below area Est $310k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Hello and welcome to 1410 Splashing Wave Drive! Welcome to the Bellvue plan-a charming one-story home offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage across 1,412 square feet of smartly designed living space. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or simply looking for a well-balanced layout, this plan offers comfort and efficiency in a stylish package. Step inside through the covered front entry into a bright and open foyer that leads into the heart of the home. The open-concept kitchen, dining area, and family room are ideal for both everyday living and casual entertaining.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 57 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $282k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1917 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $232,505 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.70%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,740
• List price: $281,990
• Delta: -8.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9123 Serene Haven Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,412 (0%)	2mo	$274,990	$195	97
1518 Shimmering Ocean Way	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,412 (0%)	1mo	$264,990	$188	95
9011 Serene Hvn	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,412 (0%)	5mo	$288,490	$204	91
9418 Sky Blue Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,393 (-1%)	2mo	$225,000	$162	78
1511 Shimmering Ocean Way	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+13%)	5mo	$299,990	$188	69
9438 Sapphire Creek Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,393 (-1%)	2mo	$225,000	$162	69
1527 Shimmering Ocean Way	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+13%)	4mo	$298,490	$187	69
1607 Knox Hill Path	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+13%)	4mo	$299,990	$188	66
9211 Waldrick Trace Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,561 (+11%)	2mo	$265,000	$170	57
1819 Opal Peach Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+13%)	4mo	$240,000	$150	51
9810 Steel Knot Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,581 (+12%)	5mo	$235,000	$149	48
9803 Garnet Grove Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,597 (+13%)	2mo	$243,900	$153	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-58,631
• Equity at exit: $42,046

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-82,861
• Equity at exit: $24,381

Cash invested: $78,957 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 28 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.0 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $250,000 ($169/sqft)
• Median days on market: 47 d
• This list price: 71% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +30.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1917
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,325 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,479
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$352 /mo · $4,230/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,467

Max offer price $265,786

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $-15	+0% $-112	+5% $-209	+10% $-307
Rent	-10% $-296	-5% $-204	+0% $-112	+5% $-20	+10% $72
Rate	-1.0pp $30	-0.5pp $-40	base $-112	+0.5pp $-185	+1.0pp $-259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,498
• Closing costs: $8,460
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	153d	1	0.44mi
1214 Emerald Stone Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$1,965	$1.07	41d	1	0.48mi
9418 Olive Stone Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,025	$1.10	1d	1	0.51mi
9207 Penfield Dr Arcola, TX	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,051	$1.10	73d	1	0.51mi
9806 Steelknot Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,400	$1.01	90d	1	0.59mi
9806 Steelknot Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,400	$1.01	10d	1	0.59mi
2107 Golden Topaz Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,675	$1.20	6d	1	0.73mi
2131 Golden Topaz Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,700	$1.22	1d	1	0.78mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,836	$1.15	113d	1	0.87mi
8219 House Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,970	$1.56	163d	1	1.02mi
8419 Ideal Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,125	$1.16	69d	1	1.03mi
2510 Green Jasper Dr Iowa Colony, TX	3.0	2.0	1561	$1,995	$1.28	10d	1	1.07mi
715 Harvest Bluff Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,900	$1.06	12d	1	1.10mi
715 Harvest Bluff Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,900	$1.06	10d	1	1.10mi
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,100	$1.49	10d	1	1.13mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	184d	1	1.14mi
2523 Topaz Hill Ln Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1857	$2,525	$1.36	10d	1	1.18mi
8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,300	$1.25	10d	1	1.18mi
8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,300	$1.25	184d	1	1.18mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1770	$2,443	$1.38	0d	16	1.19mi
8318 Oakleaf Meadow Ct Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,760	$1.28	35d	1	1.24mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1751	$2,568	$1.47	31d	9	1.28mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,469	$1.43	184d	7	1.28mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1751	$2,568	$1.47	0d	9	1.28mi
8102 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,830	$1.54	104d	1	1.31mi
10610 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,700	$1.74	123d	1	1.38mi
10502 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,725	$1.69	128d	1	1.38mi
10507 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,650	$1.71	115d	1	1.38mi
10507 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1596	$2,639	$1.65	0d	1	1.39mi
10611 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,663	$1.50	10d	1	1.39mi
10607 Crescent Peak Ct Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,615	$1.62	6d	1	1.39mi
10622 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,775	$1.56	10d	1	1.41mi
10332 Ritter Run Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,749	$1.07	3d	1	1.42mi
10522 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,592	$1.70	3d	1	1.43mi
1222 Crescent Peak Ct Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,447	$1.58	115d	1	1.44mi
10638 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1628	$2,700	$1.66	10d	1	1.46mi
10537 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,568	$1.58	0d	1	1.46mi
10534 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	1804	$2,827	$1.57	0d	1	1.46mi
10642 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,568	$1.58	10d	1	1.47mi
10538 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,539	$1.67	99d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $281,990 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $301,990 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $301,990 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $301,990 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $301,990 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $301,990 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-04-10
   listed $287,490 Active 1370-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,901
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,796
• − Property taxes: −$4,230
• − Insurance: −$1,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,232
• − Management: −$2,232
• − Depreciation: −$8,203
• Taxable loss: −$6,202
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,489
• After-tax cash flow: $145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathroom, well-maintained exterior, and hardwood flooring. It is move-in ready and has the potential for minor updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B