8146 Panay Dr · Houston, TX 77033

$152,240

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1952 6,141 sqft lot Est $152k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful 3 bedroom 1 1/2 bath house has been remodeled. This house has a wonderful flow to it, from the kitchen which has granite countertops and a stainless steel gas range that will be installed, to the breakfast area and to the living room. Brand new luxury vinyl tile, and carpet has been installed. Ceiling fans, brand new light fixtures, and fresh paint throughout. It features a huge indoor utility room, one car carport, and let's not forget about the oversized backyard for your next family gathering. This cozy home won't last long, call now to schedule an appointment.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Conveniently located
• 6,141 sq ft lot

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• PRACTICAL KITCHEN SPACE
• WELCOMING LIVING AREA
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Carport for 1 vehicle
• Utilities: Has heating and cooling
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first-floor living); Full ownership
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1952
• Exterior features: Private yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 9 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 9 x 9)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Window treatments; Ceiling fan(s); Kitchen/dining combo; Window coverings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $152k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $152k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodson School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 572 students, 99% FRL); Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,956 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.19%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8126 Marcy Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+11%)	1mo	$195,000	$157	69
5007 Northridge Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,069 (-5%)	2mo	$163,900	$153	67
4842 Larkspur St	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+7%)	2mo	$200,000	$167	66
5602 Beldart St	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,173 (+5%)	3mo	$160,000	$136	65
4737 Alvin St	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,216 (+9%)	5mo	$95,000	$78	64
5318 Longmeadow St	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,138 (+2%)	3mo	$125,000	$110	59
7713 St Lo Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,151 (+3%)	4mo	$199,900	$174	58
4637 Carmen St	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,084 (-3%)	2mo	$135,000	$125	53
4918 Carmen St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,258 (+12%)	1mo	$213,000	$169	51
5306 Kenilwood Dr	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,038 (-7%)	5mo	$80,000	$77	49
5622 Beldart St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,002 (-10%)	2mo	$120,000	$120	47
5234 Wilmington St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,230 (+10%)	1mo	$76,500	$62	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $777
• Equity at exit: $22,699

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $47,491
• Equity at exit: $13,163

Cash invested: $42,627 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77033

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,815 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$798
• Tax from tax record: −$246 /mo · $2,950/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,402

Max offer price $152,240

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $413	-5% $370	+0% $327	+5% $283	+10% $240
Rent	-10% $183	-5% $255	+0% $327	+5% $398	+10% $470
Rate	-1.0pp $403	-0.5pp $365	base $327	+0.5pp $287	+1.0pp $247

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,060
• Closing costs: $4,567
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7918 Jutland Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	996	$1,295	$1.30	45d	1	0.36mi
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	45d	1	0.36mi
5222 Northridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,850	$1.42	25d	1	0.40mi
5314 Northridge Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,185	$1.36	45d	1	0.43mi
5407 Thrush Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1407	$1,495	$1.06	15d	1	0.46mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	6d	1	0.50mi
5623 Bellfort St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1320	$1,700	$1.29	16d	1	0.54mi
8107 Calhoun Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1304	$2,250	$1.73	25d	1	0.61mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	45d	1	0.65mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	16d	1	0.66mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	14d	1	0.66mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	45d	1	0.69mi
7818 Calhoun Rd Unit 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	45d	1	0.71mi
4609 Bricker St Unit C Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,200	$2.91	14d	1	0.75mi
4609 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$3,500	$2.69	14d	1	0.75mi
4609 Bricker St Unit ABC Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1375	$3,500	$2.55	13d	1	0.75mi
4615 Redbud St Unit b Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,149	$1.32	25d	1	0.78mi
5767 Belcrest St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1480	$1,790	$1.21	45d	1	0.86mi
4410 Bellfort Ave Unit 4404 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	812	$999	$1.23	9d	1	0.86mi
5818 Glenhurst Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,750	$1.21	0d	1	0.95mi
4530 Mayflower St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,800	$1.38	45d	1	0.97mi
9509 Merle St Unit 9509A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1404	$1,500	$1.07	45d	1	0.97mi
4326 Larkspur St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	18d	1	0.97mi
4207 Phlox St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$962	$1.31	0d	2	1.08mi
5942 Ridgeway Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1490	$2,250	$1.51	45d	1	1.08mi
4205 Phlox St Unit 2 BEDROOM 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$860	$1.17	19d	1	1.10mi
4117 Shelby Cir Unit 1230900P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1367	$5,253	$3.84	0d	1	1.16mi
5408 Groveton St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1472	$1,983	$1.35	0d	1	1.19mi
4942 Bataan Rd Unit 77033 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	45d	1	1.20mi
4205 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	25d	1	1.35mi
5954 Doolittle Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,575	$1.15	45d	1	1.38mi
9414 Heno St Unit 13 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	25d	1	1.39mi
4112 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	711	$700	$0.98	12d	1	1.41mi
7823 Gladstone St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	45d	1	1.46mi
8328 Corinth St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	21d	1	1.46mi
7826 Gladstone St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	760	$1,250	$1.64	0d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $152,240 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $152,240 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $152,240 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $152,240 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $152,240 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $152,240 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $152,240 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $152,240 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 658-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $152,240 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,950 · $246/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,950 · $246/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,785
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,528
• − Property taxes: −$2,950
• − Insurance: −$761
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,743
• − Management: −$1,743
• − Depreciation: −$4,429
• Taxable income: $1,632
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$392
• After-tax cash flow: $3,527/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,154
• Household income: $38,071
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1728.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 17% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.49%
• Current HPI: 212.6472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+155.0% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $152,240 HARMLS
• 2023-07-31 Rental Removed $1,300 RENTLY
• 2023-07-26 Price Changed $1,300 RENTLY
• 2023-07-18 Price Changed $1,305 RENTLY
• 2019-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-10-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-10-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-10-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-10-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-09-05 Price Changed $124,900 HARMLS
• 2019-08-19 Price Changed $129,900 HARMLS
• 2019-08-01 Price Changed $134,900 HARMLS
• 2019-07-12 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2015-02-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-01-13 Listed $79,000 HARMLS
• 2013-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-10-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-04-03 Listed $55,000 HARMLS
• 2010-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-07-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-05-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-04-14 Listed $49,900 HARMLS
• 2010-02-17 Listed $58,900 HARMLS
• 2007-09-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-04-29 Listed $72,000 HARMLS
• 2007-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-04-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-04-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-12-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-04-29 Listed $57,900 HARMLS
• 2005-01-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-07-29 Listed $59,700 HARMLS
• 1996-03-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,950 · -7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.