10149 Royal Dr · Castle Point, MO 63136

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 945 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1970 6,499 sqft lot $101/sqft · 43% above area Est $66k · 43% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all investors!!! Here's another turnkey property to add to your growing portfolio. Occupied by a long-term tenant at $1039/month, leased through 1/31/27. No showings without an accepted contract. Please do not disturb tenants.

Key facts

• 6,499 sq ft lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 68 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#313 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.33%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $66,282
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 43.33%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9984 Duke Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0	960 (+2%)	1mo	$54,000	$56	83
10117 Royal Dr	0.07mi	3/1.0	864 (-9%)	1mo	$35,000	$41	82
10127 Monarch Dr	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,015 (+7%)	1mo	$155,000	$153	68
10236 Monarch Dr	0.35mi	3/1.5	850 (-10%)	1mo	$35,000	$41	64
10128 Ashbrook Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0	912 (-4%)	1mo	$130,000	$143	64
10501 Baron Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0	888 (-6%)	2mo	$99,000	$111	63
10417 Prince Dr	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,040 (+10%)	2mo	$120,000	$115	63
9828 Omega Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	988 (+5%)	0mo	$100,000	$101	60
9850 Monarch Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,014 (+7%)	2mo	$99,900	$99	60
2442 Gardner Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,054 (+12%)	2mo	$59,900	$57	56
10557 Castle Dr	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,023 (+8%)	1mo	$110,000	$108	56
10231 Monarch Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,073 (+14%)	1mo	$189,999	$177	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $42,481
• Equity at exit: $47,005

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.37×
• Total profit: $116,171
• Equity at exit: $75,968

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,263 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $910/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $777

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $438	-5% $411	+0% $384	+5% $357	+10% $330
Rent	-10% $284	-5% $334	+0% $384	+5% $434	+10% $484
Rate	-1.0pp $432	-0.5pp $408	base $384	+0.5pp $359	+1.0pp $334

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10139 Royal Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1016	$900	$0.89	44d	1	0.04mi
10113 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	770	$1,325	$1.72	44d	1	0.09mi
10112 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	8d	1	0.21mi
10113 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	882	$775	$0.88	44d	1	0.23mi
10404 Earl Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	5d	1	0.33mi
10365 Lord Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	3d	1	0.33mi
2326 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	24d	1	0.34mi
10421 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,275	$1.25	24d	1	0.37mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	24d	1	0.38mi
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	23d	1	0.39mi
2321 Noll Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	24d	1	0.44mi
1520 Attica Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,200	$1.13	24d	1	0.44mi
10512 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,195	$1.35	15d	1	0.52mi
10504 Baron Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	8d	1	0.53mi
10557 Castle Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,300	$1.27	15d	1	0.59mi
13061 Lord Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,040	$1.16	23d	1	0.60mi
9744 Lanier Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,345	$1.33	44d	1	0.66mi
9723 Portage Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	8d	1	0.74mi
1255 Bosworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1071	$1,575	$1.47	11d	1	0.77mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	24d	1	0.78mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	15d	1	0.80mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	18d	1	0.80mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	24d	1	0.92mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	44d	1	0.92mi
1230 Roxton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	23d	1	0.92mi
10200 Tappan Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,450	$1.59	17d	1	0.95mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	8d	1	0.98mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	44d	1	1.01mi
1115 Bakewell Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	916	$1,300	$1.42	44d	1	1.02mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	4d	1	1.03mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	24d	1	1.06mi
10367 Coburg Lands Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,270	$1.39	44d	1	1.06mi
2008 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	858	$1,175	$1.37	24d	1	1.07mi
1926 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1095	$995	$0.91	15d	1	1.11mi
1130 Forest Home Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,275	$1.24	44d	1	1.11mi
1208 Rapid Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	992	$1,375	$1.39	5d	1	1.12mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	24d	1	1.15mi
1009 Bliss Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	44d	1	1.16mi
10508 Druid Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,475	$1.31	17d	1	1.18mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	8d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    listed $95,000 Active 235-char remark

    Show marketing remark (235 chars)

    Calling all investors!!! Here's another turnkey property to add to your growing portfolio. Occupied by a long-term tenant at $1039/month, leased through 1/31/27. No showings without an accepted contract. Please do not disturb tenants.

17. 2026-01-29
    price $99,900
18. 2025-10-22
    price $110,000
19. 2025-08-02
    price $119,900
20. 2025-05-22
    listed $125,000 Active
21. 2022-08-04
    soldstatus
22. 2022-02-23
    soldstatus $122,500
23. 2021-09-15
    soldstatus $20,000
24. 2021-09-15
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $910 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $922 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$11/yr (+$1/mo · 1.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,155
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$910
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,212
• − Management: −$1,212
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $3,260
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$782
• After-tax cash flow: $3,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Castle Point

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #14373

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Castle Point, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+375.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $95,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $99,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $110,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-02 Price Changed $119,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Listed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $122,500 Public Records
• 2021-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $910 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.