127 Longridge Rd · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$189,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 897 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1977 0.46 ac lot $211/sqft · 23% below area Est $247k · 24% under $250/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

CUTE AS A BUTTON! COMPLETELY RENOVATED 2 BEDROOM 2 BATHROOM HOME WITH NEW KITCHEN, NEW APPLIANCES AND DECK. WALK TO ELM BEACH.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• New appliances
• Deck

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES
• DECK
• WALK TO ELM BEACH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $460 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $186k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 7.1% in Hemlock Farms — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 374 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $189k implies a 238% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $186,165 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.42%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,494
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -23.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
126 Rockwood Dr	0.40mi	2/1.0	885 (-1%)	19mo	$169,000	$191	60
108 Farrier Ln	0.46mi	2/1.5	1,016 (+13%)	10mo	$200,000	$197	46
121 Maple Ridge Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,024 (+14%)	17mo	$150,000	$146	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $132,369
• Equity at exit: $170,266

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.94×
• Total profit: $367,119
• Equity at exit: $367,185

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,347/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $460

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,918

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $567	-5% $513	+0% $460	+5% $406	+10% $353
Rent	-10% $262	-5% $361	+0% $460	+5% $558	+10% $657
Rate	-1.0pp $555	-0.5pp $508	base $460	+0.5pp $411	+1.0pp $361

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
811 Hickory Ct Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	0d	1	0.89mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 126-char remark

   Show marketing remark (126 chars)

   CUTE AS A BUTTON! COMPLETELY RENOVATED 2 BEDROOM 2 BATHROOM HOME WITH NEW KITCHEN, NEW APPLIANCES AND DECK. WALK TO ELM BEACH.

2. 2026-05-03
   status Active 126-char remark

   Show marketing remark (126 chars)

   CUTE AS A BUTTON! COMPLETELY RENOVATED 2 BEDROOM 2 BATHROOM HOME WITH NEW KITCHEN, NEW APPLIANCES AND DECK. WALK TO ELM BEACH.

3. 2026-04-21
   status Pending 126-char remark

   Show marketing remark (126 chars)

   CUTE AS A BUTTON! COMPLETELY RENOVATED 2 BEDROOM 2 BATHROOM HOME WITH NEW KITCHEN, NEW APPLIANCES AND DECK. WALK TO ELM BEACH.

4. 2026-04-13
   listed $189,000 Active 126-char remark

   Show marketing remark (126 chars)

   CUTE AS A BUTTON! COMPLETELY RENOVATED 2 BEDROOM 2 BATHROOM HOME WITH NEW KITCHEN, NEW APPLIANCES AND DECK. WALK TO ELM BEACH.

5. 2024-11-27
   soldstatus $56,000
6. 2024-11-08
   soldstatus $56,000 Closed 152-char remark

   Show marketing remark (152 chars)

   Such a Deal!! Not far from Elm Beach. This little gem has great potential for the right buyer. This is an ''as is'' sale and will require a cash buyer.

7. 2024-10-23
   status Pending 152-char remark

   Show marketing remark (152 chars)

   Such a Deal!! Not far from Elm Beach. This little gem has great potential for the right buyer. This is an ''as is'' sale and will require a cash buyer.

8. 2024-10-11
   listed $75,000 Active 152-char remark

   Show marketing remark (152 chars)

   Such a Deal!! Not far from Elm Beach. This little gem has great potential for the right buyer. This is an ''as is'' sale and will require a cash buyer.

9. 2003-12-18
   soldstatus $62,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,347 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,667 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$320/yr (+$27/mo · 13.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,347
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $2,823
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$678
• After-tax cash flow: $4,837/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+202.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — PWMLS
• 2026-05-03 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — PWMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $189,000 PWMLS
• 2024-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 2024-11-08 Sold (MLS) $56,000 PWMLS
• 2024-10-23 Pending — PWMLS
• 2024-10-11 Listed $75,000 PWMLS
• 2003-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,347 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.