18265 Split Oak Cir · Porter Heights, TX 77357

$99,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2001 0.77 ac lot $55/sqft · 46% below area Est $185k · 46% under ↓ 23% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated on a 0.76-acre lot in New Caney, TX, this 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom double wide mobile home offers 1,792 sq ft of space and strong potential for redevelopment or renovation. The home is in need of significant updating and repairs and may be best suited for removal, depending on buyer plans. The property itself features a partially cleared landscape with mature trees providing ample shade and privacy. With plenty of room to build or bring in a new home, this property presents a flexible opportunity for investors or buyers looking to create something new. Conveniently located with access to major roadways and growing area amenities. Sold as-is and priced accordingly.

Key facts

• 0.76-acre lot
• Ample shade
• Privacy

Tags

• 0.76-ACRE LOT
• PARTIALLY CLEARED LANDSCAPE
• MATURE TREES
• AMPLE SHADE
• PRIVACY
• ACCESS TO MAJOR ROADWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area approximately 1,792; Living area approximately 1,792; Lot size about 0.7656 acres
• Financial info: Lease not allowed
• HOA & community: HOA details not listed

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not listed
• Security: Security details not listed
• Utilities: Utilities details not listed
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2001
• Construction: Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen details not listed
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms count not specified
• Flooring: Flooring details not listed
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details not listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.2% vs local median 2.5% in Porter Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#663 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 979 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.92%
• DSCR: 3.04
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,733
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -46.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17986 Split Oak Cir	0.15mi	4/2.0	2,000 (+12%)	3mo	$124,900	$62	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $45,622
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.75×
• Total profit: $103,849
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,039/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $1,061

Break-even live

Break-even rent $819

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $99,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $119,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    listed $129,000 Active 678-char remark
15. 2026-04-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,039 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$772/yr (+$64/mo · 74.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,039
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,075
• − Management: −$2,075
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $11,830
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,839
• After-tax cash flow: $9,890/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter Heights

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #663
• US rank: #12479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,039 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.